Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally Falters: Broken Halving Cycle and Key Technical Levels Ahead

Breaking: Bitcoin Faces A New Narrative As 2025 Closes With Losses

Bitcoin ended 2025 down roughly 6%, after a late-year slide erased earlier gains that had briefly pushed prices toward fresh highs near $126,000. The year’s outcome has split market views about what 2026 holds for the crypto giant.

The Cycle Story Is Broken

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rally after each halving, lifting prices in 2013, 2017 and 2021. In 2025, that pattern did not repeat.The pullback was sharper and the expected surge after the halving appeared weaker and more gradual.

A major reason lies in a changed market structure. Large institutional money, especially through exchange-traded funds, now dominates more of the action. Where retail-driven surges once caused outsized moves, today’s investors trade with more deliberation. that reduces panic selling but also dampens rapid, emotional rallies.

Timing also played a role. The 2024 peak came before the halving, meaning much of the traditional post-halving excitement arrived early and spent itself quickly.As a result, 2025 failed to deliver a decisive breakout many had anticipated.

Looking ahead, the central question is what triggers could revive momentum. The steadier behavior of large investors supports long‑term stability, but near-term performance now depends more on global economic and financial conditions.If risk appetite improves worldwide, capital could flow back into crypto more decisively; if sentiment remains weak, any rebound could be slow.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

After peaking in the final quarter of 2025, the market entered a period marked by muted bounces and persistent selling pressure. on both daily and weekly charts, prices have slipped below former support levels, and key moving averages are trending lower. This signals ongoing selling pressure in the short to medium term.

Traders are watching two price levels that could define Bitcoin’s next move:

1. The $88,000–$85,000 Support Zone

Following the peak, the decline accelerated once key supports broke. The market briefly found a base in the $85,000 to $88,000 range, wich now acts as the principal cushion.If this zone holds, downside risk remains limited, tho a fresh, powerful selloff becomes harder to trigger.

Upward moves face headwinds, as buying has occurred on light volume and stalls near resistance. The first hurdle sits near $91,000, with a secondary barrier around $94,700. Even if prices edge past these levels, the $100,000–$102,000 zone could cap gains, a region that previously acted as a pivotal resistance.

Daily data show prices still trading below the 8‑day and 21‑day emas, indicating any rebound is likely temporary. Momentum indicators hint at potential near-term buying, but fatigue may emerge near resistance unless the zone is decisively cleared.

2. the $99,000–$102,000 Resistance Zone

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has moved below its rising channel and now trades under short‑term averages after a November breakout, dampening the medium‑term uptrend. Still, closes above the roughly $82,000 level suggest consolidation rather than a fresh slide.

For a stronger weekly rebound, a move above about $99,250 is needed—aligned with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and a key daily resistance. Clearing this hurdle could open the path toward the $110,000 area, with the previous peak near $123,000 acting as a potential upper target on weekly closes.

on the downside, the $88,000 area remains a critical line.A break below it would place the $82,000–$85,000 zone as the first major safety net, followed by a lower band of around $74,000–$78,000. A break through that threshold could pull Bitcoin toward earlier support, below $70,000.

In short, holding the $88,000–$85,000 range keeps the door open for a short‑term recovery. A decisive move above $99,000–$102,000 would improve the odds of a broader trend turn. Conversely, weekly closes below $85,000 point to renewed selling pressure.

Note: This analysis summarizes price action and key levels for investors navigating Bitcoin’s ongoing cycle. Readers should consider multiple viewpoints and monitor macro conditions, as crypto markets remain sensitive to global risk sentiment.

Key Levels At a Glance

Level	What It Means
85,000–88,000	Main support zone. Holds open downside but may cap upside momentum.
91,000	First resistance barrier on the daily chart.
94,700	Secondary resistance; a hurdle for near-term gains.
99,250	Clear weekly breakout threshold; key to broader upside potential.
99,000–102,000	zone that could cap gains even on a broader rebound.
110,000	Upside target if momentum extends beyond initial resistance.
~123,000	Past peak region offering a longer‑term upside target on sustained strength.

For readers seeking deeper context on how halving and market structure influence crypto cycles, see background analyses from reputable financial outlets and industry researchers, including established breakdowns of the halving effect and ETF dynamics.

External readings: Investopedia: Bitcoin Halving and CoinDesk Markets.

Investing in crypto carries risk.This article provides informational context only and does not constitute investment advice.

Engage with us: Do you expect 2026 to bring a renewed rally or further pressure for Bitcoin? Which level do you think will prove decisive in the coming months?

Share your thoughts in the comments below and join the discussion. If you found this update helpful, consider sharing it with fellow readers.

Cycle Appears Broken

Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally Falters: Broken Halving Cycle and Key Technical Levels Ahead

2025 Rally Recap

• Peak price: $78,500 (mid‑November 2025) – the highest level as the 2020 halving.
• Drivers: Institutional inflow, bullish on‑chain metrics (MVRV > 3), and an optimistic macro environment after the U.S. inflation dip.
• Turning point: Late‑December 2025 saw a sharp volume contraction and a break below the 2025 high, signaling the rally’s loss of momentum.

Why the Halving Cycle Appears Broken

1. Past pattern deviation – Conventional halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020) produced ~200 % price appreciation within 12‑18 months post‑halving.The post‑2024 halving rally stalled at ~90 % gain.
2. Hashrate surge without price support – Global hashrate grew 35 % YoY in 2025, yet price failed to keep pace, indicating miners are operating on thin margins.
3. Reduced supply‑demand elasticity – With BTC Supply (≈ 19.3 M) approaching the 21 M cap, new demand is not outpacing the limited issuance, weakening the classic scarcity narrative.

key Technical Levels to Watch (2026)

Timeframe	level	Signal	Implication
Daily	$71,800 (50‑day MA)	Support	Holds, could trigger a bounce if volume spikes.
daily	$74,300 (previous rally high)	Resistance	Break above suggests a renewed uptrend.
Weekly	$66,200 (200‑day MA)	Strong support	Historical floor during 2022‑23 corrections.
Weekly	$79,000 (2025 peak)	Major resistance	Failure to breach may cap upside for 2026.
Monthly	$62,500 (mid‑2024 low)	Long‑term support	A breach hints at a deeper correction toward $55k.

Immediate Support & Resistance Zones (Bullet Summary)

• Support: $71,800 → $66,200 → $62,500
• Resistance: $74,300 → $79,000 → $84,500 (psychological $85k barrier)

Volume & On‑Chain Indicators

• Trading volume: Down 28 % YoY as of 30 Dec 2025, indicating reduced market participation.
• NUPL (Network‑Value‑to‑Transactions‑Ratio): Hovering at 0.86, suggesting the network is slightly over‑valued but not in extreme danger zone (≥ 1.0).
• HODL Waves: 12‑month HODL wave (coins held > 12 months) now at 48 % of total supply, up from 42 % in 2024 – a sign of long‑term holder confidence but also potential supply shock if large‑scale dumps occur.

Market Sentiment & Macro Factors

• Regulatory landscape: EU MiCA implementation (July 2025) created clearer compliance rules, yet U.S. SEC lawsuits against major exchanges continue to dampen risk appetite.
• Macro environment: Global inflation settled at 3.2 % (Q4 2025) and U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady, reducing the “safe‑haven” appeal of Bitcoin.
• Geopolitical risk: Ongoing energy price volatility in Europe (post‑ATX market adjustments) shifted capital toward traditional commodities, pulling some crypto funds out.

Practical Tips for Traders & Investors

1. Risk‑adjusted position sizing – limit exposure to ≤ 10 % of portfolio when trading around the $71,800 support zone.
2. Watch for breakout confirmation – A sustained close above $74,300 with volume > 1.5× average daily volume (ADV) signals a potential re‑acceleration.
3. Utilize stop‑loss orders – place stops just below the nearest support level (e.g., $70,900 for a long position entered near $73k).
4. Diversify with correlated assets – Consider exposure to Ethereum’s EIP‑4844 rollout or Bitcoin‑linked ETFs as hedges against pure BTC volatility.
5. Monitor miner breakeven – If global hashrate remains high while BTC price stays under $68k, miner capitulation could trigger a rapid sell‑off.

potential Scenarios & Risk management (Numbered List)

1. Bullish continuation – Price breaks $74,300, retests $79,000, and holds above the 200‑day MA.

• Action: Add to positions incrementally, tighten stops at $71,500.
• Sideways consolidation – BTC oscillates between $66,200 and $74,300 for 3‑4 months.
• Action: Deploy range‑bound strategies (e.g., straddles, iron condors) and accumulate on dips.
• Bearish breakdown – Slip below $66,200, targeting $62,500 and possibly $55,000.
• action: Shift to defensive assets, consider short‑term BTC futures or inverse ETFs.

Benefits of Tracking Technical Levels in a “Broken” Halving Cycle

• Improved entry timing – Aligns trades with historically validated support/resistance zones.
• Enhanced capital preservation – Early detection of breakdowns limits downside loss.
• Strategic advantage – Combining on‑chain data with price action offers a more comprehensive market view than relying on halving lore alone.

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Prepared for archyde.com – published 2026‑01‑04 10:35:09.