Bitcoin’s Wave of Momentum Signals $136K Target by Year’s End

Bitcoin Poised for Further Gains as Bullish Setup Strengthens

Archyde Exclusive: Bitcoin’s (BTC) upward trajectory shows no signs of slowing, with technical analysis suggesting a robust bullish pattern is in play, perhaps pushing the cryptocurrency towards significant new highs. In a recent update, analysts using the Elliott Wave (EW) principle highlighted a completed correction phase, paving the way for further appreciation.

Previously, when Bitcoin was trading around the $107,250 mark, the analysis indicated that the rally from the June 22 low was the initial upward impulse wave (gray W-i). A subsequent brief pullback (gray W-ii) was identified as a final opportunity to join the bullish trend, with a target of at least $136,000. The forecast also anticipated further upside, projecting potential reaches of $174,000 and beyond, following a standard fibonacci-based path.

Since then,the gray Wave-i saw its peak on June 25 at $108,196.A corrective move, gray W-ii, brought the price down to $150,143 six days later. The current phase, gray W-iii, is now in progress, having already reached a high of $123,220 on July 14. This progression aligns precisely with the validated Fibonacci-based EW analysis, demonstrating its reliability in predicting market movements.

Evergreen Insight: The Elliott Wave Principle, a form of technical analysis, posits that market prices move in predictable wave patterns reflecting the collective psychology of investors. By identifying these patterns, traders aim to anticipate future price movements. While not a guarantee, its historical submission can offer valuable context for understanding market sentiment and potential trend continuations.

Furthermore, a developing bullish flag pattern, previously identified, remains active. A breakout above its upper descending trendline continues to target approximately $136,000. This target level coincides with a key Fibonacci extension point (100.00%) from the June 22 low, representing a common target for the third wave within a larger impulse pattern (gray W-iii of the green W-3).

The current market structure indicates that Bitcoin may be nearing the completion of the fourth wave (orange W-4) within the gray W-iii. Upon its conclusion,the subsequent fifth wave (orange W-5) is expected to drive prices towards the $136,000 target.

Evergreen Insight: Chart patterns like the “bull flag” are often interpreted by traders as continuation signals. A bull flag typically forms after a strong upward price move, characterized by a period of consolidation within a narrowing price range. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of this pattern can signal a resumption of the prior uptrend.

With only four waves identified so far from the gray W-ii low, another upward move is necessary to complete the gray W-iii, as impulse formations require at least five waves. The broader outlook remains highly optimistic, with the current setup supporting an overall target range of $164,000 to $216,000 by year-end, based on Fibonacci extensions reaching 176.4% and targeting $164,913. This suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned for continued gains in the foreseeable future.

What specific on-chain metrics are supporting the $136K Bitcoin price target?

Decoding the Bull Run: Key Indicators Driving Bitcoin’s Price

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a resurgence of bullish momentum, and increasingly, analysts are pointing towards a potential year-end price target of $136,000. This isn’t simply optimistic speculation; it’s rooted in a confluence of factors, including institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and on-chain metrics. Understanding these drivers is crucial for both seasoned crypto investors and those considering entering the Bitcoin market.

Institutional Investment & ETF Impact

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs earlier in 2024 marked a pivotal moment. These ETFs have opened the doors for significant institutional investment, bringing in capital that was previously hesitant to directly hold cryptocurrency.

blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC have consistently seen substantial inflows.

This demand is exceeding the new supply of Bitcoin, created through mining, creating a supply squeeze.

Continued inflows from retirement accounts and wealth management firms are expected to further fuel price recognition.

This institutional interest isn’t just about price; it’s about legitimacy.It signals a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Favoring Bitcoin

The current global economic landscape is also playing a significant role.

Inflation concerns: Persistent inflation in many major economies is driving investors towards choice stores of value, with Bitcoin frequently cited as “digital gold.”

Interest Rate Cuts: Anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks (like the Federal Reserve) are expected to reduce the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income investments, perhaps redirecting capital towards risk-on assets like bitcoin.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Global instability frequently enough leads investors to seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin’s decentralized nature offers a degree of protection against political and economic turmoil.

These macroeconomic factors are creating a favorable surroundings for Bitcoin investment.

On-Chain Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Narrative

Beyond institutional flows and macroeconomics, on-chain data provides compelling evidence supporting the $136K target.

Halving Cycle & Stock-to-Flow Model

The Bitcoin halving, which occurred in April 2024, reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions by 50%.Historically, halvings have been followed by significant price increases.

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, a popular (tho debated) analytical tool, predicts a substantial price increase following each halving.

Based on the S2F model and current market conditions, the $136,000 target aligns with projected price movements.

Past halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020) demonstrate a consistent pattern of price appreciation in the 12-18 months following the event.

Network Activity & Whale Behavior

Analyzing activity on the Bitcoin blockchain reveals further bullish signals.

active addresses: The number of active Bitcoin addresses is increasing, indicating growing network usage.

Transaction Volume: Transaction volume has surged, suggesting increased investor activity.

Whale Accumulation: Large Bitcoin holders (“whales”) are accumulating BTC, signaling confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency. Data from platforms like Glassnode shows a consistent trend of whales adding to their holdings.

Potential Roadblocks & Risk Factors

While the outlook is optimistic, it’s crucial to acknowledge potential risks.

Regulatory scrutiny: Increased regulatory scrutiny from governments worldwide coudl negatively impact Bitcoin’s price.

Market corrections: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility. Significant price corrections are always a possibility.

Black Swan Events: Unexpected events (e.g., a major security breach, a global economic crisis) could disrupt the market.

Competition from Altcoins: The rise of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) could potentially divert investment away from Bitcoin.

Navigating the Bitcoin Market: Practical Tips

For investors looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s potential, here are some practical tips:

1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This helps mitigate risk and smooth out returns.
2. Secure Storage: Store your bitcoin in a secure wallet, preferably a hardware wallet (like ledger or Trezor), to protect against hacking and theft.
3. Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your investment portfolio across different asset classes.
4. Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.
5. Long-Term perspective: Bitcoin is a long-term investment. Don’t panic sell during market downturns.

Kaspa (KAS) as a Potential Diversification Play

While Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency, exploring alternative projects like Kaspa (KAS) can offer diversification benefits.Kaspa, a layer-1 blockchain, utilizes the BlockDAG protocol, offering fast transaction speeds and scalability.