Black Friday is Dead. Long Live… Continuous Commerce?
Over $9.8 billion was spent online during Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2023 – a figure that sounds impressive, but masks a fundamental shift in how, and when, consumers shop. The traditional single-day frenzy is fading, replaced by a protracted ‘commerce season’ stretching from October through December, and increasingly, year-round. This isn’t just about retailers starting sales earlier; it’s a structural change driven by economic pressures, evolving consumer behavior, and the relentless march of e-commerce innovation.
The Erosion of the Black Friday Event
For decades, Black Friday represented the kickoff to holiday shopping, a day of doorbuster deals and chaotic crowds. But the urgency is diminishing. Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy have already begun rolling out deals weeks, even months, before the official date. Walmart’s strategy, for example, now includes multiple “event” weekends throughout November, blurring the lines of the traditional timeframe. This isn’t generosity; it’s a response to a changing landscape.
Economic Headwinds and the Rise of ‘Now’
Persistent inflation and economic uncertainty are forcing consumers to spread out their spending. Rather than waiting for a single day, shoppers are actively seeking deals as they appear, fueled by price tracking tools like CamelCamelCamel and Keepa. The desire to lock in a good price *now*, rather than risk prices rising further, is a powerful motivator. This trend is particularly pronounced with larger purchases like electronics and appliances.
The Amazon Effect and the Normalization of Discounts
Amazon’s consistent discounting throughout the year has fundamentally altered consumer expectations. Shoppers are less willing to accept full price, knowing a sale is likely just around the corner. This has forced other retailers to adopt a more aggressive promotional calendar to remain competitive. The result? Black Friday’s exclusivity as a discount destination has been severely diluted.
Beyond Black Friday: The Future of Retail Sales
The shift away from a single-day event isn’t just about timing; it’s about the entire shopping experience. Here’s what we can expect to see in the coming years:
Personalized Promotions and AI-Driven Pricing
Retailers are increasingly leveraging data analytics and artificial intelligence to offer personalized promotions tailored to individual shopping habits. Dynamic pricing, adjusting in real-time based on demand and competitor pricing, will become even more prevalent. Expect to see more targeted offers delivered via email, push notifications, and even in-app messages.
The Growth of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)
BNPL services like Affirm and Klarna are already popular, and their adoption will continue to grow, particularly among younger consumers. This allows shoppers to spread out payments over time, making larger purchases more accessible and further diminishing the need to concentrate spending on a single day.
Livestream Shopping and Immersive Experiences
Livestream shopping, popularized in China, is gaining traction in the US. This combines entertainment with e-commerce, allowing shoppers to interact with hosts and purchase products directly during a live broadcast. Expect to see more retailers experimenting with immersive shopping experiences, both online and in-store, to capture consumer attention.
The Metaverse and Virtual Shopping
While still in its early stages, the metaverse presents a potential future for retail. Virtual stores and immersive shopping experiences could offer a new level of engagement and personalization. Although widespread adoption is still years away, retailers are already exploring the possibilities.
What This Means for Consumers
The death of the traditional Black Friday isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It means more opportunities to find deals throughout the year, and less pressure to make impulsive purchases in a chaotic environment. However, it also requires more diligence. Price tracking tools are essential, and consumers need to be aware of potential “faux discounts” and markups. Don’t assume a Black Friday deal is automatically the best price – do your research.
The future of retail isn’t about a single day of sales; it’s about continuous commerce, personalized experiences, and a relentless focus on value. Staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating this evolving landscape. What strategies are you employing to find the best deals throughout the year? Share your tips in the comments below!
