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Boris Johnson faces a motion of censure this Monday that might remove him from power.
It is a vote of confidence promoted by his own party, following several Conservative lawmakers sent letters to a Conservative Party committee expressing their opposition. to the continuity of its leader.
The move comes following revelations regarding parties at various British government headquarters during the covid pandemic, a scandal known by the name of partygate.
If this is successful votingUnited Kingdom -which in the last four days has celebrated the 70th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II in front of the throne- would change its prime minister in the coming days.
Following the news, the prime minister’s office said Johnson “welcomes the opportunity to put his case before MPs” and added that tonight’s vote is “an opportunity to put an end to months of speculation and allow the government to map out a line and move on.
1. How the motion of censure works
Each political party has its own rules for the election – and removal – of its leader.
This Monday, legislator Graham Brady, at the head of the 1922 Committee that represents all conservative legislators, reported that the 15% needed to call this vote.
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Boris y Carrie Johnson.
Currently the government party has 359 parliamentarians, which means that at least 54 legislators have manifested by letter have no confidence in the prime minister.
Voting will take place between 18:00 and 20:00 local time (17:00-19:00 GMT) and votes will be counted immediately.
To avoid impeachment, and assuming all Conservative Party lawmakers vote and no one abstains, Johnson needs to secure support of a simple majority: 180 votes (half of the legislators of his party plus 1).
The vote is secret, although some deputies can make it public if they want.
In the event that he succeeds, Boris Johnson’s leadership might not be put to the test by his party for a year.
But that would not relieve him of the pressure.
And it is that the eyes will also be on the number of votes once morest the prime minister.
In December 2018, Boris Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, overcame this internal no-confidence motion, but more than a third of her lawmakers made clear opposition to her government and she announced her resignation six months later.
While that vote of no confidence took place in the midst of negotiations for Brexit, the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, this motion occurs at a time of rising cost of living in the country and the war in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The vote of confidence in Johnson’s leadership comes following months of hard criticism for the partygatea set of parties and other gatherings organized in various British government offices in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, when the population was complying with strict confinement measures.
In fact, the criticism once morest Johnson for the scandal (and added to the challenging inflationary context and other crises) was made evident on Friday, in the framework of the Jubilee celebrations of Queen Elizabeth II, when the prime minister was received with powerful boos and cheers arriving at a service of thanksgiving for the British monarch at St Paul’s Cathedral in London.
image source, ITV
A report published at the end of May confirmed that a culture of drunkenness persisted at parties in Downing Street, the seat of government, during the strict confinements that were imposed throughout the country and its author, civil servant Sue Gray, considered that many of these events “should not have been allowed”.
Johnson said he took “full responsibility for everything that happened” under his watch, but ruled out resigning.
However, for some in the UK, the partygate it’s just one of many problems that have arisen under Johnson’s leadership.
Jesse Norman, a British parliamentarian who supported the prime minister in the past, said in an interview with the BBC’s Today program on Monday that there is “a much broader set of concerns” that They go beyond of the scandal.
Norman addressed “core political issues” such as the government’s plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda and the “potential breach” of Northern Ireland’s protocol to the Brexit deal.
According to the deputy, there is a “deep concern” regarding the way politics is being handled, with the creation of “dividing lines” when a “unifying” and “positive” leadership is needed.
For this reason, he considered that it is “very important” that his colleagues vote once morest the prime minister this Monday.
3. What might happen tonight?
According to the BBC’s political correspondent Ian Watson, some of the Prime Minister’s critics are confident that around a third of his fellow MPs, between 120 and 130, will vote “definitely” once morest Johnson.
Their advocates believe they can keep the number below 100, but the number of ministers and ministerial assistants who join them will be crucial.
Boris Johnson needs you at least 180 Conservative MPs back it if you want to survive the vote of confidence in your leadership.
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Some MPs “specifically asked” to wait until the end of the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations to organize the vote of confidence, according to Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative MPs Committee.
The BBC’s political research unit puts the number of party colleagues who have publicly declared their support at 73, a number that includes most of its ministers.
But the real support that the prime minister has will be unknown until the voting ends at 20:00 local time (19:00 GMT).
The result of the confidence vote is expected to be announced an hour later.
Analysis by Iain Watson
Corpolitical correspondent of the BBC
The speculation is over. Also the spirit of celebration is overat least in Westminster.
There will be a vote of confidence once morest the Prime Minister, and his Conservative colleagues have to make the important decision to remove Boris Johnson in the midst of a war in Europe and a cost of living crisis.
If 180 Conservative MPs say he must go, there will be a debate on the new leadership and he will not be a candidate.
Some of the rebels believe that the difficult hurdle has been reaching the 54 letters from colleagues to trigger the vote.
Faced with the dilemma of reaching the next general election with Boris Johnson as leader -with a new investigation into the partygate by a cross-party committee of MPs regarding to get underway – or take the option of getting rid of him now, they believe that enough of their Conservative colleagues will drop him in a secret ballot.
His supporters are confident that he will overcome the challenge, which, according to party rules, frees him from another for a year. Many ministers – although not all – will remain loyal.
But if he wins narrowly – 52/48, as one rebel put it – some of his critics believe he will come under pressure from higher-ups to end his agony and leave.
But that doesn’t really sound like Boris Johnson.
So some of the speculation in Westminster, from both Labor and Conservative MPs, concerns the possibility of the Prime Minister seeking a new term and calling a snap election.
Trailing in the polls, that may sound unlikely. But how many improbable things have happened in politics in the last decade.
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