As California gears up for the 2026 gubernatorial election, Democratic leaders are increasingly concerned that a crowded field of candidates could inadvertently pave the way for a surprise Republican victory. With nine prominent Democrats in the race to replace termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom, party officials are urging those lagging in the polls to consider withdrawing in order to consolidate support and maintain Democratic dominance in statewide elections.
California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks expressed the urgency of the situation during the annual convention, stating, “California Democrats are prepared to do what’s required… To ensure we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what’s required in November.” The stakes are high, as under California’s “jungle primary” format, the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.
Currently, the Democratic field includes notable figures such as state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon. Meanwhile, only two major Republican candidates are in the running, which raises the potential for a division of the Democratic vote that could allow two Republicans to secure the top spots in the primary.
According to recent polling averages, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are tied for first place among voters, each garnering approximately 15.5% support, while the leading Democrat, Rep. Eric Swalwell, has 12.5% support. This scenario echoes the 2012 congressional race in San Bernardino County, where multiple Democrats split the vote, ultimately allowing a Republican to win.
Party Unity and Concerns of Splintering Votes
Despite the fears circulating within the party, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains optimistic, asserting that the Democratic Party is unified. “That’s not going to happen,” she said regarding the prospect of two Republicans advancing to the gubernatorial election. “Our diversity is our strength, our unity is our power.”
The increasing concern about vote-splitting has prompted discussions among party leaders about the necessity of narrowing the candidate field. Jodi Hicks, leader of Planned Parenthood’s California operations, emphasized that while the organization is focused on congressional races, the emergence of two Republican candidates in the gubernatorial race could have dire consequences. “A top-two Republican [race] would certainly have dire consequences for the midterm battle and to the governor’s office,” Hicks stated.
Pressure for Candidates to Exit
The pressure for candidates to consider dropping out is palpable. Some prominent voices within the party are advocating for a reduction in the number of candidates to strengthen the party’s chances. For example, RL Miller, chair of the state Democratic Party’s environmental caucus, has suggested that Betty Yee should reconsider her candidacy based on her current polling position.
Yee, who has served the party for years, responded to the pressure by asserting that any calls for her to exit the race are undemocratic. “I’m not dropping out, and I don’t think any candidate should go out,” she stated. Other candidates, like Calderon, too face similar pressures but defend their presence in the race as a means to reach undecided voters.
Looking Ahead
As the election approaches, the dynamics of the race are expected to shift significantly. The endorsement processes and candidate discussions are set to begin soon, which may lead to a natural thinning of the field. Lorena Gonzalez, leader of the California Federation of Labor Unions, indicated that honest discussions among candidates will be necessary to assess their individual paths, and viability.
The Democratic Party’s success in the upcoming election will likely depend on its ability to coalesce around a strong candidate capable of mobilizing Democratic voters in a state that has not seen a Republican elected to statewide office since 2006. With the primary mere months away, the urgency to address the current candidate landscape is becoming increasingly clear.
As California Democrats navigate this complex political landscape, the next few weeks will be critical. The outcome of candidate discussions and potential withdrawals will play a significant role in shaping the party’s strategy heading into the June primary and beyond. Political observers and voters alike will be watching closely to spot how this situation develops.
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