Vladimir Putin is due to deliver a speech on Tuesday, on the occasion of the commemoration day of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany.

May 9, the day of commemoration in Russia of the victory over Nazi Germany, is a traditional moment of show of force for Vladimir Putin and his army. But this year, processions are canceled in Russia, which seems to have reduced its sails, while Volodymyr Zelensky promised the country “the same” defeat as that of the Nazis.

Uniform, parades, arsenal… Russia should proceed, as usual, to a demonstration of force, and especially in Moscow, where the Master of the Kremlin will intervene this Tuesday from Red Square for his traditional speech.

Russian army “impoverished”

Even if part of the military equipment and soldiers are mobilized in Ukraine, tanks and armored vehicles will parade in Red Square, according to Michel Goya, BFMTV Defense consultant. “On the other hand, there will be no aerial parade,” he said.

The Russian army remains however “impoverished in its skills and its equipment”, according to Michel Goya. In Ukraine, the second offensive in the Donbass was a “complete failure”, a sign of a rather disorganized army.

The boss of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigojine, threatened on Friday to withdraw to Bakhmout, believing that his troops, on the front line in this strategic Ukrainian city, did not receive enough ammunition.

For Ulysse Gosset, international political columnist BFMTV, the Master of the Kremlin will have to “convince the whole world and also his population that he remains in charge”, which is not easy.

Jean-François Colosimo, a historian specializing in the world of Orthodoxy, believes that Vladimir Putin will perhaps “reassure himself by worrying the Russians”, since he is “at the end of his rope from the point of view of the representation of this ‘great patriotic war'”.

“Return the meaning of this party”

He might compare the fight once morest Nazi Germany in the Second World War and the need to fight once morest what he considers to be the Nazis of today, namely the Ukrainians, a parallel he has already made. last year, underlines Thierry Arnaud, international political columnist BFMTV.

“The day of May 9, it was a day of commemoration (…) and Vladimir Putin began to return the meaning of this holiday”, explains on the set of BFMTV Nadezhda Kutepova, lawyer and Russian political refugee.

According to her, the May 9 commemorations have become, over time, an opportunity for the Kremlin to say: “We can repeat our victory over Nazism”, explains Nadezhda Kutepova once more. “And eventually the Nazis were appointed by Putin’s team, and it was the Ukrainians” who became the Nazis, she explains.

“Now they have nothing to show the Russians during the war,” she said. As for the canceled commemorations, in several dozen Russian cities, the lawyer believes that the authorities “are afraid that people will come with portraits of the soldiers who were killed” during the war with Ukraine.

Ukraine renounces commemorations

These cancellations, for security reasons, are “an admission of weakness” for Thierry Arnaud. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke of a “decision by the organizers not to organize a procession across the country on May 9”.

“But it is completely understandable when dealing with a state that is the sponsor of terrorism, it is better to take precautions”, justified Dmitry Peskov.

Drone strikes, sabotage and alleged attacks have multiplied in recent weeks in Russia, sometimes far from Ukraine, without their perpetrators being clearly identified.

The Kremlin designates kyiv as responsible, which denies, as a major offensive by Ukrainian troops and the major celebrations in Russia on May 9, commemorating the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945, are looming.

Ukraine has announced that it will renounce all commemoration of the victory over Nazi Germany on Tuesday, in accordance with Soviet and Russian tradition, and will now celebrate this day on May 8 with “the free world”.

The commemorations of May 8, “this is the history of our people, of our allies, of the free world. Today we return it to our people”, declared Volodymyr Zelensky, before indicating that he had signed a decree on the establishment of a “Europe Day”.