Chinese President Xi Jinping has been implementing for more than a decade a strategy for the development of air traffic on Chinese territory, but also internationally. The goal is twofold. It is a question of modernizing mobility in the country where, in addition to the historic megalopolises, new cities are developing, smaller in size but occupying an increasingly important place in the current Chinese economy.

Also, China wants to export itself, and see its economic, cultural and commercial influence grow internationally.

The country’s ability to independently develop the most complete civil aeronautics sector possible is the stepping stone to this ambition. In less than fifteen years, China has achieved much of this goal.

The backbone of this major evolution is the development by Comac of the C919. This jumbo jet, with performance comparable to that of the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737, obtained certification from Chinese civil aviation in September 2022. It gave this newcomer to the world of civil air transport official authorization to board its first passengers.

If to date the two world giants that are Airbus and Boeing do not have much to fear from the competition of the C919, things are likely to be different in the medium term. Indeed, for the moment, Comac has committed to producing some 150 planes per year until 2030, while the Chinese need for new planes by 2040 is estimated at around 9,000 planes! The country will therefore not be able to meet its own immediate needs on its own.

The current challenge for China is to produce competitive aircraft engines itself. The C919, equipped with a Franco-American engine, illustrates the absence of solutions made in China for the moment. As for the development of the C919, which had taken a lot of delay, the development of these engines is long overdue. But there is no doubt that this ambition will eventually materialize, in the short or medium term.

The international context might be a brake on the exponential development of air traffic and Chinese capabilities in this area. Indeed, the decarbonization of human activities forces the aviation sector to review its copy: the innovations expected in Europe concern the development of aircraft with a more neutral operation for the environment. Thus, engine manufacturers are working on new generation engines to reduce emissions related to air transport.

If indeed it is possible to reduce emissions from this sector without limiting the volume of traffic, which has continued to increase since the parenthesis linked to the health crisis and successive confinements.

Thus, the current lead of European and American engine manufacturers in terms of motorization might see Chinese engines almost obsolete before they even enter service. That said, it will be necessary to see to what extent, between now and 2030 in Europe, civil aviation players are actually implementing modes of air transport that concretely make it possible to reduce the sector’s impact on GHG emissions.

It is not certain that the ecological issue constitutes an identical obstacle to the development of the civil aviation sector, whether in China or in Europe.

By Pierre Thouverez