2024-03-06 20:56:57

vienna —

Following the “shuttle diplomacy” in 2023, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, is on a tour of Europe these days, visiting countries such as Russia, the EU headquarters, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France. Observers say Beijing’s annual shuttle diplomacy has had limited success in mediating the Russia-Ukraine war.

The so-called shuttle diplomacy refers to a third party acting as an intermediary between parties to an international conflict to mediate conflicts. The term was originally used to refer to U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger’s frequent visits to Israel and Arab countries following the 1973 Yom Kippur War ceasefire in an effort to mediate Israeli-Arab reconciliation.

Before Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western intelligence agencies have learned and predicted that Russia is regarding to launch a war, and France hopes to persuade Moscow to adopt non-war actions by claiming that the cost of starting a war will be too high. French President Macron went to Moscow to meet with Russian President Putin in an attempt to avoid war through shuttle diplomacy, but failed.

Beijing’s shuttle diplomacy qualifications questioned

Different from choosing Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, as the first place to visit in 2023, Li Hui’s first stop on this trip is Moscow, the capital of Russia. According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the evening of March 2, 2024, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, arrived in Moscow and held talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin.

In the press release of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Li Hui called the second anniversary of “Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine” the second anniversary of “the comprehensive escalation of the Ukrainian crisis”, and Galuzin expressed his appreciation for China’s “constructive role.” Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has been viewed by Western countries as taking a stance that favors Moscow too much.

Yu Maochun, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, told VOA that Beijing “did not play any substantial benign role” in the mediation. He said, “Because China has a paranoid idea once morest the West, it does not have the credibility and ability to serve as a mediator.”

Yu Maochun believes that China is not suitable to play the role of mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, Beijing “completely and openly sides with the aggressor, Russia, and reneges on all strategic partnership agreements and security treaties that it has sworn to sign with Ukraine.” Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun made a clear public statement to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu earlier China fully supports Russia’s position in the Russo-Ukrainian war.” Second, “China fully supports Russia’s war economy and war supply chain, providing trucks, railway wagons, chips, drones, etc. for the war, and has the same hands as Russia It is stained with the blood of the Ukrainian Self-Defense Forces, and its responsibility cannot be shied away from.”

Ukraine cannot accept Beijing’s plan

According to Oleksiy Melnyk, director of the foreign relations and international security program at the Ukrainian think tank Razumkov Centre, whether China is suitable to serve as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war depends on its mediation capabilities. and policy orientation. He told Voice of America that in terms of mediation capabilities, “China can obviously play an important role in the peace-building process, given its geopolitical status, the level of bilateral relations between China and Russia and the relationship between the leaders of the two countries, and its economic leverage. effect.”

But in terms of policy orientation, he said: “China’s peace initiative lacks an understanding of what Ukraine can and cannot accept.” He added that this is not to say that Ukraine must drive Russian troops out of its territory – Although this is indeed Ukraine’s official position, it says that the “peace at all costs” advocated by Beijing is unacceptable to Ukraine, because the peace that Ukraine’s compromise with Russia can only bring is temporary and not long-term. of.

He also suggested that Beijing listen to the voices of the Ukrainian people and not just try to persuade the Ukrainian government in shuttle diplomacy. “Ukraine is a democratic country. Although its democratic system is still in the process of development, it was established a long time ago. Therefore, it was established a long time ago. , (Beijing’s) attempt to force the Ukrainian government to accept a compromise that is unacceptable to the Ukrainian people is doomed to fail.”

EU and China differ on stance on Russia-Ukraine war

On March 4, Li Hui arrived in Brussels and held talks with Kovanström, Director-General of the EU External Affairs Department for Asia and the Pacific, and Seibert, Director-General of Russia, Eastern Partners and Central Asia Relations. On March 5, Li Hui held talks with Modu, chief foreign affairs adviser to the President of the European Council. In the press release of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the substantive content of the talks, only Li Hui expressed opposition to the EU’s inclusion of Chinese companies in the latest sanctions list once morest Russia and urged the EU to unconditionally cancel the listing of Chinese companies. There was no mention of the EU’s position. .

A press release from the European Union Foreign Affairs Department elaborated on the EU’s position: “The EU emphasizes that Russia bears full responsibility for the unprovoked and unreasonable acts of aggression it has launched, and emphasizes that respect for the principles of the United Nations Charter and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be part of any The cornerstone of the final solution.

The EU emphasizes that the war launched by Russia poses an existential threat to European security, so China’s stance on this war will inevitably affect EU-China bilateral relations. ” The press release also reiterated that the EU is “committed to supporting Ukraine’s victory at all costs.” “

Compared with the courtesy and appreciation he received in Moscow, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, seems to have been unable to reach any meaningful consensus with the EU in Brussels.

Abigaël Vasselier, director of European affairs and policy at the Mercator China Institute, a German think tank, told VOA that “mediators need to remain neutral, and China does not. China has neither condemned Russia’s invasion” Ukraine has also not played a constructive role in resolving the conflict.” Therefore, Europe has “no illusions” regarding Beijing playing a constructive role.

She believes that the real purpose of Li Hui’s visit is to “test whether Ukraine and Europe are willing to make some compromises in order to find a conflict resolution that takes into account ‘Russia’s legitimate security concerns’.”

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