Economy

2024-01-03 20:38:09

The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, rose 3.13% to $78.25.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in February, jumped 3.29% to $72.70.

Prices are rebounding, “the closure of Libya’s largest oil field following protests has raised concerns regarding supplies,” says Axel Rudolph, analyst at IG.

The Sharara oil field in western Libya has a production capacity of around 300,000 barrels per day.

But “even if the oil supply has not been affected”, “the nervousness is obvious”, underlines Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.

Yemeni Houthi rebels claimed on Wednesday to have carried out an “operation” once morest a ship from the French carrier CMA CGM in the Red Sea, in solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

In recent weeks, in the wake of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi rebels have increased attacks in the Red Sea and in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through which 12% of world trade passes.

The Houthis, supported by Iran, have warned that they will target, in solidarity with Gaza, ships sailing in the Red Sea and with links to Israel.

“Some shipping companies are now avoiding the relevant strait and instead taking a much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope,” explains Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, “which not only extends delivery times by 10 to 12 days, but also increases transport and insurance costs.

The French maritime carrier CMA CGM announced the almost doubling of its freight rates from January 15 for trade between Asia and the Mediterranean, due to Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.

German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd also said it would now avoid the Red Sea, recalled Jose Torres, senior economist for Interactive Brokers.

Another potential sign of escalation of the conflict: a double explosion took place on Wednesday near the Saheb al-Zaman mosque, where the tomb of General Soleimani is located, in Kerman, in the south of Iran.

The attack was described as an attack by Iranian officials and state media, but there was no immediate claim of responsibility.

“If tensions continue to escalate, oil prices might be strengthened in the short term,” says Lukman Otunuga of FXTM.

At the same time, members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and their OPEC+ allies reaffirmed their “full commitment” to “unity, cohesion and market stability” in a press release published on the alliance’s website on Wednesday.

This is the group’s first official communication since Angola left OPEC last month, unhappy with its production quota decided at the alliance’s last ministerial meeting.

emb-vmt/eb

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#Oil #rise #closure #oil #field #Libya #January #p.m

2024-01-03 15:02:34

December brings unpredictable conditions in many regions, from heavy snowfall and bitter cold to sudden thaws and rain that turn roads into treacherous terrain. Navigating in such conditions requires careful driving, especially since inept actions can lead to skidding, leaving the roadway and emergency situations. Experienced emergency driving instructor Dmitry Fedorov shared valuable recommendations with the portal, focusing on key measures for driving on slippery roads.

ABS (anti-lock braking system) is an essential feature of modern cars, and drivers need to use it skillfully. Dmitry Fedorov emphasizes the need to understand that ABS cannot be turned off forcibly, unlike other systems such as ESP. He advises drivers to sense when ABS engages and carefully modulate brake pedal force to ensure effective braking without sudden application. This requires a quick and precise transition from the accelerator pedal to the brake pedal in emergency situations. Drivers should avoid abruptly releasing the brake pedal as ABS automatically disengages, which can result in longer stopping distances (photo: ru.freepik.com).

To better understand the roads, especially for new and inexperienced drivers, Fedorov recommends practicing braking on a straight, empty stretch. This allows the driver to gradually adjust the force applied to the brake pedal and feel when the ABS is activated. The goal is to become familiar with the car’s behavior on slippery surfaces and understand the amount of space needed to slow down at different speeds. Even in areas with snowy roads or slippery surfaces, drivers should exercise caution. When braking on such surfaces, Fedorov suggests using the caterpillar as a pseudo-stop, turning the steering wheel so that the wheel rests once morest the “side”.

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#Russians #told #properly #ABS #brake #slippery #roads

2024-01-03 22:53:59

As conflicts in the Middle East intensified, international oil prices closed higher on Wednesday (3rd). According to news reports, an explosion occurred during a ceremony commemorating the fourth anniversary of the death of an Iranian military officer, causing many casualties.

In addition, news reports pointed out that Libya’s largest oil field was closed due to protests, which also gave support to oil prices.

However, analysts believe that traders have largely ignored threats such as shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and an expanding war in the Middle East in the past few weeks because these factors have not yet impacted global oil supplies and production.

energy commodity prices

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for February delivery rose $2.32, or 3.3%, to settle at $72.70 a barrel.
• Delivered in MarchBrent crude oil (Brent) futures rose $2.36, or 3.1%, to $78.25 a barrel.
• Gasoline futures for February delivery rose 3% to settle at $2.16 a gallon.
• Delivered in FebruaryThermal Fuel FuturesPrices rose 3.1% to $2.60 per gallon.
• Natural gas futures prices for February delivery rose 3.9% to settle at $2.67 per million Btu.

market drivers

Iranian state media reported that an explosion occurred near a cemetery in Iran, where a ceremony to commemorate the death anniversary of Major General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 was being held. The officer was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in January 2020.

Brent and WTI both closed at their lowest levels since Dec. 13 on Tuesday, failing to hold on to big early gains following an Iranian warship entered the Red Sea.

Oil prices rose early on Tuesday following Iran decided to send a warship to the Red Sea following the U.S. military sank three Iranian-backed ships over the weekend that attacked cargo ships owned by Maersk Line.

Danish shipping giant Maersk announced late Tuesday that it would suspend sailings in the Red Sea.

Oil prices rose following the war between Israel and Hamas broke out last October, but the war premium quickly dissipated. Analysts say that while Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked ships sailing the Red Sea with drones and missiles, oil traders have largely ignored potential threats to shipping.

Analysts warn that tensions between the two sides may be on the verge of breaking out and the conflict expand to involve Iran.

Meanwhile, according to news reports, Libya’s Sharara oil field, which produces 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been closed by protesters.

Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, said that overall, the oil market appears to be “probably in roughly balance, but there are numerous uncertainties on the supply side, from the small impact of sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela to President Joe Biden in the United States There may be attempts to tighten sanctions.”

He pointed out that the market is worried that rising U.S. interest rates will impact the construction industry such as home construction and sales and reduce oil demand. What deepens the market concern is that “the large amount of travel during the holidays did not have a greater impact on oil demand.”

At the same time, Angola’s withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised concerns regarding the unity of the organization. Lynch pointed out that “OPEC may find it increasingly difficult to maintain oil prices.” “Saudi Arabia bears most of the responsibility, but this approach may make it more difficult for OPEC to maintain oil prices.” It’s time to come and go.”

He pointed to the recent hot oil news being the U.S. shale oil boom that exceeded expectations. “It looks like U.S. shale oil is growing at regarding double what was expected at the beginning of the year, and as the economy frees up capital, more rigs may come online.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its oil supply report for last week on Thursday. Due to the New Year holiday on Monday, the supply report will be delayed by one day from the usual release time.

According to the S&P Global Commodity Insights survey, analysts on average expected U.S. crude oil inventories to fall by 4 million barrels last week (ending December 29), gasoline supply to increase by 2.32 million barrels, and distillate supply to increase by 2.6 million barrels.

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#Energy #followinghours #Explosion #memorial #ceremony #deceased #Iranian #military #officer #conflict #Middle #East #escalated #Crude #oil #rose #Anue #Juheng

2024-01-03 22:57:00

The Tokyo stock market is expected to fall on the 4th, the first trading day of the year. In the U.S. market during Japan’s holiday period, expectations for an early interest rate cut have receded, and as interest rates rise, prices have fallen, mainly in technology stocks such as those related to semiconductors.In Japan, there is also likely to be a sell-off in electronics, precision equipment, and materials stocks. Due to the Ishikawa Prefecture Noto Peninsula earthquake that occurred on the 1st, there is a tendency for people to hold off on buying as they want to assess the impact on production.

• The liquidation price of Nikkei 225 futures (denominated in yen) on the Chicago Futures Market (CME) was 33,065 yen, 355 yen lower than the regular closing price (33,420 yen) of the Osaka Exchange’s Dainakai.
• US stocks fell on the 3rd – US 10-year bond yield was 3.92% (3.88% on December 29, 2023)

Takashi Ito Senior Strategist at Nomura Securities

• US technology stocks and semiconductor indexes have fallen significantly during the Japanese holiday period, and today’s Japanese stocks, mainly semiconductor-related, are likely to start trading in line with this.
  • While U.S. stocks as a whole are wary of high prices, technology stocks and semiconductor-related stocks are concerned regarding the impact of the dollar’s strong trend on guidance for the January-March quarter.
  • In the U.S., expectations for interest rate cuts have been strongly factored in, and U.S. stocks are likely to see a speedy adjustment due to a reactionary reaction or concerns regarding high prices.
• Currently, the Noto Peninsula earthquake is still at the stage where saving lives is a priority, and economic activity has not yet begun, so it is unclear how it will affect supply chains and consumption activities.
  • The negative impact on the stock market and inbound tourism is not zero, but the Japanese economy as a whole is not in a state of turmoil, so there is a possibility that it will not have a major impact.

background

• FOMC meeting summary maintains high interest rates “for the time being” – looking to cut interest rates in 2024
• Apple stock falls on the 2nd, Barclays becomes bearish – warns of softening iPhone demand
• [Noto Peninsula Earthquake]73 people died in Ishikawa Prefecture, some regional banks temporarily closed branches
• The dollar/yen exchange rate in Kesa is in the low 143 yen range to the dollar, and the closing price of Japanese stocks at Dainokai is 141 yen.32.
• [Remarks from VIPs]The possibility of a soft landing is increasing, but it is not inevitable – President Barkin
• Click here for the previous day’s overseas market conditions

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#Japanese #stocks #fall #fed #falling #U.S #technology #stocks #Selling #electronics #precision #equipment #Bloomberg