Economy

The Polish złoty weakened against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, approaching the 3.60 złoty mark, a move driven by disappointing domestic economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions, according to reports from multiple financial news outlets.

The dollar gained over 0.53% against the złoty, reaching a session high of 3.5971 złoty, compared to an opening rate of 3.5768 złoty and a previous close of 3.5773 złoty. This represents a reversal of the trend seen in January, when the złoty had been strengthening against both the dollar and the euro.

A key factor contributing to the złoty’s decline was the release of January’s industrial production figures by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The data revealed a 1.5% year-on-year decrease in production, significantly underperforming market expectations of a 2% increase. This “cold shower” for the market, as described in reporting by Money.pl, immediately impacted the złoty’s valuation.

Further weighing on the Polish currency were labor market figures indicating lower-than-expected wage growth. These weaker macroeconomic indicators have fueled speculation about potential future moves by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), with the market now pricing in a scenario where deteriorating economic conditions could prompt the council to accelerate monetary easing.

Konrad Ryczko, an analyst at Dom Maklerski BOŚ, noted the strengthening dollar on broader markets, pushing the EUR/USD rate towards 1.1760, and its impact on Central and Eastern European currencies. He specifically cited the GUS data as a negative factor for the złoty, stating that the figures “fit the scenario of a March interest rate cut by the RPP.”

Geopolitical risks are also playing a role in the currency’s performance. Rising aversion to risk internationally, particularly concerning escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, is driving capital towards safe-haven assets like the U.S. Dollar. Analysts at Saxo Bank have highlighted the potential for continued dollar strength if the risk of conflict or further economic sanctions increases.

The recent volatility in Polish industrial output adds complexity to the situation. While December 2025 saw a substantial 7.3% increase in production, raising hopes for a sustained recovery, the January decline demonstrates the fragility of this improvement and the sector’s sensitivity to both domestic and global conditions.

As of February 19, 2026, the dollar continues to test the 3.60 złoty barrier, with the złoty facing sustained downward pressure.

Ukraine’s parliament voted to enshrine its aspiration to join NATO in its constitution in 2018, a move that followed Russia’s initial military incursions into Ukrainian territory in 2014. This commitment remains despite ongoing conflict and a complex history of relations with the alliance.

Since its independence in 1991, Ukraine has pursued a relationship with NATO, joining the Partnership for Peace program in 1994 and establishing the NATO-Ukraine Commission in 1997 to foster cooperation. Whereas not a member, Ukraine aimed for eventual accession throughout the 1990s and 2000s, maintaining a neutral status even as it engaged with the alliance.

The Bucharest summit in 2008 saw NATO decline to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan, but affirmed that Ukraine would eventually join. This position shifted during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, who in 2010 secured a parliamentary vote to reaffirm Ukraine’s neutrality, though cooperation with NATO continued. Following the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution and Russia’s subsequent annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian parliament reversed course in December 2014, again voting to seek NATO membership.

Russia has consistently opposed Ukrainian membership in NATO, and this opposition has intensified during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. NATO has increased its support for Ukraine, but maintains that Ukraine is a partner country, not a member, and is therefore not covered by the alliance’s collective defense commitments.

As of February 2026, Ukraine continues to seek membership, while Russia continues to object. NATO has not announced a timeline for potential membership, and the situation remains a key point of contention in regional security.