The next few weeks will be extremely exciting militarily in the Ukraine war. The Ukrainian army is likely to advance in a pincer movement. An analysis.

Munich/Donbass – Russian officials and military are feeling “ubiquitous fear” over Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive in the war once morest Russia. At least that’s what the news magazine writes Newsweek.

Ukraine war: According to Kiev, a counter-offensive is imminent

According to US analysts, the counterattack is imminent. Several factors would speak in favor of this. In addition to the warmer weather in early May belong noisy Newsweek also the prospect of spoiling Russia’s momentous May 9 celebrations.

Significant: This Friday (April 28), Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced the start of the counter-offensive as imminent. But how and where? According to indications, the military counterattack in the Ukraine war might take place in a kind of pincer movement once morest President Vladimir Putin’s invading army.

“The preparations are coming to an end,” Reznikov explained at a press conference: “The equipment was promised, prepared and partly delivered. In the broadest sense, we are ready.” With heavy Western weapons: According to the Western Defense Alliance, NATO countries and their partners have delivered more than 230 main battle tanks to Kiev in the past few months. In addition, there are 1550 armored vehicles such as armored personnel carriers.

Ukraine Counter-Offensive: Favored by warmer weather in May

So can we start? The US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) referred to the warmer and drier weather in May. That’s when the rainy season usually ends in Ukraine. The vast plains of the Donbass are so much more navigable for western heavy tanks. In short: You won’t get stuck in the mud and you’ll make much faster progress.

Newsweek noted that in the Russian regions of Belgorod and Kursk on the border with Ukraine, the “March of the Immortal Regiment” to commemorate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany and other “Victory Day” events on May 9 were canceled for security reasons. “The next 30 to 60 days of the campaign will be critical,” said retired US Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, a former commander at US Central Command. Newsweek: “Ukraine largely repelled the Russian offensive this spring. The weather is getting better and Ukraine is integrating new skills. You have a chance, but the risks remain high.”

Better weather promotes military mobility, “and so the character of (military) operations will change,” said Nick Reynolds of the London think tank Royal United Services Institute. This is particularly important in Donbass, the analyst explained Newsweek“where the poor quality of the road network and traffic exacerbate the challenges of bad weather and mud for the armed forces”.

Ukraine’s counter-offensive: from Kharkiv to Luhansk in the Donbass?

“In the area of ​​air defense in particular,” Reynolds warned, “serious equipment deficiencies that have long been identified but not addressed” remain. This is consistent with reports from New York Times and the British Guardian, according to which recently leaked US documents show that Ukrainian air defenses are not doing well. According to a document dated February 23, marked “secret”, the ammunition of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems might be exhausted by May 2.

The equipment was promised, prepared and partly delivered. In the broadest sense, we are ready.

What increases the pressure of an imminent offensive? In view of the latest indications, the attack by the Ukrainian armed forces will probably not only take place in the south, but in the north-east from Kharkiv with a thrust in the direction of Luhansk in the Donbass – along the Russian border. The Ukrainian military “secretly” gathered forces in the Kharkiv region, wrote Newsweek recently.

As well as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) citing maps from the Washington think tank American Enterprise Institute, US analysts have discovered defensive lines on Russian territory near the borders of the Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv. Both cities are also in the northeast.

Ukraine offensive: Russian army trenches near Zaporizhia and Luhansk

The ZDF reported on the Russian army’s intensive fortification work in the Zaporizhia and Luhansk regions. According to satellite images, hundreds of kilometers of trenches have been dug, combined with concrete “dragon teeth” to stop tanks. In turn, Zaporizhia is located in the south-east of the country on the Dnepr. So does the counter-offensive take place in a kind of pincer movement?

And that from Kharkiv to Luhansk, also in order to wipe out Russian Wagner mercenaries at Bakhmut? This might cut off supplies for pro-Russian separatists in Donbass. On the other hand, from Cherson via Melitopol to Zaporizhia, to capture the occupied nuclear power plant (NPP)? According to the British Ministry of Defence, the Russian occupiers have set up positions on the roofs of the nuclear power plant, which cannot be independently verified.

Ukraine counter-offensive: pincer movement once morest Russian army?

Another indication of a pincer movement: A 70-kilometer-long trench in the Zaporizhia region is intended to secure the occupied Melitopol, writes Das Editorial Network Germany (RND) with reference to the “Center for Journalistic Investigations”, which evaluated satellite images. Accordingly, a fortified line of the Russian army ran west of Melitopol from the village of Semenovka to the village of Marinovka, east of the city on the Azov Sea. Is it just a matter of days now? (pm)