2023-04-18 05:02:48

Located in the heart of the Sahel, Niger has an undiversified economy, dependent on agriculture for 40% of its GDP. The level of extreme poverty, rising to 41.8% in 2021, affects more than 10 million people.

Niger is facing an influx of refugees fleeing conflicts in Nigeria and Mali. As of August 31, 2022, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) registered 294,467 refugees and nearly 350,000 displaced persons on its territory.

Political context

Candidate of the ruling party, Mohamed Bazoum was elected to the presidency in the elections of December 2020 and February 2021. He is the first to succeed his predecessor in a democratic way.

Niger is facing a security crisis in border areas with Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali, where armed groups perpetuate attacks once morest security forces and civilians. A state of emergency has been declared in the regions of Diffa, Tahoua and Tillabéri.

Economic situation

After weak GDP growth in 2021 (1.4%), economic growth is estimated at 11.5% in 2022. Agricultural production increased by 27% thanks to a better than average rainy season and the expansion of irrigated production, which more than compensated for the decline in mining and manufacturing. At the same time, the services sector benefited from the expansionary fiscal policy and the construction of the pipeline, which stimulated market services and transport.

Average annual inflation reached 4.2% in 2022, its highest level for 10 years, compared to 3.8% in 2021, due to continued pressures on the domestic food market and global commodity prices. Nevertheless, Niger had the lowest inflation rate in the WAEMU region.

Perspectives :

In 2023, real GDP growth is expected to be in line with potential, at 6.9%, and increase further in 2024 to 12.5%. This is due to the start of large-scale oil production and exports, continued donor support and an economic reform program designed to increase overall productivity and strengthen economic governance, which will bring GDP per capita to a 15% higher than in 2021.

Inflation is expected to fall to 3.2% in 2023, then to 2.8% in 2024 as food inflation moderates, before rising slightly in 2025 due to additional demand fueled by oil revenues. Due to the increase in food imports, the current account deficit will reach 17% before reducing to 11.5% with the arrival of oil exports.

This outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and multiple risks, including the intensification of climate change-related shocks, the deterioration of the security situation which might drain additional resources, a slowdown in world oil prices and/or delays in increasing oil production, and delays in key structural economic reforms and complementary investments.

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