As of early February 2022, most participating high-level politicians, military diplomats and analysts did not believe a Russian attack on Ukraine was imminent. In 2023, many expected a decisive success in Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive. This year, the primary “deals and partnerships” were the signing of the French-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian security pacts, which set out Europe’s commitments to Ukraine on a bilateral basis (as well as Kiev’s counterparts with the Americans and the British).

The sudden death of Russian activist and opposition figure Alexei Navalny, however, overshadowed those ceremonies. Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, held Putin personally responsible in her speech in Munich. US President Joe Biden also blamed the crime on Putin. The Kremlin dismissed Biden’s accusation as “unacceptable” interference in Russia’s internal affairs. The wave of international outrage is far stronger than the denials in Moscow, where the propaganda machine has been instructed to say as little as possible on the matter.

The big question is whether the West’s reactions will have a serious political impact on Russia. The first possible outcome might be the delayed approval by the US House of Representatives of the $95.6 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the Pacific Islands, which was approved by the Senate last week .

Party bickering still hampers her, but moral pressure to break the impasse has grown since Biden linked Navalny’s killing to Congress’s failure to pass the aid package. The increased support from the E.U. and key European states will likely allow Ukrainian forces to maintain their defensive lines, even following they withdraw from Avdiivka. Ukraine needs the renewed and expanded supply of US military hardware and ammunition to prepare for a new counteroffensive and ensure the recapture of the initiative on the battlefield.

Navalny’s death might spark progress in seizing Russian financial assets held in Western banks and channeling those funds into rebuilding Ukraine. Without the proper political will, the legal arguments for this unprecedented step might continue indefinitely. A renewed determination to hold the Putin regime accountable for its crimes, including Navalny’s murder, may help mobilize that will. On the cards there is also the strengthening of economic sanctions, in particular the restriction of hydrocarbon exports.

They may also be affected by recent developments in how Western leaders view the possibility of peace talks with Putin. This perspective was discussed in Putin’s recent interview with the eccentric Tucker Carlson. The Russian president did not give some thoughts on practical proposals. He felt it necessary to make clear to the domestic public that his determination to defeat all modern manifestations of “Nazism” remained unwavering, and that an international network similar to the old Soviet Comintern model might be cultivated to this end. Putin’s recycled history lecture regarding Ukraine as a natural part of Greater Russia was more than just a symptom of his geopolitical obsession and complicity.

It was also an attempt to convey to US lawmakers his readiness to end the war if they voted to end support for Ukraine. Europeans see Putin’s appeal as a tactic to buy time. A cessation of hostilities would allow Moscow to rebuild its battered military machine and re-exert military pressure on its neighbors. Even for audiences naive enough (including largely in our own country) to believe in the vague promise of peace or cynical enough that a deal with Moscow seems attractive, the shock of Navalny’s assassination signals the end of hope. and their calculations.

Putin’s credibility is dubious at best. Now, he cannot be a party to any peace talks. Navalny’s death in a remote Arctic prison will affect more than Putin. Many Kremlin “cronies”—judges, prison guards, secret service agents, and shameless propagandists—had a hand in this crime and had good reason to fear the consequences.

Corrupt courtiers and treacherous “minions” who might have thought of overthrowing their boss and blaming him for the disastrous war must now recognize that their offers to negotiate with the West would be met with serious prejudice and apparently rejection. The aging leaders in the various branches of Russia’s vast state bureaucracy, their younger deputies and the top brass commanding Russia’s depleted military are virtually at a standstill.

Hard battles are needed to defeat Putin

Navalny’s belief that Putin’s state will one day disappear may be too optimistic. Hard battles and painful sacrifices are required to overthrow this cruel Leviathan. While Navalny did his second life’s work, it is up to Ukraine to realize the first. Even in the face of the small retreat, Ukrainian soldiers continue to push the Russian army closer to defeat, and every trace of Western support brings Kiev’s victory closer. Ukraine’s final victory on the battlefield is Russia’s best hope for recovery, although the opposition leader who would have worked to convince the disaffected people that this dream can come true might not be released from years in prison or now from his last abode to rally the Russian people.

The attitude of the Russian elites is critical

Russian elites may feel compelled to close ranks around the potentially irreplaceable authoritarian, discredited and delusional leader. Their faith alone, however, cannot combat the problems of demoralization on the front lines and at home. Repressive autocracies can be relatively stable if they have sufficient resources to distribute and embezzle. However, the combination of the constant stress of war and progressive economic decline undermined the duration of the Russian dictatorship. Navalny’s assassination may not be the spark that ignites the country’s collapse, but his point that Putin’s system of power is unsustainable because it is based on lies is true.

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