Peru’s Political Quagmire: How Failed Disqualifications Could Reshape the 2026 Election

The recent failure to disqualify former President Pedro Castillo, along with ex-Prime Minister Betssy Chávez and former Interior Minister Willy Huerta, isn’t simply a legal setback for Peru’s political establishment. It’s a stark warning: the mechanisms designed to prevent leaders accused of undermining democracy from returning to power are proving increasingly fragile. With the 2026 elections looming, this outcome signals a potential resurgence of populist forces and a deepening of the country’s chronic political instability.

The Vote That Didn’t Stick: A Breakdown of the Congressional Block

Despite facing accusations of violating the Constitution – a total of 18 articles in the case of Castillo, Chávez, and Huerta – efforts to permanently bar them from holding office fell short. The motion against Castillo garnered 44 votes in favor, falling 34 short of the required 68. Chávez fared slightly better with 54 votes, while Huerta received 44. The opposition stemmed primarily from leftist benches – Podemos Perú, Perú Libre, Together for Peru, the Socialist Caucus, and the Popular Democratic Bloc – highlighting a deep partisan divide. Crucially, at least two of these parties, Podemos Perú and Juntos por el Perú, maintain existing political ties to Castillo and his inner circle, raising questions about their motivations ahead of the next electoral cycle.

Beyond the Coup Attempt: The Lingering Influence of Castillo

The attempted self-coup of December 7, 2022, remains the central event fueling these disqualification attempts. Castillo’s decree to dissolve Congress and reorganize the judiciary was widely condemned as an assault on Peru’s democratic institutions. However, his continued relevance – even from Barbadillo prison – is undeniable. During a recent virtual appearance before Congress, Castillo doubled down on his narrative, framing his actions as a response to the “clamor of the Peruvian people.” This resonates with a segment of the population, particularly in rural areas, who feel marginalized by the political elite.

Key Takeaway: Castillo’s ability to maintain a base of support, despite his legal troubles and the condemnation of his actions, demonstrates the enduring power of populist rhetoric and the deep-seated grievances within Peruvian society.

The Legal Landscape: Disqualification vs. Imprisonment

While Castillo was sentenced to over 11 years in prison for conspiracy to rebel, constitutional lawyer Erick Urbina clarifies a critical point: the initial conviction itself is sufficient for disqualification under Article 34-A of the Peruvian Constitution. This article prevents anyone convicted in the first instance of an intentional crime from running for office. However, the failed congressional vote underscores a critical distinction: legal rulings and political will aren’t always aligned. The judiciary can impose sanctions, but Congress holds the ultimate power to permanently remove individuals from the political arena.

The Role of Political Alliances and Strategic Maneuvering

The blocking votes weren’t simply ideological. The political calculations of various parties are at play. For example, lawyer Raúl Noblecilla, representing Betssy Chávez, is also part of the presidential team of Podemos Perú, a party aiming to compete in 2026. His disruptive behavior during the proceedings – including outbursts and insults directed at congressmen – further fueled the perception of a politically motivated defense. Similarly, the defense of Castillo by Carlos Torres Caro, a former parliamentarian, highlights the network of support still surrounding the ex-president.

Looking Ahead: The 2026 Election and the Risk of Political Fragmentation

The failure to disqualify Castillo, Chávez, and Huerta significantly alters the landscape for the 2026 elections. While Castillo’s imprisonment presents logistical challenges, his continued influence could translate into votes for candidates aligned with his ideology. The fragmentation of the left, with multiple parties vying for power, could also hinder the formation of a unified opposition. This creates an opportunity for a resurgence of populist or anti-establishment candidates, potentially exacerbating political instability.

Did you know? Peru has seen five presidents in the last seven years, a testament to the country’s ongoing political turmoil. This instability is directly linked to deep-seated social inequalities, corruption, and a lack of trust in political institutions.

Expert Insight:

“The Peruvian Congress’s decision to not disqualify these figures sends a dangerous message. It suggests that even those accused of attempting to undermine democracy can remain viable political actors. This erodes public trust and creates a climate of impunity.” – Dr. Isabella Ramirez, Political Analyst, Andean Studies Institute.

The Rise of “Anti-Establishment” Sentiment and its Global Implications

Peru’s situation isn’t isolated. We’re witnessing a global trend of rising anti-establishment sentiment, fueled by economic inequality, political polarization, and a perceived disconnect between elites and ordinary citizens. From the United States to Europe and Latin America, populist leaders are capitalizing on these frustrations. The Peruvian case serves as a cautionary tale: failing to address the underlying causes of this discontent can lead to political instability and the erosion of democratic norms. The World Bank’s latest poverty outlook highlights the growing economic disparities that fuel this sentiment globally.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Can Pedro Castillo still run for president in 2026 despite his conviction?

A: While legally disqualified due to his conviction, the failed congressional effort to formally bar him from office leaves a degree of ambiguity. His ability to influence the election through proxies or aligned candidates remains a possibility.

Q: What role did political alliances play in the congressional vote?

A: Political alliances were crucial. Left-leaning parties with ties to Castillo and his allies actively blocked the disqualification motions, demonstrating a strategic effort to keep him and his associates politically relevant.

Q: What are the potential consequences of this outcome for Peru’s political stability?

A: The outcome could lead to increased political fragmentation, a resurgence of populist forces, and a continuation of the instability that has plagued Peru in recent years.

Q: Is this situation unique to Peru, or are other countries facing similar challenges?

A: Peru’s situation reflects a broader global trend of rising anti-establishment sentiment and challenges to democratic institutions. Many countries are grappling with similar issues of political polarization and declining trust in government.

The coming years will be critical for Peru. Navigating the complex interplay of legal challenges, political maneuvering, and social unrest will require strong leadership, a commitment to democratic principles, and a genuine effort to address the underlying grievances that fuel political instability. See our guide on understanding political risk in Latin America for more insights.

What are your predictions for the future of Peruvian politics? Share your thoughts in the comments below!