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Sirens wail, cities lie in ruins, columns of refugees flee, and tanks advance relentlessly across the snow. Nearly four years after Putin’s invasion, the snapshot of the war in Ukraine remains starkly unchanged. The conflict has settled into a prolonged war of attrition, and after more than 1,400 days of fighting, the front lines are largely static. Despite offensives, counteroffensives, and announcements of decisive turning points, the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. The central question persists: which side can sustain the weight of a conflict destined to shape a generation?
The war in Ukraine has become a grueling test of endurance, marked by incremental gains and devastating losses. As winter deepens, the conflict’s trajectory hinges on the ability of both Russia and Ukraine to mobilize resources, secure external support, and adapt to the evolving realities on the ground. The question of who is “winning” is increasingly complex, shifting from territorial gains to a battle of economic and military resilience.
According to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have maintained a gradual but consistent advance, gaining an average of approximately 280 square kilometers per month. While limited, this progress doesn’t signal an imminent collapse of Ukrainian lines. The Russian army has intensified the use of new infiltration tactics and relies on numerical and industrial superiority. President Putin has initiated a massive expansion of the armed forces, aiming to reach 1.5 million active military personnel, while Russia continues to produce a significant portion of its weaponry domestically and import drones and ammunition from abroad.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, having recaptured some areas between late 2025 and early 2026 – particularly in the eastern regions and the Kupyansk sector – faces difficulties in terms of human resources and military production. The war has progressively shifted to target infrastructure, with systematic Russian attacks against energy and logistics networks aimed at weakening the Ukrainian economy and putting pressure on the civilian population, leaving millions without electricity or heating during the winter.
The Crucial Factors: Arms and Funding
The outcome of the conflict increasingly depends on two key factors: military mobilization capacity and the continuation of Western aid, according to reports from the BBC and the New York Times. Ukraine remains heavily reliant on external funding and supplies, while the Kremlin benefits from an autonomous military-industrial complex and a greater availability of personnel. This imbalance has transformed the war into a long-term war of resistance.
Defining Victory: Diverging Goals
Initially, Moscow declared its intention to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine and defend the separatist regions of Donbas. After the failure of the assault on Kyiv in 2022, the objectives shifted to controlling the eastern and southern regions. For President Zelenskyy, victory means preserving the country’s sovereignty and obtaining security guarantees from the West. Negotiation proposals, including diplomatic initiatives supported by Washington, remain distant. Moscow aims to consolidate territorial control and limit Ukraine’s military capabilities, while Kyiv rejects concessions it considers equivalent to surrender. The Kremlin believes time is on its side and continues to pursue a war of attrition, despite the rising costs.
Unprecedented Losses
The human cost of the conflict is immense and difficult to verify precisely. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, total losses – including deaths, injuries, and missing persons – could reach two million by 2026. Russian forces are estimated to have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties since the beginning of the war, while Ukrainian losses are estimated to be between 500,000 and 600,000. These are the highest losses for a major power since World War II. Civilian casualties also remain alarmingly high. The organization Action on Armed Violence reported a 26% increase in Ukrainian civilian deaths caused by bombardments in 2025, with over 2,000 deaths and more than 12,000 injuries. Missile and drone attacks regularly strike cities and infrastructure, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
As the conflict enters its fifth year, the path forward remains uncertain. The ability of Ukraine to maintain Western support, coupled with Russia’s capacity to sustain its military efforts, will be critical in determining the war’s ultimate outcome. The coming months will likely observe continued fighting along the front lines, with both sides seeking to consolidate their positions and exploit any vulnerabilities. The long-term implications of the war for regional security and the global order remain profound.
What comes next will depend on the continued flow of aid to Ukraine and the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. The situation remains fluid, and a decisive breakthrough on either side appears unlikely in the near term.
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