Is Dylan Cease’s Late-Season Surge a Glimpse of Padres Playoff Potential?

The Padres made a significant gamble last offseason, trading for pitcher Dylan Cease with the hope of bolstering their rotation. While his initial performance in San Diego showed promise, a concerning dip in form raised serious questions about the investment. Now, with just two regular season games remaining, a late September surge is offering a tantalizing, if uncertain, preview of what Cease – and the Padres – might be capable of in a potential playoff run.

The Curious Case of Cease’s 2025 Struggles

After a stellar 2024 campaign with the White Sox, where he posted a 3.47 ERA and a career-best 1.07 WHIP, Cease arrived in San Diego with high expectations. However, the 2025 season has been a different story. His current 4.59 ERA represents his highest since his rookie year, leaving both the player and manager Mike Shildt searching for answers. “It’s interesting, but I don’t know how to explain it,” Shildt admitted to reporters, highlighting the perplexing nature of the decline. The inconsistency has fueled speculation about whether the pressures of a new team, or perhaps lingering effects from a disappointing postseason showing, are impacting his performance.

September’s Spark: A Potential Turning Point?

Despite the overall struggles, a recent trend offers a glimmer of hope. Cease has been dominant in his last three starts, boasting a 2.40 ERA and a 2-0 record. This late-season resurgence coincides with a crucial stretch for the Padres, who are battling for a Wild Card spot and attempting to close the gap on the division-leading Dodgers. The timing is undeniably significant, suggesting that Cease may be peaking at the right time. He himself reports feeling strong, stating he’s “as good as you can this time of year,” a sentiment that resonates with the team’s playoff aspirations.

The Role of Pitching Adjustments and Mental Fortitude

What’s driving this turnaround? While Shildt remains unsure of the exact cause of Cease’s earlier struggles, it’s likely a combination of factors. Minor adjustments to his pitching mechanics, focusing on command and utilizing his arsenal more effectively, could be playing a role. However, the mental aspect of the game is equally crucial. Facing his former team, the White Sox, this weekend adds another layer of complexity. Successfully navigating that emotional challenge will be a key test of his resilience. The ability to block out distractions and focus on executing pitches will be paramount.

Analyzing Cease’s Key Stats: ERA, WHIP, and WAR

Looking beyond the ERA, a deeper dive into Cease’s statistics reveals further insights. His WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) has fluctuated throughout the season, indicating control issues that have plagued him at times. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement), a comprehensive metric evaluating a player’s overall contribution, is also down from his 2024 peak. However, the recent improvement in these areas suggests a positive trajectory. Fangraphs provides a detailed breakdown of Cease’s pitch data, offering a valuable resource for understanding his performance trends.

The Padres’ Playoff Path: Cease as a Potential X-Factor

The Padres’ playoff hopes hinge on several factors, including their ability to maintain their current momentum and capitalize on opportunities against weaker opponents. But a dominant Cease in the postseason could be the difference between a quick exit and a deep run. His ability to replicate his September form will be critical. If he can consistently deliver quality starts, he could become the ace the Padres envisioned when they acquired him. The Dodgers, currently holding a narrow lead in the NL West, are also showing signs of vulnerability, creating a potential opening for San Diego to seize control of the division.

The next two starts are not just about securing a playoff berth; they’re about building confidence and establishing a rhythm for Cease heading into October. The Padres’ success may very well depend on whether this late-season surge is a fleeting moment or a sign of things to come. What are your predictions for Dylan Cease and the Padres in the playoffs? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Bryan Woo’s Fastball: The Unlikely Superpower Redefining Pitching Dominance

It took Bryan Woo some time to fully unlock his superpower. Today, that outlier skill – a four-seam fastball that consistently leaves hitters flummoxed – is on full display every time the right-hander takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners. This isn’t just a pitch; it’s a meticulously honed weapon, amplified by impeccable command and a delivery so smooth it appears effortless, making opponents question reality with every deceptive dart. In 2025, hitters are only managing a .152 batting average against Woo’s signature pitch, the lowest mark for any starting pitcher’s four-seamer in Major League Baseball, and its 28.6% whiff rate trails only a select few elite arms.

From College Struggles to MLB Stardom: The Woo Revelation

Woo’s emergence as the Mariners’ most dependable starter, instrumental in their bid for a division title not seen since 2001, is a testament to a journey marked by a slow burn. His record-setting streak of 25 consecutive starts spanning at least six innings with two or fewer walks, a mark that surpassed Hall of Famer Juan Marichal’s 1968 record, underscores his newfound dominance. Yet, this wasn’t an overnight sensation; it was a development forged through resilience and a fundamental re-evaluation of his own capabilities.

The College Years: A Pitcher Searching for Identity

As a high schooler, Bryan Woo harbored dreams of being a two-way player, excelling both on the mound and in the infield. His collegiate aspirations at Cal Poly initially mirrored this ambition, but the coaching staff had other plans. “I didn’t want to pitch only,” Woo recalled, “I wanted to be an infielder or two-way player.” The reality of college baseball, however, swiftly shifted his focus.

Upon accepting his fate as a full-time pitcher, Woo found himself oscillating between the bullpen and the rotation at Cal Poly. His early efforts, even with some scouting interest piqued during summers in the Alaska Baseball League, were decidedly uninspiring. “I wasn’t very good,” he admitted. “I had one-and-a-half pitches in college: four-seam, no two-seam. My slider was not great.” His 6.49 ERA across three seasons painted a stark picture. The prevailing college philosophy of pitching “down in the zone, to the corners… and get ground balls” led Woo to believe his stuff was inherently limited, requiring pinpoint control to succeed.

This period was further complicated by an elbow injury that prematurely ended his junior season and necessitated Tommy John surgery. The prognosis for his professional prospects seemed dim, making an early selection in the 2021 draft a distant hope.

The Mariners’ Vision: Seeing Potential Beyond the Surface

Despite Woo’s raw numbers and injury, the Mariners saw something special. They identified him as a potential hidden gem, willing to invest in his rehab and development. Trent Blank, the team’s director of pitching strategy, was notably enthusiastic, even suggesting Woo as a potential first-overall pick. This foresight was rooted in Woo’s exceptional athleticism and the fluidity of his delivery, qualities that hinted at immense upside once he was healthy and immersed in Seattle’s renowned pitching development program. Ultimately, Woo was drafted in the sixth round, 174th overall, a move that has since proven spectacularly prescient.

Unlocking the Fastball: A Metamorphosis Fueled by Analytics

Even before he was cleared to pitch again, Woo began to understand the Mariners’ faith in his potential. The team’s analytical approach demystified his own mechanics. “They have a presentation for you about your stuff and how it plays,” Woo explained. He learned that his four-seam fastball, with its unusually low release height and remarkable mobility down the mound, was a nightmare for hitters when elevated. This was a revelation, as he had been trained to throw it lower for ground balls.

The rehabilitation process itself, which prioritized throwing fastballs as he rebuilt arm strength, accelerated this understanding. “That was the one I learned the fastest how it was going to play,” Woo stated. He began to grasp that his fastball’s true efficacy lay in its ability to play at the top of the zone, a stark contrast to his previous approach.

The Evolution of an Elite Pitcher: Command, Deception, and a Devastating Two-Seamer

As Woo progressed through the minor leagues, his dazzling delivery and impactful fastball became the talk of the organization. His friendship with fellow 2021 draftee Bryce Miller, who experienced Woo’s dominance firsthand in Double-A Arkansas, solidified this reputation. “That’s the first time I’ve seen a guy that has that low of release height, with the [vertical movement] on the fastball,” Miller remarked. “It’s really smooth. And you watch him from the side, it doesn’t look like he’s even trying to throw hard.”

It was in Arkansas that Woo also introduced a potent two-seam fastball, or sinker, to his arsenal. While his four-seamer and slider were already effective, he sought another weapon to induce weaker contact and streamline his outings. The sinker proved to be the missing piece, earning him a major-league call-up after a mere nine Double-A starts, bypassing Triple-A entirely.

Pitching coach Pete Woodworth described the experience of standing in against Woo’s pitches as eye-opening. “Standing in on Woo’s four and then two… the difference in those two pitches, how much they moved and how well he can tunnel them—I had never really seen that before.”

In 2025, Woo’s reliance on his fastballs is extreme: 47.5% four-seamers and 25.5% sinkers, accounting for 73% of his pitches – the highest combined rate among MLB starting pitchers. This extreme utilization, however, is now complemented by a significantly improved secondary arsenal.

Mastering the Secondary Pitches: The Key to Consistent Dominance

While his fastballs are his bedrock, Woo’s recent progress with his breaking balls and changeup has fueled his breakout season. “He practices those pitches and builds the confidence in those in between starts,” Woodworth noted. “In the game… you lean on the heaters, but he’s shown the ability to go to his secondaries in big situations and make big pitches, which he hasn’t really been able to do in years past. It was heater or bust.”

Woo himself emphasizes this evolution: “It’s about knowing my strengths and pitching to my strengths always, but raising the floor of the secondary pitches and consistency with those so that I can use them when I want.”

Rotation-mate Logan Gilbert has witnessed this transformation firsthand. “The breaking balls have gotten better,” he observed. “He’s working on the changeup, too. It’s always been pretty good, but I feel like he’s making some progress there this year.” Gilbert also highlighted Woo’s newfound ability to strategically deploy his secondary pitches, a crucial development for navigating lineups multiple times and for clutch situations.

The Illusion of Ease: How Woo’s Fastball Deceives Elite Hitters

Shortstop J.P. Crawford humorously notes, “It looks like he’s just throwing BP out there, and it comes out 96-97 [mph].” This perceived effortlessness, combined with his deception and a fastball that appears to rise, creates a profound illusion for hitters. Catcher Cal Raleigh, who has caught Woo for a significant portion of his starts, attests to this, “You can just tell by swings—guys feel like they’re seeing it, and they’re not. It’s created a lot of angry hitters.”

Mookie Betts, after facing Woo, famously remarked on his podcast about the perceived rise: “It looked like it was here, but it was, like, up here every single time.” This optical illusion, created by a low release point and a fastball with exceptional carry, makes it incredibly difficult for hitters to square up. Even when seemingly on time, they swing at the wrong part of the plate.

Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto notes the increased velocity has amplified an already effective pitch. “The difference between draft day and today is it’s much harder,” Dipoto said. “When he first joined the organization, it would settle around 93-94 and have the same impact, but now he’s doing it at [95-97], and it just makes it that much harder to catch up with.”

Dominating the Zone: A New Era of Pitching Efficiency

Woo’s newfound confidence and mastery of his arsenal have led him to embrace the Mariners’ philosophy of dominating the strike zone. His record-setting streak of efficient outings is a prime example. “The efficiency in the strike zone that’s required to do that… from start one to 25, he never got off the throttle,” Dipoto remarked. Even in innings where he might have had to labor, they are often contained affairs, quickly followed by periods of exceptional efficiency.

His 4% walk rate since the beginning of last season is tied with teammate George Kirby for the lowest among pitchers with at least 300 innings thrown over that span. Furthermore, his 57.9% zone rate in 2025 is the highest among qualified starting pitchers. This fearlessness in attacking the zone, as Dipoto puts it, stems from supreme self-confidence: “He’s so brave in the strike zone. He’ll just attack.”

The development of Bryan Woo serves as a compelling case study for the future of pitching. It highlights the transformative power of embracing analytical insights, the importance of a complete arsenal, and the unshakeable confidence that comes from knowing your true strengths. As hitters continue to grapple with his deceptive fastballs and an ever-improving repertoire, Woo is not just an emerging ace; he’s a harbinger of how pitching dominance will be defined in the years to come.

What are your thoughts on the evolution of Bryan Woo’s pitching? Share your predictions for the future of dominant fastballs in the comments below!