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Your board is going to question you a question in the next twelve months, if they haven’t already: “What’s our AI strategy, and why should we believe it’s enough?” Many executives locate themselves in these discussions, reflecting on the stakes involved in AI integration. It’s common to hear answers that sound reasonable at first glance—references to copilots, chatbots, and efficiency metrics like “Hours Saved.” However, framing AI merely as a technology initiative overlooks the greater existential implications of this decision.
AI represents more than just another technology wave. It embodies a significant bet on the potential to unlock productivity gains that could fundamentally reshape organizational trajectories and the broader economic landscape.
The stakes of this bet are becoming increasingly apparent, particularly with the U.S. Government’s launch of the “Genesis Mission” in November. This initiative aims to harness AI for scientific discovery, integrating 17 national labs, vast federal data, and the world’s most powerful supercomputers into a platform designed to double research productivity within a decade. This is not a trivial pilot program; it is a substantial commitment from the federal government, highlighting the belief that AI could be the most impactful productivity technology since electrification.
The Genesis Mission: An Economic Bet
This initiative is more than a technological endeavor; it is an economic strategy addressing a fundamental issue: the current economic system increasingly relies on productivity breakthroughs that have yet to materialize. Economist Richard Duncan, who has extensively studied what he terms “creditism,” suggests that we no longer operate within a traditional capitalist framework. Instead, economic growth has been driven by a continuous expansion of credit since the U.S. Abandoned the gold standard in the early 1970s.
To illustrate the scale of this shift, consider that total U.S. Debt was $1 trillion in 1964 but has surged to over $100 trillion in recent years. This expansion has facilitated venture capital, cloud infrastructure, and the creation of unicorn startups, all of which underpin the digital economy. However, this credit-based system has an inherent flaw: it requires continual expansion. When this expansion falters, instability ensues.
The Pressure on Productivity
Historically, credit contractions have preceded economic downturns, as evidenced in 1930 and 2008. In both instances, the resulting crises prompted significant government interventions that provided temporary relief but did not resolve the underlying issues. The question remains: how do we generate sufficient productivity gains to develop debt sustainable while fostering real economic expansion?
This dilemma is now arriving on your desk. Despite hefty investments in technology, productivity growth has stagnated. Many organizations find themselves in a familiar cycle: substantial investments in digital transformation yield only incremental improvements, leaving stakeholders frustrated. The technology may function properly, costs can decrease, yet the productivity metrics fail to reveal significant movement.
AI’s Unique Potential
AI stands apart from previous technological advancements not because of the current hype but due to its unique mechanisms. By analyzing vast data patterns, designing experiments, running simulations, and revealing insights that would take humans years to uncover, AI offers the potential to operate on a fundamentally different productivity curve.
The Genesis Mission embodies a $100 billion wager on this potential, positing that AI-driven discoveries in fields like energy, materials science, and biotechnology can yield the breakthroughs necessary for economic growth. This effort is a clear indication that Washington views AI as a pivotal technology for future growth.
What Which means for Your Organization
As you prepare for upcoming board meetings, the critical question isn’t just whether AI will transform your industry. It’s about whether your organization will be the one leading that transformation or merely adapting to it.
The Genesis Mission’s strategy is a lesson in ambition that organizations should emulate. Here are key insights to consider:
- Stop Treating AI as a Budget Line Item: AI should be viewed as a platform investment comparable to cloud migration—potentially even more significant. If AI can indeed enable substantial productivity gains, underinvestment poses an existential risk.
- Think Beyond Simple Insights: Rather than focusing on AI as a tool for summarizing documents, consider its potential for simulating supply chains, modeling customer behavior, and testing market strategies in a virtual environment.
- Build for Continuous Learning: Organizations must establish infrastructures that promote ongoing learning and adaptability. Without the ability to measure outcomes and integrate lessons learned, efforts may ultimately lack a solid foundation.
While there is a possibility that AI might plateau or that productivity gains might not materialize at scale, the greater risk lies in failing to act. Organizations must recognize the importance of making informed investments now to navigate the complexities of the evolving economic landscape.
A New Beginning
Duncan starkly frames the choice before us: appropriate investments could allow us to navigate the current credit trap and foster genuine economic growth. Conversely, insufficient action may lead to stagnation and instability, as historical patterns suggest.
The Genesis Mission symbolizes the government’s commitment to making the right bet on AI. The responsibility now falls on organizations to adopt a similar mindset at their scale, understanding that their decisions in the coming months will have significant ripple effects.
As you prepare to respond to your board’s inquiries regarding your AI strategy, remember that vague assurances of being “thoughtful and deliberate” will not suffice. Instead, demonstrate that you recognize AI’s profound implications and are prepared to invest in its potential, because it matters significantly.
