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Former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky asserts that China possesses significant leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet appears unwilling to exert decisive pressure. Khodorkovsky’s assessment, reflecting a growing concern within European political circles, hinges on the belief that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves China’s strategic interests. This dynamic, he argues, necessitates a unified European approach in concert with Beijing to potentially alter Moscow’s trajectory.

The core of Khodorkovsky’s argument centers on China’s economic and political support for Russia, which has been crucial since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. While China maintains it is a neutral actor, Western officials and analysts increasingly view Beijing as a key enabler of Moscow’s war effort. The relationship between the two countries has deepened, particularly in the areas of energy trade and technology, providing Russia with a vital economic lifeline amidst international sanctions. Understanding this complex interplay is critical for navigating the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly as the war in Ukraine continues.

China’s Strategic Calculus

According to Khodorkovsky, China benefits from a protracted conflict in Ukraine. A weakened Russia, dependent on Chinese support, aligns with Beijing’s long-term strategic goals of diminishing Western influence and reshaping the global order. This perspective aligns with assessments from the European Council on Foreign Relations, which highlights that China prioritizes security above all other policy implications and views the current international situation as an opportunity to challenge American hegemony. The organization notes that under Xi Jinping, China sees its relationship with Russia as its most important partnership in confronting the United States.

This isn’t simply a matter of ideological alignment. China’s economic interests are too at play. The disruption of global energy markets caused by the war has allowed China to secure discounted energy supplies from Russia, bolstering its own economic position. The conflict has diverted Western attention and resources, creating space for China to pursue its objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. As the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) points out, China and Russia share common interests in weakening U.S. Leadership, fracturing Western unity, and creating strategic paralysis across the democratic world.

The Need for European Unity

Khodorkovsky emphasizes that any meaningful shift in China’s policy towards Russia requires a coordinated European response. He believes that a unified front from the European Union, coupled with a clear understanding of China’s motivations, is essential to potentially influence Beijing’s calculations. But, he acknowledges the difficulty of this task, given China’s unwillingness to notice Russia defeated in Ukraine.

European leaders are already grappling with this challenge. In February 2026, EU leaders reached a broad agreement to restructure the 27-nation bloc’s economy as they face pressures from a potentially returning Donald Trump administration, as well as from Russia and China, according to the Associated Press. This restructuring aims to bolster the EU’s economic resilience and strategic autonomy, enabling it to better navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.

Divergent Threats: Russia vs. China

While both Russia and China present challenges to European security, experts emphasize the need to differentiate between the two. A recent analysis from The Diplomat argues that China and Russia do not pose the same type of hard security threat to Europe. Russia’s actions are characterized by direct military aggression and attempts to destabilize neighboring countries, while China’s influence is primarily exerted through economic and political means. This distinction is crucial for developing targeted strategies to address each threat effectively.

The differing nature of the threats also impacts the potential for leverage. While direct sanctions and military deterrence may be effective against Russia, a different approach is needed to influence China. Focusing on areas where China and Russia have diverging interests, and increasing the cost to China of supporting Russia’s war effort, may be a more productive strategy.

Looking Ahead

The relationship between China, Russia, and the West remains a critical factor in determining the future of European security. As China continues to strengthen its economic and political ties with Russia, the EU faces a growing challenge in balancing its interests and values. The coming months will likely see increased diplomatic efforts to engage with China, coupled with continued efforts to bolster European defense capabilities and economic resilience. The success of these efforts will depend on the ability of European leaders to forge a unified front and develop a coherent strategy for navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.

What are your thoughts on the evolving relationship between China and Russia? Share your perspectives in the comments below.