Every time the World Cup has been held in North America, the trophy has traveled south. Will Argentina or Brazil be able to lift the cup in 2026?

Previous FIFA World Cups held in North America have proven to be favorable terrain for South American teams.

Whenever the tournament has been played in the Concacaf region, the trophy has ended up in the hands of a South American team. Brazil was crowned champion in Mexico 1970 and in the United States 1994, while Argentina triumphed in Mexico in 1986.

Following Friday’s draw to determine the 2026 tournament groups in Canada, Mexico and the United States, what are the chances of CONMEBOL achieving another victory?

Lionel Scaloni took the trophy on stage before the draw, and the Argentine coach has every right to dream of keeping it for another four years. It would be a historic feat: no team has managed to retain the World Cup outside its continent. But things have been going very well for the Albiceleste since they became world champions in Qatarrevalidating the America’s Cup last year and successfully qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

The good news: the team is no longer so dependent on Lionel Messi. Oddly enough, in the Copa América final, they even improved after he was substituted. And the captain was not present for the 4-1 rout of Brazil in March, the most notable performance of the qualifying phase. Messi is still important, but there are other options, such as the duo of Atlético Madrid formed by the midfielder Thiago Almada and the forward Julian Alvarez.

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The title possibilities of Argentina and Spain

Mario Kempes and Mario Suárez analyze the options of two of the protagonists of the 2026 World Cup.

The bad news: as expected, it is proving virtually impossible to replace Angel Di Mariawith his versatility, his one-on-one ability and his ability to shine on big occasions. Even more worrying is that no new top defenders have emerged. The Argentine defense is the same as in Qatar, where it nearly crumbled under pressure game after game. This time it could be expensive.

Scaloni and company have no reason to complain about a group that pairs them with Algeria, Austria and Jordan, but there is a possible trap right after. One of the novel aspects of the draw was that Argentina and Spain were on track to meet in the final. This works as long as both teams finish first in their groups. But, whims of fate, if one comes first and the other comes second, they will face each other in the first elimination round, and that was not in anyone’s plans.

A full program of 18 World Cup qualifying matches, plus a Copa América, should have been more than enough to prepare a team for this tournament. But Brazil wasted most of this time, mired in instability. Carlo Ancelotti has arrived as coach with very little time to get the team ready. The first signs are encouraging. There has been immense improvement, and Brazil now look like a cohesive team, but it is still unclear whether they are capable of ending a 24-year wait for an all-time record sixth world title.

Always pragmatic, Ancelotti wants to take advantage of Brazil’s main strength: a wealth of offensive talent, especially on the flanks, which will put any defense in trouble. He has recovered the duo of Real Madrid with Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo and he was quick—and accurate—in giving free rein to the young prodigy Stephen. But the coach is well aware of a possible problem: lack of balance. Ancelotti’s first measure was to call Casemiroinvaluable for his ability to organize the game from the center of the field, but the player of the Manchester United He will be 34 years old in the World Cup. Will Brazil be able, against the best rivals, to play with four forwards, leaving only Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães in midfield? And can they do it in extreme heat conditions? The March friendlies against France and Croatia could provide a clue to the first question. The second will remain unanswered until the World Cup.

The opening match against Morocco looks very interesting. Under an interim coach, Brazil’s first game in the post-Qatar cycle was a friendly against the same opponent, which they lost. Haiti and Scotland seem much more accessible rivals on paper. Winning the group could put Brazil on course for a quarterfinal against Mexico or England, and then a semifinal (so exciting!) against Argentina.

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Roberto Carlos: “We ask too much of Neymar”

The former soccer player, who was in the draw for the upcoming World Cup, spoke exclusively with ESPN and referred to the present of the Brazil National Team.

A World Cup in the United States brings with it traumatic memories for Colombiawhich arrived in the United States in 1994 with overwhelming euphoria, only to fall apart and lead to tragedy. More than three decades later, everything seems more realistic and, after the surprising absence at Qatar 2022, the current generation is eager to make its mark.

The team depends almost entirely on the duo formed by James Rodriguez —who reserves almost all of his best football for the national team— and Luis Diaz. Argentine coach Néstor Lorenzo found a formula that allowed both players to complement each other perfectly, usually with a trio of disciplined midfielders doing the dirty work. Colombia had a long unbeaten streak, then went through a difficult few months after losing the Copa América final, but appear to have recovered and are currently unbeaten in nine games.

They have reasons to aspire big after being placed in a group with PortugalUzbekistan and probably the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Jamaica. Not reaching the quarterfinals would be a disappointment, and not getting past the group stage would be a disaster. But do they have the roster depth necessary to be a serious contender?

The solid defense of Ecuador They only conceded one goal in the last 11 rounds of the qualifying phase. The team is undefeated in 15 games. And yet, Argentine coach Sebastián Beccacece is under pressure.

The reason? The lack of goals. Fortunately for him, they managed to score two goals against New Zealand in their last friendly match. But they recently had four consecutive goalless draws, and a staggering eight of their 18 qualifying matches ended 0-0. The team continues to depend on the veteran forward End of Valenciawho scored all of Ecuador’s goals in the 2014 World Cup. Given the defensive solidity, the appearance of a new center forward is urgent. Another concern is that the star midfielder Moisés Caicedo He will be suspended for what could be a crucial match against the Ivory Coast. Ecuador will surely want to secure their place in the second round before facing Germany in their final group stage match. A victory against Curacao is expected, which increases the importance of the match against the current African champions.

There are reasons for optimism. Ecuador is a fast and physically strong team, and no team will want to take on their defense. The experience of the World Cup in Qatar has been assimilated, and their solidity throughout the qualifying phase shows that they have learned to play important games. If they manage to score a few more goals, they could be one of the surprises of the tournament.

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Sebastián Beccacece: “You have to really enjoy this moment”

The coach of the Ecuador National Team spoke with SportsCenter after the World Cup draw. “They are very nice feelings, of gratitude, and for being at such an important event and accompanying a team of very talented soccer players.”

It would be a serious mistake for the United States to make too much of its recent victory over Paraguay. As As previous coaches have complained, the Paraguayans are rarely at their best in friendly matches. Their historical identity is based less on flashes of individual talent and more on resilience, collective play and concentration. The first opponents of Mauricio Pochettino’s hosts may not score many points for their style, but they can get plenty thanks to sheer tenacity.

The United States has participated in the development of this Paraguayan team. In the middle of last year, they left the Copa América in a state of disorganization. They had lost all their Cup matches and found themselves in a difficult situation in the World Cup qualifiers. The situation seemed hopeless, until the Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro was appointed. After being a surprise with Ecuador in the previous World Cup cycle, Alfaro’s work with Paraguay has been even better. This discreet and serious man, dressed in a navy blue suit, has become a national hero, since his team, with few player changes compared to previous regimes, suffered only one defeat in the last 12 ties. The secret? Alfaro’s connection with the players, his tactical organization and his ability to get the best out of the former La Liga striker Premier League, Julio Enciso.

This is Paraguay’s first World Cup since 2010, where they reached the quarterfinals and gave Spain a difficult game. They almost certainly don’t have the quality to overcome that, but in a group with the United States, Australia and one of the winners of the European play-offs, they can certainly be competitive.

Marcelo Bielsa seemed like a good option for Uruguay. After a disappointing performance in Qatar, the team needed a generational change, and there was a group of players who seemed well suited to the coach’s dynamic approach. The new Uruguayan team started very well, but then, during last year’s Copa América, the team stagnated.

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Luis Bou: Spain has no excuse for finishing first in the group

The Spanish team is part of Group H along with Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.

The surprising 5-1 loss to the United States last month was no fluke. Relations in the locker room are clearly strained. Luis Suarez He retired from international football, harshly criticizing Bielsa’s distant attitude and his lack of dialogue with the players. A team designed to attack has not been creating scoring chances: in eight of the last 12 qualifying matches they have failed to score. And then, against the United States, the defense fell apart.

Can Bielsa recover his best version? The draw has been favorable to them. The matches against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde offer Uruguay the opportunity to find their rhythm in the tournament and secure their place in the knockout phase before facing Spain. But even at his best, Bielsa has never been considered a specialist tournament coach. Instead of measuring his team’s strength, he has shown a tendency to exhaust them prematurely. Can he and Uruguay find the perfect combination? It could be one of the most fascinating questions of the entire tournament.