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Moscow’s ability to recover from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is severely hampered, with full restoration to pre-war levels potentially decades away, according to Kremlin opposition figure Mark Feigin. The assessment, delivered in a TV24 broadcast, points to significant technological setbacks and a failure to demonstrate strength on the global stage.
Feigin, a lawyer and activist known for his commentary on Russian affairs via his YouTube channel “Feigin Live,” argues that Russia has historically “lost” the war due to its inability to achieve victory. This failure, he contends, extends beyond military outcomes to encompass a broader loss of technological advancement. He contrasted Russia’s situation with China, noting that despite its own authoritarian political system, Beijing has demonstrably entered the era of neural networks – a leap Russia has not made.
The conflict, now entering its fourth year, could have concluded in 2022, Feigin suggests, when Ukrainian forces achieved significant operational successes. Though, the situation has evolved, and the outcome is now heavily influenced by the positions and decisions of global powers, including the United States. He believes Ukraine’s immediate priority, particularly under a potential second Trump administration, is survival, necessitating a pragmatic approach to engagement with the former president.
“Historically, Russia has lost this war because it has not won. It has not proven its strength,” Feigin stated, as reported by nra.lv. “Moscow has as well lost its technological future.”
Technological and Economic Setbacks
Feigin’s analysis extends beyond military capabilities, highlighting a fundamental loss of technological momentum. He argues that a large country with a sparsely populated territory requires advanced technologies for effective governance, a capability Russia has demonstrably lost. The scale of the required rebuilding effort, he emphasizes, goes beyond simply reconstituting the armed forces; it necessitates a complete reorientation of industry and the economic landscape.
The assessment aligns with broader concerns about the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s access to critical technologies. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, the European Union, and other nations have imposed sweeping sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector, defense industry, and technology imports. These measures aim to cripple Russia’s ability to wage war and modernize its economy. la.lv reported on similar assessments.
Ukraine’s Strategy and the Role of the US
Feigin’s comments also shed light on Ukraine’s evolving strategy in light of the upcoming US presidential election. He suggests that Kyiv is prioritizing a non-confrontational approach to Donald Trump, recognizing the potential for shifts in US policy. This strategy, he argues, is driven by a need to secure Ukraine’s survival in a post-war environment, regardless of the conflict’s ultimate outcome.
The potential for a change in US policy is a significant factor in the current geopolitical landscape. During his first term, Trump frequently questioned the value of US alliances and expressed skepticism about providing aid to Ukraine. His potential return to the White House raises concerns among Ukrainian officials and their Western allies about the future of US support.
Feigin’s Legal Challenges
Mark Feigin himself faces legal challenges from Russian authorities. TVNET reported that a Russian court has issued an arrest warrant for Feigin on charges of spreading “false information” about the Russian military. Feigin, who no longer resides in Russia, is a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin’s regime and a vocal advocate for Ukraine.
Looking ahead, the long-term implications of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s diminished capacity for recovery remain uncertain. The coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of the war and the future of the region. Continued international support for Ukraine, coupled with sustained pressure on Russia, will be essential in shaping the outcome.
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