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Geneva – As diplomatic efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal continue in Geneva, the specter of military confrontation looms larger, with the U.S. Military actively preparing for sustained operations against Iran should negotiations fail. The situation is further complicated by President Trump’s explicit threats of military action and a significant build-up of U.S. Forces in the region, raising concerns about a potential escalation of conflict.
The current round of talks, mediated by Oman, focuses on Iran’s nuclear program, but faces headwinds from demands for broader limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, particularly from Israel. President Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December that the U.S. Would support Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if a deal isn’t reached, according to two sources familiar with the matter. This willingness to potentially authorize military action is underscored by the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups to the waters around Iran, signaling a clear demonstration of force.
U.S. Military Posture and Planning
The U.S. Military is preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran, should President Trump order an attack, according to two U.S. Officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. This preparation suggests a more serious and protracted conflict than previously anticipated. The Pentagon recently added an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, bolstering the existing military presence with thousands of additional troops, fighter aircraft, and guided-missile destroyers. This build-up is intended to provide the capability to both launch attacks and defend against potential retaliation.
President Trump acknowledged the difficulty in reaching an agreement with Iran, stating, “Sometimes you have to have fear. That’s the only thing that really will get the situation taken care of.” He also indicated he would be involved in the negotiations “indirectly,” characterizing Iran as a “typically very tough negotiator” but expressing a belief that the regime ultimately wants to avoid the consequences of failing to reach a deal.
Iran’s Response and Regional Dynamics
Despite the escalating tensions and the U.S. Military build-up, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the U.S. Military threat as the talks began, stating, “A warship is certainly a dangerous weapon, but even more dangerous is the weapon capable of sinking it.” This defiant rhetoric underscores Iran’s unwillingness to yield to pressure.
Retired four-star U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane warned that President Trump is moving closer to a decision on using military force against Iran, as he escalates pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. He predicted that any military action would be “formidable,” suggesting a significant and potentially widespread conflict.
Negotiation Teams and Key Players
The U.S. Delegation in Geneva is led by Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Iranian team is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of uncertainty, with the U.S. Fully expecting Iran to retaliate if attacked, according to officials.
The White House, however, maintains that President Trump has “all options on the table” regarding Iran, with spokesperson Anna Kelly stating that he “listens to a variety of perspectives…but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security.”
The possibility of a sustained campaign carries increased risk to U.S. Forces and could broaden the conflict across the Middle East. A state building in Tehran was recently adorned with a billboard depicting a symbolic image of a destroyed U.S. Aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), signaling Iran’s potential response to military action.
What to Watch Next
The coming days and weeks will be critical as negotiators attempt to bridge the gap between U.S. And Iranian positions. The outcome of these talks, coupled with President Trump’s decision-making regarding potential military action, will determine whether the region descends into a wider conflict. Continued monitoring of U.S. Military deployments and statements from key leaders will be essential in assessing the evolving situation.
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