The outgoing Biden administration has finally overcome its reluctance to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons systems to conduct deep strikes into Russia in its defense, as well as providing almost $1 billion more in lethal equipment – all to provide Kyïv maximum assistance before the uncertainty of the Trump 2 era begins. Similar deterrence gaps – though currently less volatile, to be sure – create vulnerabilities elsewhere in the European Union’s and NATO’s perimeter, too. This risk is clearest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the EU has consistently understaffed the primary deterrent role prescribed in the Dayton Peace Accords and annually renewed by the United Nations Security Council.

There’s a relatively low-cost way the Biden administration can, in its waning days, carry its lessons to that region, too – that there is no substitute for on-the-ground power in reassuring populations – and deterring potential disruptors.

The EU’s military force for Bosnia, EUFOR, established its military operation Althea to take over the peace enforcement mandate from NATO’s Stabilization Force (SFOR) 20 years ago under a mutual conditional agreement: that it be backed by NATO under a formula known as “Berlin-plus”, which authorizes the EU to request support from the larger Alliance, including logistics, intelligence, and other assets. That allowed the United States and the U.K. to draw down and redirect their forces to Iraq and Afghanistan.

For EUFOR’s first few years, it maintained a credible deterrent of heavy brigade strength (approximately 6,500 troops) against any threats to Bosnia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and – crucially – to a “safe and secure environment” for its citizens. The expectation was that violence at the command of former belligerents in the 1990s wars who were now political leaders would simply not be permitted.

That assurance enabled the decade of postwar progress through 2005. That was a year of genuine optimism in Bosnia, when the country seemed to be moving toward EU and NATO membership with momentum, and new constitutional models for more accountable governance were widely discussed.

But as the EU’s self-confidence ballooned that it could transform the postwar Balkans solely by bringing them into the union, its will to maintain its military capacity in Bosnia deflated, most markedly in 2007. Assessments that I conducted in

Spain Shines as Europe’s Economy Stumbles

declared Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez during a Socialist Party congress in Seville on December 1.

His statement reflects a stark contrast to the economic landscape across the rest of Europe. While larger economies are struggling, Spain’s is experiencing a remarkable upswing, projected to grow by an impressive 3% this year. This growth rate is nearly four times the euro-area average, showcasing Spain’s impressive economic resilience.

Rebounding from the Pandemic

The turnaround is particularly striking considering the harsh impact of the pandemic on Spain. The country was hit hard, experiencing widespread job losses and economic disruption. However, Spain has emerged from the crisis stronger than expected. It now boasts a remarkable 1.8 million more jobs compared to the end of 2019, demonstrating a robust recovery and a vibrant labor market.

This economic resurgence hasn’t gone unnoticed by the global financial community. Investors are increasingly optimistic about Spain’s prospects, attracted to its robust growth and responsible fiscal policies. A significant indicator of this confidence is the fact that Spain’s bond yields have fallen below those of its northern neighbor, France, for the first time since 2007.

This shift signifies a major turning point. It demonstrates that investors perceive Spain as a more stable and fiscally secure investment destination compared to France.

A Beacon for the Future?

Spain’s economic success is attracting attention not just within Europe, but globally. The nation is positioning itself as a model of successful recovery and a potential leader in the post-pandemic world.

The reasons for Spain’s success are multifaceted. Government policies aimed at stimulating growth and investment have played a crucial role. Alongside this, Spain’s strong tourism industry, a key driver of its economy, has bounced back strongly as travel restrictions have eased.

However, challenges remain. Inflation, a concern across the globe, is also impacting Spain. The government is working to mitigate the effects of rising prices on households and businesses while maintaining its commitment to economic growth.

Nevertheless, the general outlook for Spain is positive. The country’s economic resilience, job creation, and attractiveness to global investors point towards a promising future. Sanchez’s words suggesting Spain’s emergence as a “global reference point for prosperity” may not be far from reality. Time will tell if Spain can maintain its momentum and solidify its position as a European and global economic powerhouse.

Ethiopia and Somalia Mend Fences, Agree to Cooperation on Key Issues

A long-standing dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia has ended after days of intense talks in Ankara, paving the way for a promising new chapter in relations. The landmark agreement, mediated by Turkey, addressed a critical issue for Ethiopia securing reliable access to the sea.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud engaged in extended discussions, culminating in an agreement that marks a significant shift in the relationship between the two East African nations. During a meeting that lasted for what was described as “eight hours,” they focused on bridging a rift that has strained relations for nearly a year.

The deal aims to ensure relievable and sustainable access for Ethiopia to sea through its neighbor Somalia. The details, released by Turkey, highlight a collaborative approach with a commitment to work closely on commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements. Both parties agreed that Ethiopia would access the sea while respecting Somalia’s sovereignty.

To implement the agreement, technical discussions between Ethiopia and Somalia will begin no later than the end of February 2025. These discussions are expected to continue for a four-month period, with Turkey offering assistance to navigate any complexities between the two nations.

Addressing a press conference, both leaders expressed optimism and commitment to the success of the agreement.

“We have addressed the misunderstandings that have occurred over the last year,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated.

"Ethiopia’s desire for secure access to the sea is a peaceful venture and will benefit our neighbors, it is a venture that must be seen in the spirit of cooperation, not suspicion."

“We now have a path forward, one known as agreed and trusted means to resolve any possible future disagreements based on fellowship and mutual benefit.” underscored by Prime Minister Mohamud’s comments" . This agreement has put a halt amidst their differences

Abiy elaborated, saying, “We, as parties involved,

are ready to work with the leadership and people of Somalia.

“We enter the New Year with a renewed commitment

to collaboration, friendship and direct coordination,” the Ethiopian leader expressed.""

The agreement was hailed as a “historic agreement” by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who served as the mediator.
.Adding that he hoped the agreement would be “the first step toward a new beginning based on peace and cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia.”

Erdogan’s assessment was optimistic. He said, "I believe with the meeting we had today, especially with Ethiopia’s demands to access the sea, my brother Sheikh Mohamud will give the necessary support for accessing the sea."