Tokyo – A deepening diplomatic rift between China and Japan is significantly impacting tourism, with Japan experiencing a sharp decline in Chinese visitors during the crucial Lunar Novel Year holiday period. Once a top destination for Chinese travelers, Japan is now falling out of favor as Beijing expresses displeasure over Tokyo’s stance on Taiwan, impacting a sector that was previously experiencing a boost from a weak yen.
The shift in travel patterns comes after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested the possibility of deploying Japan’s self-defense forces if China were to invade Taiwan. This statement, made in November, ignited a strong reaction from China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify it with the mainland, by force if necessary. The resulting diplomatic tensions are now directly translating into economic consequences for Japan’s tourism industry.
Dramatic Drop in Chinese Tourism
Chinese tourism to Japan almost halved in December compared to the same period in 2025, according to Japan’s transport ministry. This downturn is expected to continue throughout the current Lunar New Year travel season, a traditionally busy period for inbound tourism. Instead of Japan, South Korea is poised to become the most popular destination for Chinese travelers during the 40-day travel frenzy, with an estimated 250,000 visitors expected, a 1.5-fold increase from the previous year.
Reports indicate that Japan will receive fewer Chinese tourists than other regional destinations, including Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, and Russia. The anticipated drop in visitors during the Lunar New Year holidays is estimated to be as high as 60% compared to last year. This represents a significant loss for Japan’s tourism sector, which had been hoping to capitalize on the favorable exchange rate.
Escalating Diplomatic Tensions
The dispute over Taiwan has become a central point of contention. Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments in November, asserting that military involvement was an option in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait posing an “existential” threat to Japan, drew sharp criticism from China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently accused Takaichi of attempting to revive Japan’s militarist past during the Munich Security Conference on Monday, stating, “Japanese people should no longer allow themselves to be manipulated or deceived by those far-right forces, or by those who seek to revive militarism.” He warned that Japan risked “self-destruction” if it continued on this path.
Japan responded by lodging a protest through diplomatic channels and condemning Wang’s claims as “factually incorrect and ungrounded.” The Japanese foreign ministry emphasized that its efforts to strengthen defense capabilities are a response to an increasingly severe security environment and are not targeted at any specific country. However, the ministry likewise acknowledged concerns about the increasing military capabilities of some nations in the region, stating Japan “opposes such moves and distances itself from them.”
Liu Xiaoming, China’s special representative on Korean peninsula affairs, further escalated the rhetoric, claiming Takaichi’s remarks revealed Japan’s “unextinguished ambition to invade and colonise Taiwan once again, and the lingering ghost of revived militarism.” In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Liu referenced the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, warning that “the lessons of history are not far away and must be heeded.”
Travel Warnings and Public Sentiment
Beijing has repeatedly warned its citizens about potential safety risks when traveling to Japan, although there have been no reported incidents specifically targeting Chinese tourists. On Sunday, the Chinese consulate general in Osaka again advised Chinese nationals to avoid travel to Japan following a fatal stabbing in the city – an incident that did not involve Chinese nationals.
Despite the official warnings, some Chinese citizens remain undeterred. One individual told the Kyodo news agency that maintaining goodwill between ordinary people from both countries is important. Another, a woman from Shanghai, stated her family still plans to visit Japan, believing the travel alert is primarily intended to fuel criticism of Japan, saying, “But my family has not been brainwashed.”
The situation highlights the complex interplay between geopolitics and tourism, and the potential for diplomatic disputes to have significant economic consequences. The coming weeks will be crucial in observing whether the current trend of declining Chinese tourism to Japan persists and how both countries navigate the ongoing tensions surrounding Taiwan.
As the diplomatic situation remains fluid, the impact on Japan’s tourism sector will continue to be closely monitored. Further developments in the dialogue between Beijing and Tokyo, and any shifts in official travel advisories, will be key indicators of the future of tourism between the two nations.
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