The Skies Are Shifting: How China Is Rapidly Closing the Airpower Gap with the US
While the United States currently maintains the world’s largest air force, a dramatic shift is underway. China isn’t simply building more planes; it’s rapidly modernizing its fleet, aiming for parity – and potentially, superiority – in key areas by 2027. This isn’t just about numbers; it’s a fundamental reshaping of the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The Numbers Game: US Still Leads, But For How Long?
As of 2025, the US boasts approximately 1,790 fighter and interceptor aircraft, compared to China’s 1,212. Looking at total military aircraft, the disparity is even wider: 13,043 for the US versus 3,309 for China (according to FlightGlobal and GlobalFirepower.com). However, this raw count masks a critical detail: a significant portion of America’s airpower consists of aging platforms. China, meanwhile, is focused on building a modern, technologically advanced air force.
The Fourth-Generation Surge: A Fleet-Wide Upgrade
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is undergoing a comprehensive modernization program, driven by President Xi Jinping’s ambitious goals. The Pentagon’s 2024 China report highlights that nearly all of China’s fighters are projected to be fourth-generation or better within the next few years. This isn’t incremental improvement; it’s a systematic overhaul, replacing older aircraft with more capable platforms. This rapid modernization is a key component of China’s overall military strategy.
The J-20 “Mighty Dragon”: China’s Fifth-Generation Flagship
At the forefront of this modernization is the J-20, China’s answer to the American F-22 and F-35. Production is reportedly exceeding 100 units annually (Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis), and continuous upgrades are planned. These include enhancements to achieve supercruise capabilities, thrust-vectoring nozzles, and increased internal weapons capacity. China is also actively developing the H-20, a strategic stealth bomber, signaling a long-term commitment to advanced airpower.
Beyond Hardware: Addressing Pilot Training and Networked Warfare
Early assessments of the PLAAF highlighted deficiencies in pilot training and adaptability, with a risk-averse culture hindering effective combat performance (RAND Corporation, 2016). However, recent analysis suggests China is making significant strides in this area. The US military has long excelled at integrating ground, space, and airborne systems into a cohesive “kill chain,” but experts now believe China is rapidly developing similar capabilities (Bloomberg, 2025). This shift towards networked warfare is crucial for maximizing the effectiveness of its modern aircraft.
The Rise of Unmanned Systems: A New Dimension of Airpower
China isn’t solely focused on manned aircraft. Its unmanned systems are also advancing rapidly, becoming increasingly comparable to US drones. The Jiu Tian “High Sky” SS-UAV drone mothership, for example, demonstrates a growing capability in unmanned aerial operations. This expansion into unmanned systems adds another layer of complexity to the evolving airpower landscape.
Quality Control Concerns and the Path Ahead
Despite the impressive progress, challenges remain. Reports suggest concerns about the “shoddy workmanship” of some J-20 components (The National Security Journal), potentially impacting its stealth characteristics. However, these issues are likely being addressed as production matures and quality control processes improve. The key takeaway isn’t perfection, but the relentless pace of development and the clear intent to close the gap with the US.
The coming years will be critical. The US must prioritize investment in next-generation technologies, enhance pilot training, and maintain its edge in networked warfare to counter China’s rapidly modernizing air force. The skies are shifting, and the future of airpower dominance is far from certain. What strategies do you believe the US should prioritize to maintain its advantage in the face of China’s growing airpower? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
