China’s reusable space plane, Shenlong (meaning “Divine Dragon”), embarked on its fourth orbital mission on February 6th, launching from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert. The mission has reignited speculation about the vehicle’s true purpose, as the Chinese government remains largely silent on its activities. This latest flight follows previous missions in September 2020, May 2023 and September 2024, which lasted two days, 276 days, and 266 days respectively.
Although officials state Shenlong is designed to test technologies for “more convenient and affordable round-trip methods for the peaceful use of space,” the secrecy surrounding the program draws comparisons to the U.S. Military’s X-37B space plane. Both vehicles operate with a high degree of classification, fueling questions about their potential military applications. The ambiguity surrounding Shenlong’s objectives underscores a growing trend of opaque space activities by major global powers.
The Shenlong space plane is thought to broadly resemble the X-37B, with analysts estimating both are approximately 29 feet (8.8 meters) in length. The U.S. Space Force is believed to operate two X-37B vehicles, which first reached orbit in 2010 and are currently on their eighth mission, launched in August 2023 atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The X-37B’s initial purpose, as stated by U.S. Military officials, is as a technology testbed, but it too has faced scrutiny and suspicion.
Despite concerns about potential weaponization, experts largely dismiss the idea that either the X-37B or Shenlong are designed for space-to-ground attacks. The Secure World Foundation (SWF) notes that the X-37B’s small payload bay – roughly the size of a pickup truck bed – and limited power generation capabilities make it an impractical platform for delivering weaponry. “Hyperkinetic weapons dropped from the bay would need to be equipped with thrusters capable of performing a significant deorbit burn, which is unlikely given the available room,” the SWF wrote in a fact sheet. The X-37B’s reentry profile, similar to the Space Shuttle, also makes it vulnerable to air defense systems.
Yet, Shenlong distinguishes itself from the X-37B through its demonstrated ability to rendezvous with other objects in space. Unlike the X-37B, which has not performed such maneuvers, Shenlong has released satellites on each of its three previous missions. These satellites have exhibited capabilities ranging from transmission broadcasting to independent propulsion, and Shenlong has conducted “close maneuvers and capture/docking operations” with them, according to the SWF. Imagery captured in August 2024 by amateur astronomer Felix Schöfbänker shows deployed components, potentially solar panels or antennae, from the Shenlong space plane.
Rendezvous and Proximity Operations: A Key Focus?
These rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs) are drawing particular attention from space security experts. Victoria Samson, chief director of space security and stability for the SWF, believes this capability is a priority for the Shenlong program and aligns with broader Chinese space ambitions. “I think that tracks along with other things that they’re doing – you know, conducting RPOs in LEO and GEO,” Samson told Space.com. (GEO, or geostationary orbit, is located 22,236 miles, or 35,876 km, above Earth.)
Mastering RPO technology would allow nations to refuel, repair, and upgrade their own satellites, and potentially inspect or interfere with those of adversaries. Samson suggests that RPO proficiency is becoming essential for maintaining “space superiority.” This capability raises concerns about the potential for anti-satellite (ASAT) activities, although the extent of this risk remains unclear due to the secrecy surrounding both the Shenlong and X-37B programs.
The Need for Transparency
The lack of transparency surrounding these programs fuels speculation and anxiety. Samson argues that increased openness would help alleviate concerns. “I think a little more transparency would help fill in some of the blanks, because otherwise, people tend to just imagine the worst-case scenario,” she said. While the motivations behind the secrecy are understandable from a national security perspective, greater clarity could foster trust and reduce the risk of miscalculation in the increasingly contested domain of space.
As Shenlong continues its fourth mission, the international community will be closely watching for further clues about its capabilities and intentions. The ongoing development and deployment of reusable space planes like Shenlong and the X-37B represent a significant evolution in space technology, with implications for both peaceful exploration and potential military competition. The next steps in these programs will undoubtedly shape the future of space activities for years to come.
What are your thoughts on the increasing militarization of space? Share your comments below.
