The recent capture of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has unleashed a wave of violence across Mexico, raising concerns about security ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which Mexico is co-hosting with the United States and Canada. The CJNG, estimated to have between 18,800 and 33,100 members, responded to El Mencho’s capture with widespread blockades and attacks, impacting travel and daily life in at least 20 states. This surge in activity is prompting questions about whether Mexican authorities can maintain control and ensure the safety of the tournament.
The coordinated response by the CJNG, including the deaths of at least 25 National Guard members during the operation to apprehend El Mencho on February 22nd, demonstrates the cartel’s reach and organizational capacity. While previous cartel leader captures have resulted in retaliatory violence, experts suggest this response is unusually broad and well-coordinated. The cartel’s actions, amplified by social media, appear designed to project strength and demonstrate its continued influence, even with its leader in custody. The scale of the disruption has prompted travel advisories and flight cancellations, directly impacting international travel to affected regions.
CJNG’s Rise and Influence
Founded in 2009, the CJNG rapidly expanded its operations, becoming one of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartels, surpassing even the Sinaloa Cartel in some areas. The cartel’s success is attributed to its control of key trafficking routes, dominance in the synthetic-opioid (fentanyl) supply chain, and a highly militarized structure. According to the U.S. Department of State, the CJNG rose to prominence as leaders of the Valencia/Milenio Cartel began to lose power due to arrests and captures. The cartel is involved in a wide range of criminal activities, including drug trafficking, arms trafficking, human trafficking, fuel theft, and money laundering.
The CJNG’s influence extends beyond criminal activity, with reports suggesting some cartel figures maintain a degree of popularity within local communities by providing financing for local infrastructure and facilities. This complex relationship complicates efforts to combat the cartel, as targeting its leaders can disrupt essential services and alienate local populations. Dr. Eskauriatza noted that the cartel’s response is, in a way, “required by the rules of the game – if you have your leader nabbed, you have to respond, otherwise you look weak.”
Impact on Travel and Tourism
The immediate impact of the violence has been felt by travelers. The U.S. Government has advised Americans in Jalisco to shelter indoors until further notice. Canada has cancelled flights to the Puerto Vallarta airport, and flight tracking apps showed many aeroplanes returning to their departure destinations. Karina Garcia-Reyes, a senior lecturer in criminology at UWE Bristol, suggests there is a “moderate risk” for tourists, but believes authorities will likely be able to address potential risks in the most affected areas, provided Notice no further large-scale military operations.
The potential for disruption extends beyond air travel. The widespread blockades, with a reported 252 incidents across 20 locations, have hampered ground transportation and disrupted supply chains. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a Brookings Institution scholar, highlighted the interconnectedness of the CJNG’s regional cells, suggesting a “tighter” organization than previously understood. This coordinated response underscores the cartel’s ability to exert influence across a significant portion of Mexican territory.
Looking Ahead to the World Cup
While the current situation is concerning, experts emphasize that the CJNG’s actions appear to be a display of force rather than an insurgency. Jaime López-Aranda, a former intelligence official, noted that the cartel largely avoided direct confrontations with government forces and did not target military installations or police stations. However, the incident serves as a stark reminder of the challenges Mexico faces in ensuring security for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The Mexican government will need to demonstrate its ability to maintain control and protect both residents and visitors. Increased security measures, enhanced intelligence gathering, and continued cooperation with international partners will be crucial. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the authorities can effectively contain the CJNG and prevent further disruptions. The situation remains fluid, and ongoing monitoring of cartel activity and government response will be essential as the World Cup draws closer.
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