Climate Change Prompts Northward Spread Of Five Invasive Reptiles From Hong Kong And Taiwan Into Mainland China
Time: January 21,2026. A newly released risk assessment warns that five invasive reptile species already established in Hong kong and Taiwan could push into inland China as the climate warms. Researchers used advanced distribution modeling to map current habitats and future invasion potential under multiple emission scenarios.
What the study did
Scientists compiled global distribution records from 1970 to 2022,six bioclimatic variables,and land-use data to run a maximum entropy model. They tested three shared socioeconomic pathways and several climate models to forecast changes in suitable habitats from 2050 to 2090. The goal was to forecast how warming temperatures and altered rainfall patterns could reshape invasion risks for five reptiles.
Five reptiles at the center of the warning
The study focuses on the brown anole lizard, the masked chameleon, the Brooke Gecko, the monarch gecko, and the green iguana. All have established breeding populations in Hong Kong and/or Taiwan but have not yet invaded mainland China.
Current distribution patterns
Under present conditions, the brown anole has the widest suitable habitat, spanning much of southeastern and central China.The masked chameleon,Brooke Gecko,and green iguana are mainly concentrated in South China. The monarch gecko has a very narrow presence, limited to the southern coast.
Projected trends into 2090
Climate warming is expected to broaden the suitable zones for all five species and shift the center of thier distribution northwestward and inland. Under a high-emission scenario, the brown anole’s share will remain dominant, with a moderate overall expansion of about 6.5% to 20.4% by 2090. The monarch gecko shows significant relative growth, yet its total area remains under 1% of the region.
| Species | Current Habitat | Projected Expansion by 2090 (SSP585) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Anole | southeast and Central China | 6.5%–20.4% | Accounts for about 62.1% of current suitable habitat |
| Masked Chameleon | South China | 95.8% | Meaningful potential increase in suitable area |
| Brooke Gecko | South China | 366.5% | Very high expansion risk under warming |
| Monarch gecko | Southern coast | 375% | Total area remains under 1% of the region |
| Green Iguana | South China | Not quantified | Expansion likely, but exact figures are not specified |
Key takeaways
Temperature and precipitation emerge as the main determinants of suitability. non-forest vegetation plays a notable role for the brown anole. The study emphasizes that warming will weaken temperature barriers, enabling these species to invade further north and inland.
Implications for policy and monitoring
Experts urge tightened quarantine measures across Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan for high-risk species. They also call for stricter pet-trade regulation and the establishment of a monitoring network in high-risk South China zones. Acknowledged limitations include the absence of dispersal ability and interspecific competition in the model.field verification and mechanism studies are needed to refine predictions.
Why this matters beyond biology
The findings spotlight a broader risk: climate change can amplify biological invasions by expanding the geographic footprint of invasive species. The results offer a framework for othre regions facing similar pressures and underscore the need for proactive biosecurity and adaptive management strategies.
Conclusion
This analysis marks the frist quantitative assessment of how five invasive reptiles could spread from Hong Kong and Taiwan into mainland China under climate change. The brown anole stands out as the highest-priority target for prevention and control. The study underscores the urgency of regional cooperation, targeted measures, and ongoing surveillance to mitigate emerging ecological threats.
Engage with the story
What steps should regional authorities prioritize to curb potential invasions while balancing pet ownership and ecosystem health?
Which local actions can communities take to support early detection and reporting of invasive reptiles?
Share your thoughts in the comments and help spark a constructive debate on proactive biosecurity.
