College Football Playoff Outlook: Week 4 Bowl Projections Update

College football Playoff Projections Following Week 4 (September 21, 2025)

Week 4 delivered impactful results, reshaping the College Football Playoff picture with surprising upsets and dominant performances. Indiana‘s dismantling of Illinois, Texas Tech‘s road win at Utah, Ole Miss’s victory over Tulane, and road wins by Syracuse at Clemson and Michigan at Nebraska all significantly altered perceptions.

The 12-team playoff format – five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large bids – remains in place, with the top four teams earning first-round byes. Quarterfinals will be played at the New Year’s Six bowls, culminating in the national championship game on January 19th at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

Here’s a breakdown of ESPN’s projections from Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach:

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20 (Times and networks TBD)

* Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU
* Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
* Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
* Schlabach: No. 11 indiana at No. 6 Penn State
* Bonagura: No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Florida State
* Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Florida State
* Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Indiana
* Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown:

Bonagura: Indiana and Texas Tech are teams to watch after statement wins. Indiana’s path to the playoff, tho challenging with games against Oregon and Penn State, is manageable.Texas Tech has positioned itself as a Big 12 favorite.

Schlabach: Blowouts for illinois, Tulane and Utah have shaken up the bracket. Texas Tech’s investment in its roster is paying off, establishing them as a Big 12 frontrunner.Indiana’s dominant win over Illinois sends a message to the Big Ten. South Florida returns to the projection following a strong start to the season.

CFP Quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

Goodyear Cotton Bowl classic (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon
* Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU

Thursday, Jan. 1

Capital One Orange Bowl (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, florida, Noon, ESPN)

* Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. no. 4 Penn State
* Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Miami

Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California, 4 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No.9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio state
* Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, 8 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
* Schlabach: No. 6 penn State vs. No.3 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown:

Bonagura: A Georgia vs. Miami matchup would be compelling, featuring a clash between Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck and his former team.

Schlabach: Potential rematches between Florida State and Miami add intrigue. Ohio State and Texas Tech mirror each other with significant transfer portal acquisitions, while Oregon and LSU present a quarterback showdown between Garrett Nussmeier and Dante Moore. The Georgia-Penn State matchup is a rare collision, having only played once since 1982.

CFP Semifinals,National Championship Game

Thursday,Jan. 8

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (state Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
* Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Miami

Friday, Jan.9

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
* Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. no. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan.19

CFP National Championship (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, 7:45 p.m., ESPN)

* Bonagura: No.2 Oregon vs.No. 1 Ohio State
* Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National Championship breakdown:

Bonagura: Ohio state remains the favorite, facing a tough test at Washington. Oregon’s game against Penn State is crucial for positioning in the Big Ten.

Schlabach: The projections see all but one of the top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and anticipate a compelling Georgia-Miami matchup. Oregon and Ohio State could perhaps meet again in the Big Ten Championship game.

What factors could cause a shift in the current projected top four playoff teams?

The Top Tier: Championship Contenders

After a thrilling Week 4, the picture for the College Football Playoff is starting to clarify, though plenty of chaos still lies ahead.several teams have solidified their positions, while others face crucial tests in the coming weeks. Here’s a breakdown of the current projected playoff picture, factoring in strength of schedule, key wins, and potential pitfalls.

* Georgia Bulldogs (3-0): Still the team to beat.Dominant on both sides of the ball. Their SEC schedule will be the ultimate test. Projected to secure the #1 seed.

* Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0): Extraordinary offensive firepower. Need to maintain defensive consistency. Likely a #2 seed contender.

* Texas Longhorns (3-0): Quinn Ewers is looking sharp, and the defense is playing with intensity. A strong showing against the Big 12 will be vital. Projected as a #3 seed.

* Florida State Seminoles (3-0): A statement win against LSU has propelled them into the top four. Maintaining this momentum is key. Currently projected for the #4 seed.

Key Takeaway: The early season has shown us that experience and consistent performance matter. These four teams have demonstrated both.

The Next Level: Teams on the Bubble

These teams aren’t quite in the playoff yet, but they’re within striking distance. A few key wins could propel them into contention.

* Oregon Ducks (3-0): Bo Nix continues to impress. Their schedule is manageable, but they need to avoid any slip-ups.

* Washington Huskies (3-0): Michael Penix Jr.is a Heisman contender. A tough pac-12 schedule awaits.

* Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1): The loss to Texas stings, but don’t count them out. Nick Saban is still at the helm.They need to run the table.

* Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0): A solid team with a favorable schedule. They need to prove they can beat top-tier opponents.

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Conference Championship Implications

The path to the playoff frequently enough runs through winning your conference. Here’s a look at how each Power Five conference is shaping up:

1. SEC: Georgia is the clear favorite, but Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee will challenge.
2. Big Ten: Ohio State and Michigan are the frontrunners, with Penn State lurking.
3. Pac-12: Oregon and Washington are the teams to watch, but USC and Utah could make noise.
4. Big 12: Texas and Oklahoma are the early leaders, but Kansas State and TCU are contenders.
5. ACC: Florida State is currently in control, but Clemson and North Carolina could challenge.

Real-World Example: In 2022, TCU defied expectations and won the Big 12, earning a playoff berth. This demonstrates that conference champions aren’t always the preseason favorites.

Upset Potential & Dark Horse Candidates

College football is known for its upsets. Here are a few teams that could shake up the playoff picture:

* Oklahoma Sooners (2-1): A bounce-back win against Arkansas showed promise.

* Iowa hawkeyes (3-0): their defense is always stout, and they could steal a game against a top-ranked opponent.

* Kansas Jayhawks (3-0): Lance Leipold has built a competitive program.

* Louisville Cardinals (3-0): Jack Plummer is leading a potent offense.

Benefits of Tracking Upset Potential: Identifying potential upsets can give you an edge in college football betting and fantasy leagues.

Key Games to Watch – Week 5 & Beyond

These games will have critically important playoff implications:

* Alabama vs.Ole Miss (September 28th): A crucial SEC matchup.

* Ohio State vs. notre Dame (September 23rd): A non-conference clash between two playoff contenders.

* Washington vs. Oregon (October 14th): A potential Pac-12 Championship preview.

* Georgia vs. florida (November 2nd): A rivalry game with SEC east implications.

Practical Tip: Utilize a college football power index (like SP+, FPI, or BCF) to gain a deeper understanding of team strengths and weaknesses.

The Impact of Injuries

Injuries are an unavoidable part of college football. Key injuries can derail a team’s playoff hopes.

* Quinn Ewers (Texas): His health is paramount for the Longhorns’ success.

* Michael Penix Jr. (Washington): The Huskies’ offense relies heavily on his arm.

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