“This confinement works much better than the first economically. “ While traders, hotels, restaurants, culture or sport are very heavily affected, this sentence, pronounced Tuesday, November 17 by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, during an exchange with the press , echoes the note published the same day by INSEE. This document indicates that after “Astonishment” of the first confinement, “Adaptation” from the economy to health constraints makes it possible to greatly limit the impact of the second on the activity.
Taking into account the health unknowns that remain, the national statisticians have constructed three scenarios. In the most favorable, activity should return in December to its October level, ie 4% below its pre-crisis level. In the most unfavorable scenario, activity would remain in December at its level estimated for November, ie 13% below its pre-crisis level. This would result in a fall in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) of between -2.5% and -6% for this last quarter of the year. The slider for the recession still fluctuates between -9% and -10%, a figure slightly more optimistic than that used by Bercy, which is -11%.
“Some indicators show that 2020 could be better”, agreed the Minister, but in order to fix a hypothesis “Sincere, prudent and responsible”, this figure is not revised for the moment, he explained. This caution is “A pledge of confidence for entrepreneurs and all French people”.
“Less brutal” drop in consumption
This second confinement is reflected in particular by a drop in consumption “Less brutal” than in spring: while it had plunged by about 30% in April, it would only retreat by half as much this fall.
From one confinement to another, the French have indeed adopted new habits, underlines INSEE, while at the same time more and more businesses are adapting to this new situation. Online sales “Flew away” from the start of the reconfinement, while take-out sales make it possible to limit breakage in catering.
Sales of household equipment goods (leading electronics) saw a notable peak
All this, nevertheless specifies INSEE, is far from compensating for the losses in consumption linked to the closure of “non-essential” activities and businesses.
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