Deutsche Bank has recalculated deliveries of Covid-19 vaccines in Europe, due to delays announced by Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, and is still keeping its predictions of a herd immunization in summer, according to an advance report by Five days.
The bank explains that the growing dispute between the EU and AstraZeneca has created a relevant noise around distribution in Europe, which may reinforce the perception that the vaccination campaign is falling into chaos, something that the financial institution discards.
The entity estimates that AstraZeneca will deliver five million doses in February and 25 million in March, a figure that it could maintain for the rest of the year, on a conservative assumption. In turn, Deutsche Bank expects Pfizer to reach 50 million doses for Europe in the quarter, when its monthly shipments reach a rate of 25 million, something that will continue for the rest of 2021.
Regarding Moderna, it clarifies that it will distribute 15 million units per month during the year. Finally, if the single-dose version of Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is approved, which could begin to distribute in spring, in summer it will reach 20 million per month.
Altogether, by that estimate, the EU should receive at least 60 million doses in March, likely rising to more than 80 million in the summer thanks to J&J. These supplies would be enough to inoculate 100 million people in May, which would cover 20% of the population who are over 65 or are health professionals.
By extrapolating the data, herd immunization can be placed between August (60% of the population) and the end of September (70%).
“The numbers still suggest that vaccines will allow the EU to reopen and recovers in early summer. Warmer weather will also help, ”the report reflects.
These are the estimates with the vaccines available and those that will arrive soon. In Europe, those from Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna are already distributed, which in both cases will deliver less than expected due to initial problems in production. The AstraZeneca version will arrive in the coming weeks, once the European Commission gave the go-ahead to the product on Friday.
Similarly, Johnson & Johnson presented this Friday the results of its clinical studies, with an average efficacy of 66% in trials in different countries. It is expected that it will request authorization in the coming weeks, although Deutsche Bank is considering that its first doses will be commercialized in April.
There would still be the option of Novavax, which has also presented the efficacy data, with protection in 89% of cases and which could be distributed in this first semester.