Covid-19 Vaccines: Evaluating Safety and Effectiveness in the Netherlands

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COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Questioned in New Netherlands Analysis

The Hague – A thorough new analysis of mortality data in the Netherlands is casting fresh doubt on early projections regarding the severity of COVID-19 and the efficacy of vaccination campaigns. The report, compiled by Herman Steigstra and Anton Theunissen, suggests the initial estimates of the virus’s potential lethality were substantially overstated and that the benefits of vaccination may have been limited, overshadowed by an unexplained surge in overall mortality.

Initial Projections Far Off the Mark

When the SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged, organizations like the World Health Organization forecasted a grim scenario, with early estimates suggesting a case fatality rate as high as 3.4%, and some experts predicting up to 900,000 deaths within the Netherlands. Tho, the actual toll proved dramatically lower, with official figures reporting approximately 22,000 COVID-19 related deaths – just 12% of the initial worst-case scenario. Statistics Netherlands recorded over 51,000 deaths, but the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) was persistent to be far lower than anticipated, notably for those under 60 years of age.

COVID-19 Compared to Seasonal Flu

The study indicates that the impact of COVID-19 was, numerically, comparable to a severe seasonal influenza outbreak, such as the 2018 flu wave. A key distinction, however, lies in the method of reporting. While flu-related deaths typically focus on cases directly attributed to the influenza virus, COVID-19 statistics included all deaths where the virus played any role, leading to inflated numbers. Like the flu,COVID-19 often acted as a “last push” for individuals already suffering from underlying health conditions.

The “Last Push” Model and Timing Concerns

Researchers developed a model to account for this “last push” effect, estimating that COVID-19 advanced the time of death by an average of six months. This model aligned with observations from previous flu seasons. Critically, the vaccine rollout coincided with the natural decline of the first COVID-19 wave in early 2021, leading the authors to suggest the timing of vaccination was less impactful than initially believed.

Unexplained Excess Mortality Raises Concerns

Beginning in March 2021, coinciding with the start of mass vaccination, the netherlands experienced a sustained and unexplained increase in overall mortality. This “excess mortality” now stands at around 60,000 cases beyond what would be expected, representing an estimated 300,000 lost years of life.This phenomenon has persisted to date, prompting calls for further examination.

Metric	Initial Prediction (WHO/RIVM)	Actual Outcome (Netherlands)
Estimated Deaths	160,000 – 900,000	22,000 (RIVM) / 51,000+ (Statistics Netherlands)
Case Fatality Rate (CFR)	3.4% – 5%	~0.34% (November 2020)
Years of Life Lost (COVID-19)	N/A	~11,000
Years of Life Lost (Excess Mortality)	N/A	~300,000

Vaccine Effectiveness Under Scrutiny

The study found limited evidence of ample vaccine effectiveness.During the Delta wave in the fall of 2021, 75% of COVID-19 deaths occurred among vaccinated individuals, despite an 80% vaccination rate.In fact, more vaccinated people died during the Delta wave than had died during the first wave when no one was vaccinated, suggesting a vaccine effectiveness of only around 25%, preventing an estimated 1,500 deaths (750 years of life). This figure appears insufficient to offset the scale of the unexplained excess mortality.

Calls for Further Investigation

The authors emphasized the need for independent analysis to determine the

What percentage of the Netherlands population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 as of September 28, 2025?

Vaccine Rollout & Coverage in the Netherlands

The Netherlands implemented a comprehensive Covid-19 vaccination program beginning in January 2021, prioritizing vulnerable populations and healthcare workers. As of September 28, 2025, vaccine coverage stands at approximately 88% for the fully vaccinated population (two doses plus boosters where recommended), with ongoing booster campaigns targeting specific age groups and those with underlying health conditions. This data is sourced from the RIVM (National Institute for public Health and the Habitat) and continuously updated.Key vaccine types administered included Pfizer-biontech (Comirnaty), Moderna (Spikevax), AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria – use limited due to rare side effects), and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson).

Assessing Vaccine Effectiveness Against Variants

Initial vaccine effectiveness data demonstrated high protection against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and early variants like Alpha.However, the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants presented challenges.

* Delta Variant: While vaccines remained effective against severe illness, hospitalization, and death caused by the Delta variant, effectiveness against infection decreased. Booster doses significantly restored protection.

* Omicron Variant: Omicron’s high transmissibility and immune evasion capabilities further reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection. Though, updated mRNA vaccines (specifically targeting Omicron subvariants) have shown improved protection. The Netherlands has actively adapted its vaccination strategy to include these updated boosters.

* Current Variants (September 2025): Ongoing genomic surveillance identifies circulating variants. Current data suggests the dominant strains are descendants of Omicron, and updated vaccines continue to offer ample protection against severe outcomes.

monitoring Vaccine Safety: The Dutch Pharmacovigilance System

The Netherlands boasts a robust pharmacovigilance system managed by the Lareb (Netherlands center for Adverse Drug Reactions).This system actively monitors the safety of all medicines, including Covid-19 vaccines.

Reported Adverse Events

Commonly reported side effects following Covid-19 vaccination in the Netherlands include:

1. Pain at the injection site
2. Fatigue
3. Headache
4. Muscle aches
5. Fever

These are generally mild and resolve within a few days.

Rare but Serious Adverse Events

Lareb has also investigated reports of rare but serious adverse events, including:

* thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS): Primarily associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine, leading to restricted use.

* Myocarditis and Pericarditis: A very rare risk observed, particularly in young men, following mRNA vaccines.

* Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS): A rare neurological disorder, with a possible link to the Janssen vaccine.

It’s crucial to note that the benefits of Covid-19 vaccination significantly outweigh the risks of these rare adverse events. The RIVM continuously assesses the benefit-risk profile and provides updated guidance.

Real-World Effectiveness Studies in the Netherlands

Several studies conducted in the netherlands have provided valuable insights into real-world vaccine effectiveness:

* PHAROS Study: A large-scale observational study analyzing the impact of vaccination on hospitalizations and mortality. Results consistently demonstrate a notable reduction in severe outcomes among vaccinated individuals.

* GGD Monitoring: The municipal health services (GGDs) actively monitor infection rates and vaccination status within their regions,providing localized data on vaccine effectiveness.

* Academic Research: Dutch universities and research institutions contribute to ongoing studies evaluating long-term vaccine effectiveness and the impact of booster doses.

Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy & Misinformation

vaccine hesitancy remains a challenge in the Netherlands, fueled by misinformation and concerns about vaccine safety. The Dutch government and health organizations actively engage in public health campaigns to address these concerns and promote informed decision-making. Key strategies include:

* Transparent Communication: Providing clear and accessible information about vaccines, their benefits, and potential risks.

* Community Engagement: Working with local leaders and trusted community members to address concerns and build trust.

* Fact-Checking initiatives: Combating misinformation online and through social media.

Benefits of Continued Vaccination

Maintaining high vaccination rates is crucial for:

* Reducing the burden on the healthcare system.

* Protecting vulnerable populations.

* Preventing the emergence of new variants.

* Supporting a return to normalcy.

Practical Tips for Staying Informed

* RIVM Website: https://www.rivm.nl/en – The official source for information on Covid-19 and vaccination in the Netherlands.

* Lareb Website: https://www.lareb.nl/ – For information on adverse drug reactions.

* Consult Your Doctor: Discuss any concerns you have about vaccination with your healthcare provider.

* **Reli