Düsseldorf The Dax ran out of air in the last minute of trading on Monday. The leading German index closed 0.3 percent in the red at 13,291 points. In the meantime, the Frankfurt stock exchange barometer had been quoted at up to 13,445 points.
Despite the late price losses, the Dax achieved a historic: With a plus of 15 percent, the German leading index achieved the largest monthly gain in almost twelve years. In a November, things have never been so good for him in his more than 30-year history. The same applies to the Euro Stoxx 50, which won 18.1 percent.
The sustained high sentiment among investors even pushed the MDax and SDax to record highs. The two German small cap indices rose to 29,675 points and 13,933 points respectively. The latter gained 18.6 percent on a monthly basis, while the MDax gained 13.9 percent in the same period.
Investor sentiment signals that corrections will quickly peter out. According to the Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment, investors are still dominated by a high degree of optimism for the future and a high willingness to invest. Euphoria, the classic contra-indicator of sentiment analyzes, is not yet in sight.
Although there are increasing signs of a correction in the USA, the motto currently (still) applies in this country: Investors regard every setback as a buying opportunity, which should end a correction quickly and make a sell-off appear unlikely.
The goals for the optimists in the stock market are clear: First, the 13,460 mark has to be overcome. This is where the corona high lies, the highest level since the crash in mid-March, when the Dax slipped to 8255 points. The record high of 13,795 meters from February 2020 comes into focus. “All in all, a new all-time high above the 13,795 mark is increasingly likely,” say the technical analysts at the British bank HSBC in her morning commentary.
On Monday, the focus was on the chip values. Because the consolidation in the industry continues: The Munich chip supplier Siltronic is about to sell to Taiwan. The company is apparently on the verge of reaching an agreement with rival Globalwafers, which wants to offer a total of 3.75 billion euros for the MDax company.
Globalwafers is offering 125 euros per share, eleven percent more than the Friday closing price. The share rose accordingly by 7.6 percent to 122.20 euros. In addition, the shareholders are expected to receive a dividend of around two euros per share for 2020 – probably before the transaction is completed.
The major shareholder Wacker Chemie considers the conditions to be “attractive and appropriate” and is about to sell his shares. The Munich-based company would then receive almost 1.2 billion euros for the remaining shares in their former daughter, which they had brought to the stock exchange in 2015 and in which they currently hold 31 percent.
The Siltronic share price shot up by 14 percent last week. The plus in the past three months was around 45 percent at the closing level last Friday. Siltronics customers are to a large extent automotive suppliers who take care of the on-board electronics.
But the price development of the other German chip stocks is also impressive. The quotes from Infineon and the British-Swabian group Dialog Semiconductor rose by more than 25 percent in the past three months.
In complete contrast, the US chip values were like Intel, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices fell slightly in the past three months. However, these values had previously experienced a real bull market. Since the beginning of the year, the Nvidia share has risen by more than 125 percent.
Look at individual values
Modern: The US pharmaceutical company Modern wants to be the first company to apply for approval for a corona vaccine in the EU. The application for conditional approval should be submitted to the European Medicines Agency Ema on Monday, the company announced on the same day. The share rose by 16.91 percent on the German stock market, but was already clearly in the plus before the announcement.
The company also plans to apply to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency approval for its coronavirus vaccine. According to Moderna, new results have confirmed that the vaccine is more than 94 percent effective. According to Moderna, the vaccine’s effectiveness is consistent across age, race, and gender.
What: The sale of new shares caused the share price to fall. The title of the forklift manufacturer fell 7.1 percent to 64.44 euros. The company has set the subscription price for the new papers at 62 euros each.
Corestate: After the exit of several major shareholders and a reorganization of the supervisory board, Corestate’s shares went downhill. The real estate company’s papers fell 9.4 percent. However, they are still more than 30 percent above the level at the end of October.
BVB: After the 1: 2 defeat against 1. FC Köln, the shares slipped Borussia Dortmund (BVB) in the table cellar of the SDax. The Bundesliga soccer team lost 4.1 percent.
FC Schalke 04: In contrast to BVB, the football club is not listed on the stock exchange, but has issued a bond with a term until 2023. The corona pandemic has caused the risk and thus the yield of the Schalke bond to rise significantly. At the beginning of the year the price was 110 cents, the yield corresponding to 1.5 percent. Die-hard Schalke fans can currently achieve a return of 15.4 percent with the bond. Of course, only if the club does not have to file for bankruptcy, which is by no means excluded in view of the sporting downturn and the lack of spectators due to the corona pandemic.
Look at other asset classes
The decline in gold continues at the beginning of the new trading week. The price slipped this morning to $ 1,765 a troy ounce (31.1 grams), the lowest level since early July. The current price is $ 1,783.
According to the CommerzbankCommodity analysts once again clouded the technical picture due to the break in the important support at $ 1,800 on Friday, which should have prompted other short-term investors to exit.
Last week, gold lost 4.5 percent of its value, making it just past the worst weekly loss since March. The month of November, which ends today, is likely to close gold with the largest loss in four years.
The current weakness of gold is all the more remarkable because the dollar is also prone to weakness. The Commerzbank experts find it difficult to explain this sell-off with fundamental arguments. Confidence in gold has definitely suffered, which is reflected in continued outflows from the gold ETFs.
Bitcoin is more valuable than ever: On Monday, the price of the digital currency on the Bitstamp crypto exchange rose to $ 19,825. This surpassed the three-year-old record high from the end of 2017. At that time, Bitstamp hit a high of $ 19,666.
What the chart technique says
The Dax reached a new high on Monday at 13,445 points, but was unable to maintain this level. For another buy signal, the index would have to overcome the previous corona high of 13,460 points from September. This is the highest price since the Corona crash in mid-March, when the Dax slipped to 8255 points.
On the downside, the lows on November 19 and 13 at 13,035 and 13,005 are the limits. Slipping below these brands should lead to a breather.
For strategic investors, there is an upward gap from the beginning of the month as a stop-loss mark. Such gaps arise when the highest level on one trading day is below the lowest level on the following day.
Specifically: The highest level on Friday (November 6th) was 12,596 points, the lowest price on Monday (November 9th) was 12,671 points. As long as the Dax remains above 12,671 points, from a technical point of view there is no doubt about the current upward movement since the end of October, when the Dax stood at 11,450 points.