Decline in US Immigration: Numbers Questioned by PIIE Analysis

PIIE: A Cornerstone of Global Economic Research

Published: 2025-08-27

Washington D.C. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a highly respected and independent research body, plays a crucial role in shaping global economic understandings and policies. Established in 1967, PIIE distinguishes Itself as a non-profit, non-partisan association dedicated to providing rigorous analysis and practical recommendations on the world economy.

The Institute’s Core Mission

PIIE’s primary objective is to strengthen the international economic system. It accomplishes this through in-depth research, policy recommendations, and a commitment to promoting open dialog among policymakers, academics, and the public. The Institute’s work covers a broad spectrum of issues, including trade, finance, monetary policy, and global development.

A History of Influence

Over the decades, PIIE has consistently provided insights that have influenced policy debates and informed decision-making. from analyzing the implications of currency fluctuations to forecasting the impact of trade agreements, the Institute has established itself as a trusted source of expertise. Recent analysis has focused on the challenges posed by global supply chain disruptions and the rising threat of economic fragmentation.

Independent and Non-Partisan Research

A defining feature of PIIE is its independence. The Institute receives funding from a variety of sources, including foundations, corporations, and individuals, but maintains complete editorial control over its research. This independence ensures that its findings are objective and based solely on rigorous analysis. This commitment to non-partisanship is vital in an increasingly polarized world, allowing PIIE to offer unbiased assessments of complex economic issues.

Key Areas of Focus in 2025

Currently, PIIE researchers are heavily engaged in studying the implications of artificial intelligence on global labor markets, the future of the dollar’s dominance, and the economic consequences of geopolitical tensions. Below is a snapshot of the key areas PIIE is actively researching:

Area of Focus	Description
Global Trade	Analyzing trade policies, regional agreements, and the impact of trade barriers.
Financial Systems	Examining financial stability, monetary policy, and international capital flows.
Geopolitics & Economy	assessing the economic consequences of geopolitical events and conflicts.
Global Development	Researching strategies for enduring and inclusive economic growth in developing countries.

Did You Know? PIIE’s research frequently informs discussions at international forums like the G7 and G20 summits.

PIIE’s influence extends beyond academic circles. Its experts are regularly consulted by governments, international organizations, and the media, providing valuable insights that shape policy decisions and public understanding.The institute’s publications are widely read and cited, making it a central voice in the global economic discourse.

Pro Tip: Regularly check the PIIE website for the latest research papers, policy briefs, and event announcements to stay informed about the moast pressing economic issues.

What role do you believe independent economic research plays in effective policymaking? And how can organizations like PIIE adapt to the rapidly changing global economic landscape?

understanding Economic Think Tanks

Institutions like PIIE, often referred to as “think tanks,” are crucial for providing in-depth analysis and shaping public discourse on complex policy issues. They differ from governmental bodies in their independence and focus on long-term research rather than immediate political considerations. They often rely on a diverse funding model to maintain objectivity. The Brookings institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies are also prominent examples of influential think tanks operating in Washington, D.C.

Frequently Asked Questions about PIIE

• What is PIIE’s primary goal? PIIE aims to strengthen the international economic system through in-depth research and policy recommendations.
• Is PIIE a government-funded organization? No, PIIE is an independent non-profit organization funded by foundations, corporations, and individuals.
• What types of issues dose PIIE research? PIIE covers a wide range of issues, including trade, finance, monetary policy, and global development.
• How does PIIE remain non-partisan? PIIE maintains complete editorial control over its research, ensuring its findings are objective and unbiased.
• Where can I find PIIE’s research? PIIE’s publications are available on its official website, offering easy access to its latest analyses.

Share this article with your network! What are your thoughts on the Institute’s work? Let us know in the comments below.

How might methodological shifts in the Current Population Survey (CPS) affect the accuracy of reported US immigration trends?

Reported Immigration Declines: A Closer Look

Recent headlines have focused on a critically important decline in US immigration,sparking debate about its causes and consequences. Official government data initially suggested a considerable drop in the number of foreign-born residents. However, a new analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) challenges these figures, suggesting the decline may not be as dramatic as previously reported. Understanding the nuances of immigration trends requires a careful examination of data sources and methodologies.Terms like USA, US, and America are frequently enough used interchangeably, but as noted, “America” originally referred to the continent, now largely signifying the United States itself. This context is crucial when analyzing global migration patterns to America.

PIIE’s Methodology and Findings

The PIIE analysis,led by researchers Audrey Singer and Julia Gelatt,points to issues with the Current Population Survey (CPS) – the primary source for these immigration statistics. Their key findings include:

underreporting: The CPS relies on self-reporting, which can lead to undercounting, particularly among undocumented immigrants or those with limited English proficiency.

Methodological Shifts: Changes in the CPS questionnaire and data collection methods over time can introduce inconsistencies, making direct comparisons tough.

COVID-19 Impacts: While the pandemic undoubtedly impacted migration patterns, attributing the entire decline solely to COVID-19 might potentially be an oversimplification. Border closures, visa processing delays, and economic uncertainty all played a role.

Revised Estimates: PIIE’s analysis suggests that the actual decline in the foreign-born population between 2019 and 2022 was closer to 1.6 million, significantly lower than the 2.5 million initially reported.

This revised estimate still represents a decline, but it paints a different picture of the scale of the issue. It also highlights the importance of critically evaluating immigration statistics.

Factors Contributing to the Decline – Beyond COVID-19

While the pandemic acted as a catalyst, several pre-existing and ongoing factors contribute to the slowdown in US immigration:

Visa Backlogs: Significant backlogs in visa processing, exacerbated by the pandemic, continue to prevent manny individuals from entering the country legally. This impacts both family-based and employment-based visas.

Border Enforcement: Increased border security measures and stricter enforcement policies have made it more difficult for individuals to enter the US without authorization.

Economic Conditions: While the US economy remains relatively strong, economic uncertainty in other countries can influence migration decisions.

Changing Demographics: Shifts in birth rates and mortality rates in sending countries can also affect emigration patterns.

Political Climate: The political rhetoric surrounding immigration can deter potential immigrants, even those eligible for legal pathways.

Impact on the US Labor Market

The decline in immigration has significant implications for the US labor market. Several sectors, particularly those relying on low-wage workers, are experiencing labor shortages.

Agriculture: Farms and agricultural businesses are struggling to find enough workers to harvest crops.

Construction: The construction industry is facing delays and increased costs due to a lack of skilled labor.

Hospitality: Restaurants, hotels, and other hospitality businesses are operating with reduced capacity due to staffing shortages.

Healthcare: While not solely reliant on immigrant labor, the healthcare sector is also feeling the strain of workforce shortages.

These shortages are contributing to inflationary pressures and hindering economic growth. The debate around skilled immigration and its role in filling critical labor gaps is intensifying.

The Role of Different Visa Categories

Understanding the impact requires breaking down visa types:

H-1B Visas (Specialty Occupations): Demand for H-1B visas consistently exceeds the available quota, indicating a strong need for skilled workers in fields like technology and engineering.

Family-Based Visas: These visas allow US citizens and lawful permanent residents to sponsor family members for immigration. Backlogs in this category are particularly severe, leading to long waiting times.

Employment-Based Visas (Other Workers): These visas are for workers with specific skills or qualifications that are in demand in the US labor market.

* Temporary Protected Status (TPS): This status provides temporary relief from deportation to individuals from countries experiencing armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary conditions. Changes to TPS designations can significantly impact the number of immigrants in the US.

Policy Implications and Future Outlook

The PIIE analysis underscores the need for a more