Mexico City – Despite a renewed focus on immigration enforcement under the current administration, data reveals a surprising trend: more Mexicans were deported annually under President Biden than during the second term of his predecessor. This finding, based on analysis of Mexican government data, challenges simple narratives about shifting border policies and highlights the complex factors driving migration from Mexico.
The analysis indicates that deportations of Mexican citizens reached nearly 300,000 per year under the Biden administration. Since President Trump resumed office in January 2025, approximately 144,000 Mexicans have been deported back to their homeland as of the end of 2025, according to data compiled by the Mexican government. This suggests a decrease in the sheer number of deportations, but too points to a shift in the dynamics of migration and enforcement.
Cartel Violence Fuels Migration
While overall numbers are down, the reasons behind the decrease are multifaceted. Fewer attempted border crossings, attributed to increased border security measures implemented by the current administration, contribute to the lower deportation figures. However, a deeper look at the data reveals a concerning trend: a growing proportion of deported Mexicans are fleeing escalating violence in their home states. The states of origin for deported Mexicans have shifted, with a notable increase in individuals coming from regions plagued by cartel activity.
The state of Chiapas, bordering Guatemala and Mexico’s southernmost region, saw the highest number of deported citizens with 12,786 individuals returned in 2025. This represents a significant change from past trends, where migrants typically originated from central Mexico. The journey from Chiapas to the U.S.-California border spans roughly 2,000 miles. The rise in deportations from Chiapas is linked to the increasing presence and violent battles between cartels vying for control of lucrative drug trafficking and migrant smuggling routes.
The Jalisco Recent Generation cartel, originating in the western state of Jalisco, has expanded its operations into Chiapas, engaging in fierce territorial disputes and escalating extortion of local communities. Similar patterns are observed in the states of Guanajuato (11,552 deportees) and Guerrero (11,044 deportees), where the Jalisco New Generation cartel’s dominance is driving displacement and migration. In Guerrero, cartels have even resorted to using drone bombs to target rivals, military convoys, and intimidate villagers, with one reported incident involving over 100 bombs dropped on a single community in a 24-hour period in 2024, according to a former cartel operative.
Economic Hardship and Regional Disparities
Beyond cartel violence, economic hardship continues to be a major driver of migration. The southern state of Oaxaca, where 16% of the population lives in extreme poverty according to government data, accounted for 9,133 deportees. For generations, residents of Oaxaca have sought economic opportunities in the United States to support their families. The combination of limited economic prospects and escalating violence creates a desperate situation for many Mexicans, pushing them to attempt the dangerous journey north.
This trend – more Mexicans deported annually under the Biden administration than under the second Trump administration – is mirrored in broader deportation statistics. An analysis of federal U.S. Data by The New York Times shows that the current administration deported approximately 540,000 people in 2025, a decrease of 50,000 from 2023 and 110,000 from 2024.
The changing demographics of deported Mexicans, coupled with the overall decline in deportations, suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing migration patterns. While border security measures may be reducing the number of successful crossings, the underlying drivers of migration – violence, poverty, and lack of opportunity – remain potent forces. The situation demands a nuanced approach that addresses both border enforcement and the root causes of migration in Mexico.
Looking ahead, continued monitoring of deportation trends and a deeper understanding of the conditions driving migration from specific regions of Mexico will be crucial. Further investigation into the impact of cartel violence on displacement and migration patterns is also needed. The evolving dynamics at the border require ongoing analysis and informed policy responses.
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