Despite the crisis, Macron records a resurgence in popularity

Political objective fulfilled. Four months after the appointment of Jean Castex to Matignon, the supporters of the Head of State are pleased that the maneuver has fulfilled its main objective: to allow Emmanuel Macron to appear as the real boss within the executive couple. While Edouard Philippe was ahead of him in the polls, the President of the Republic reversed the situation. Now, his popularity curve is increasing as that of the head of government decreases. Since the start of the school year, Mr. Macron has recorded an increase of five points, while Mr. Castex has lost as much, according to a study published on November 17 by the Odoxa institute, giving the first 43% of favorable opinions, and the second at 35%. Same reverse movement in a recent Elabe poll.

After having suffered a heavy drop at the end of 2018 during the “yellow vests” crisis, then having relapsed a year later, during the conflict on pension reform, the confidence rating of the Head of State started to rise again. these last weeks. It is now in a range between 35% and 40%, depending on the institutes. At Ipsos, it stands at 38%, after a gain of eight points since March. “The rating of Emmanuel Macron is stable, at a high level”, summarizes Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of this institute.

If his management of the health crisis remains unpopular, the Head of State nevertheless manages to attract the indulgence of part of the public, because of the comparison with foreign countries and the weakness of the opposition. “When they see the situation with our neighbors, many French people realize that there is neither Plan B nor miracle recipe. They tell themselves that Macron is doing what he can. And, in the end, no one else in the opposition would do better ”, underlines Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion department at IFOP. Same observation with Mr. Teinturier. In his eyes, Mr. Macron mainly takes advantage of “Comparative credibility with the opposition”. As a default support, in short, for a president who “Strives to protect the population, both in terms of health and economics”, believes Mr. Teinturier, at a time when the oppositions are reduced to criticism.

“Flag effect”

Paradoxically, the triple crisis (health, economic, security) facing Mr. Macron does not affect the basis of his support. The approval of its action has, for example, jumped by eight points, in early November, in a recent IFOP poll, following the announcement of the re-containment and the terrorist attacks in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine (Yvelines) and in Nice. . “In a period of major crises, the Head of State benefits from a” flag effect “, with a tightening of the national community around his figure”, observes Frédéric Dabi, Deputy Director General of the FIFG. “As the situation is perceived as very difficult to manage, this generates a reflex of empathy with regard to power in a part of the electorate”, abounds the president of Elabe, Bernard Sananès.

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