Dollar would continue with downward pressure in December. How would you close the year? | YOUR MONEY

The US currency fell from S/ 3,987 to S/ 3,857 in November, after two consecutive months of gains, according to data from the Central Reserve Bank () and in line with what analysts projected to Gestión.

This implies a 3% decrease in the eleventh month of the year, and even in the third week of November it reached S/ 3.81.

The market has been assimilating that there will be a slowdown in the rise in the reference interest rate of the Federal Reserve (USA), to which is added a more optimistic outlook due to the easing of some restrictions in China in the face of the pandemic , said Fabiola Gutiérrez, a foreign exchange trader at

Thus, the foreign currency would continue to weaken in the last month of the year, oscillating in the range of S/ 3.80 and S/ 3.90, once Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, reaffirms the lower rate of increase in US rates. ., Project.

In November there was a significant reduction in the since investors internalized, in addition to less aggressiveness in the Fed’s rate hike sequence, an improvement in US economic data, commented a source from the foreign exchange market who preferred anonymity.

“In this base scenario, where international factors continue like this, and the confrontation between Congress and the Executive does not show an outcome, but only lengthens the period of uncertainty, the dollar would operate closer to a floor of S/ 3.80 at the end of 2022 ″, he estimated.

Hiccup before a presidential vacancy

The specialist maintained that in a local scenario of presidential vacancy or removal, the green ticket would register a hiccup at levels between S/ 3.90 and S/ 3.99.

Although it would be a very short-term effect, since then it would resume its downward trend towards S/ 3.80, he added.

An analysis of currency flows shows that in the first weeks of November the supply came mainly from foreigners and the BCR; while the demand was from corporations and, to a lesser extent, from the AFPs, the specialists detailed.

The dollar accumulates a depreciation of 3.48% against the sol so far this year, after ending at S/ 3.99 in 2021.

READ ALSO Financial investments in dollars lose 10 times more than in soles

BVL would close the year in blue

The General Index of the Lima Stock Exchange () advanced 4.5% in November, chaining a third upward month.

Investors are anticipating an economic slowdown, as well as inflation that will begin to decline and less of a global logistical problem, said Eduardo Leciñana, wealth manager at .

Likewise, the Fed would begin to reduce the rate of increases in its key rate (reporting increases of 50 points and not 75 points as it has been doing), he said.

According to the analyst, this would allow the BVL to continue its upward streak at the end of the year, hand in hand with a better performance on the New York Stock Exchange.

“However, this evolution is affected by risk drivers, such as political noise, which hinders the sustained recovery that the local market has been registering,” he warned.

READ ALSO BBVA: “This is a super good time to invest in the stock market, but to earn in more than a year”

Mining companies lead stock market recovery

For his part, Marco Contreras, head of research at He argued that volatility will continue to be present in the BVL, which is why it is difficult to project a trend for the index towards the end of the year.

The local stock market could maintain its current level in December or show slight monthly growth, as there are still external factors to monitor in recent weeks, he added.

He indicated that mining shares led the recovery of the Lima market in November, with a growth of 15%, being the ones with the greatest weight in the benchmark index. This was supported by a general rebound in the price of metals, he added.

  • 62% win shares of electric companies in the year, according to the BVL.

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