Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally nudged higher on Wednesday, extending a rebound but closing well off session lows. Tesla stock was a big winner while Apple chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is about to report earnings.
Consumer inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, hitting a fresh 39-year high of 7%. But investors appeared relieved that the December inflation report wasn’t even worse. Meanwhile, crude oil and copper prices continued to rally, with energy, mining and other commodity-related stocks rallying.
Still, the major indexes backed off morning highs, with the Nasdaq hitting resistance after rebounding since Monday afternoon. Applied Materials (AMAT) rebounded bullishly from its 50-day line while Mosaic (MOS) broke out past a buy point. Tesla (TSLA) was among Wednesday’s big movers, reclaiming key support, but is not yet actionable.
KB Home earnings beat views. Sales came in a little light, but the homebuilder gave bullish guidance on revenue, selling prices and profit margins. KBH stock, which was a laggard when rivals were breaking out, rose solidly overnight, signaling moves above the 50-day and 200-day lines.
DAL stock fell 1.5% on Wednesday. Shares have been rallying for the past several weeks but are well off 2021 highs, along with other airline stocks. But Delta earnings will not only be important for other airlines, but for hotels and online travel sites that are performing better.
Taiwan Semiconductor stock rose 2.6% to 132.51 on Wednesday. TSM stock now has an 11-month cup-with-handle base with a 135.60 buy point. As a chip contractor, Taiwan Semi makes chips for Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and many other fabless chipmakers. Its capital spending forecast will be important for chip-equipment makers such as Applied Materials.
Apple stock edged up 0.3%, still actionable from its 10-week line. Nvidia stock climbed 0.65%, still below its 50-day line after last week’s sell-off.
The video embedded in this article discusses Wednesday’s market action and analyzes AMAT, Mosaic and TSM stock.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures lost 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures slid 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%.
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally closed well off morning highs, but the major indexes closed positive.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 sank 0.7%.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 2 basis points to 1.725%, continuing to retreat from Monday’s 23-month intraday peak of 1.81%. Crude oil prices climbed 1.8% to $82.64 per barrel, while natural gas shot up more than 10%. Copper prices climbed about 3%.
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 1%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) advanced 0.8%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dipped 0.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 0.85%. TSM stock, Nvidia and AMAT are major SMH components.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rallied 2.3% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) edged up 0.5%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) retreated 0.9%, with DAL stock a notable JETS holding. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) closed just below break-even. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) edged up 0.2% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) nudged 0.1% higher. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) dipped 0.3%.
AMAT stock popped 4.7% to 159.55, rebounding bullishly from its 50-day line and breaking a very short trend line entry. It’s actionable now. Applied Materials stock also is back above a prior buy point of 159.10, though it’s technically no longer valid.
Tesla stock climbed 3.9% to 1,106.22, convincingly reclaiming its 50-day line. From Monday’s lows, TSLA stock has rebounded more than 125 points. The 50-day line often offers an early entry, but the EV giant is trying to go straight up after plunging from its Jan. 4 intraday high. For now, Tesla stock remains actionable just above the 1,200 level. Ideally, shares would pause just below or around 1,200 before breaking out.
Market Rally Analysis
The stock market rally continued to rebound Wednesday but definitely backed off early highs.
The Nasdaq composite, up more than 1% intraday, pulled back after hitting its 10-day line and nearly reaching its 21-day moving average. It’s still below its 50-day line. The Dow Jones and S&P 500, above their 21-day and 50-day lines, also ran into resistance at their 10-day lines.
The Russell 2000 also reversed from short-term moving averages. But the small-cap index also closed lower.
The market rally was due for a bounce at Monday’s lows. Well, we got it. But it’s still unclear if that bounce has real legs. Can the Nasdaq reclaim its 50-day line and its year-end levels? Can the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit new highs? Or will the market rally falter yet again?
We don’t have to have an answer right away. A short pause in the major indexes could be constructive. It would be unusual for stocks to race straight up. A little sideways action would let stocks repair themselves, while leaders could stand out.
Energy stocks remain strong, though Wednesday’s gains were tame given the big moves in crude oil and natural gas. Financials are looking good. Investors may want to wait for Friday’s earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) before making substantial new bets on bank stocks.
What To Do Now
The market direction may be the most important part of CAN SLIM. You can find top stocks with great fundamentals, but if the market goes south, those leaders will likely falter too. If the market is generally trending higher, most stocks will rise.
If you buy Nvidia stock, Tesla stock or Microsoft (MSFT) right now, you’re not only betting on those stocks too early, you’re betting the market will show strength. But instead of trying to predict where the market will go, pay attention to what the market is doing now. While it’s still a stock market rally, it’s under pressure with the market direction in flux.
Complicating matters is that while most growth stocks are struggling, commodity-related stocks and financials are not.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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