The Shrinking Lifeline: How Global Funding Cuts Are Forcing Refugees Back Into Harm’s Way
Uganda, Africa’s largest refugee-hosting nation with nearly 1.8 million displaced people, is facing a crisis. It’s not a new influx of refugees that’s the problem, but a dwindling stream of aid, forcing families into impossible choices: return to war-torn homelands, or face starvation in increasingly overcrowded camps. The story of Lindiro Jane, a South Sudanese refugee forced to flee violence twice, is becoming tragically commonplace, and signals a broader, deeply concerning shift in the global response to displacement.
The Erosion of International Support
For years, Uganda’s open-door policy towards refugees, particularly those fleeing conflict in South Sudan and now Sudan, has been lauded as a model for humanitarian response. But this model is fracturing. Funding from key donors like the United States, the United Kingdom, and the World Food Programme (WFP) is plummeting. The US, historically a major contributor through USAID, saw significant cuts beginning in 2024, providing just $11 million to Uganda, a fraction of the $83 million given since the start of fiscal year 2023. The UK has announced further reductions, scaling back aid spending to just 0.3% of its gross national income by 2027.
These cuts aren’t abstract numbers; they translate directly into slashed rations. Refugees who once received $9 per person per month now struggle to survive on as little as $2, and even that meager amount is threatened. The WFP is prioritizing aid, supporting only the most vulnerable, leaving almost one million refugees cut off from essential assistance. Malnutrition rates are soaring, already exceeding emergency thresholds, with nine children under five reported to have died from malnutrition since January. Health centers are closing, and vital staff are being laid off.
The Cycle of Displacement and Desperation
The reduction in aid is creating a dangerous cycle. As conditions in refugee settlements deteriorate, some are pressured – or actively encouraged – to return home. Since the 2018 peace deal in South Sudan, over 390,000 refugees have repatriated, but the promise of peace has largely failed to materialize. Returnees often find themselves facing ongoing tribal violence, a stalled peace process, and a complete lack of basic services. Lindiro Jane’s experience – returning to a farm only to witness horrific violence and flee back to the camps – is a stark illustration of this reality.
This isn’t limited to South Sudan. The escalating civil war in Sudan is driving a sixfold increase in cross-border movements, overwhelming Uganda’s already strained capacity. Reception centers are operating at six times their intended capacity, and the influx shows no sign of slowing. The UNHCR reports that food rations are a primary driver for refugees choosing to return, even to dangerous situations.
The Limits of Self-Reliance
The Ugandan government is attempting to promote refugee self-reliance through initiatives like subsidized land rental for farming. While laudable in principle, this approach faces significant hurdles. Land disputes with host communities, high rental costs (ranging from $28 to $42 per planting season), and limited financial resources make it inaccessible for many. As Lindiro Jane notes, “It’s very expensive to rent land here.” The idea of self-sufficiency rings hollow when basic survival is a daily struggle.
Looking Ahead: A Looming Humanitarian Crisis
The current trajectory is unsustainable. Without a significant reversal in funding trends, the situation in Uganda – and across East Africa – will likely deteriorate further. Researchers like Yotam Gidron at the University of Oxford warn that continued cuts will force even more refugees to return home, exacerbating instability and potentially triggering new waves of violence. Maintaining humanitarian aid isn’t simply an act of compassion; it’s a crucial component of regional security.
The crisis also highlights the need for innovative solutions. Traditional donor models are clearly failing to keep pace with the growing scale of displacement. Exploring alternative funding mechanisms, such as increased private sector involvement, diaspora contributions, and more equitable burden-sharing among nations, is essential. Furthermore, addressing the root causes of conflict in countries like South Sudan and Sudan is paramount to preventing future displacement.
The story of Lindiro Jane and countless others is a stark reminder that the global refugee crisis is not just a humanitarian issue, but a test of our collective responsibility. Ignoring this crisis will not make it disappear; it will only amplify the suffering and instability that threaten us all. What are your predictions for the future of refugee aid and the challenges facing host countries like Uganda? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
