Electricity Prices Set to Decline in September 2025: A Detailed Analysis

Par
Matias Perea

Energy analyst

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This Monday, September 29, 2025, the wholesale price of electricity on the EPEX Spot market is up, establishing itself at 58,00 €/MWh. The price for tomorrow, Tuesday, will be published around 1:30 p.m. On the side market side, contracts for the coming years have a mixed trend compared to last week.

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Electricity price on the EPEX / Spot market this Monday, September 29, 2025

Today, Monday September 29, 2025, the electricity spot price is established in 58,00 €/MWh. Finally, the annual comparison reveals an evolution of +11,5% Compared to the same period last year, when the price reached € 52.00/MWh.

Data for tomorrow, Tuesday September 30, 2025, will be published by the markets around 1:30 p.m.

Spot price analysis, hour by hour

For the day of September 29, 2025the price of Spot electricity has reached its highest 20h with 133,26 €/MWh and its lower to 14hhas 21,99 €/MWh.

Evolution of the electricity spot price over the last 30 days

Over the past 30 days, the electricity spot price has increased by 61,1 %. The peak during this period was recorded on September 26, 2025with a price of 87,00 €/MWh. Conversely, the lowest point was observed the September 15, 2025where the price came down to 3,00 €/MWh.

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Evolution of the average spot price per month

For the month of September 2025the average electricity price is currently established in 34,00 €/MWh. This represents a drop in 37,0 % compared to August. Over the past 12 full months, the peak has been observed in February 2025 with an average of 122,00 €/MWhwhile the most affordable month was May 2025 (19,00 €/MWh).

Spot prize in Europe today, September 29, 2025

With a spot price of 58,00 €/MWhFrance ranks at 11th row of the most expensive markets in Europe Out of a total of 52. On a continental scale, the lowest price is observed on the market JP (5,00 €/MWh), while the highest price is on the market Romania (142,00 €/MWh).

Spot price in Europe on 09/29/2025

Negative electricity price today Monday, September 29, 2025

With the rise of renewable energies, in particular solar and wind, France is increasingly experiencing periods when electricity production exceeds consumption. Result: prices on the SPOT market become negative, meaning that producers pay to sell their energy.

Far from being anecdotal, this trend accelerates. Since the beginning of 2025, we have already accumulated 493 hours of negative or zero prices. This represents an explosion of 45% compared to the same period in 2024.

This Monday, September 29, 2025, no time with negative or zero prices is to be reported on the network.

In the long term, the increase in the number of hours at negative prices is also notable. In France, for the year 2025we count for the moment 493 hours where the price of electricity on the spot market has been negative or zero.

To limit these episodes, it is necessary to adapt consumption to periods of high production, for example by recharging your electric vehicle or by launching its household appliances when electricity is abundant and inexpensive, even free.

Analysis of trends in 2025

This year, the month most affected by negative prices has been May 2025with a total of 133 hours. It is an absolute record since the start of the surveys.

Monthly evolution of hours at negative prices

All seasons combined, it is generally in the middle of the that the phenomenon is the most marked. The hour of 14h is statistically the most likely to present negative prices. On her own, she concentrates almost 17% of all negative hours recorded.

Cumulative number of hours

By analyzing by season, we observe nuances: in Low season (from April 1 to October 31), the peak is located in 14hat the heart of solar production. In High season (from November 1 to March 31), where demand is stronger, the phenomenon is rarer but is mainly concentrated in 4h.

Cumulative number of hours

Price of term contracts (CAL) to Monday September 29, 2025

The Calendar contract (CAL) is used on the markets to buy electricity which will be delivered in the following years at a price fixed in advance. It allows companies to protect themselves from price volatility. Here is the state of the main annual contracts dated 26/09/2025.

Price of electrical term contracts (CAL)

Due date	Prix Peak (€/MWh)	Prix Base (€/MWh)
CAL 2026	64,50	57,35
CAL 2027	68,04	57,92
CAL 2028	72,89	61,56

Source: EXE – wholesale electricity markets. The changes in parentheses are calculated compared to 09/22/2025.

Cal27: What is the price of an MWh of electricity for delivery in 2027?

For delivery in 2027, the Cal27 PEAK contract presents a price of 68,04 €/MWhwhile its basic version 57,92 €/MWh.

Cal26: What is the price of an MWh of electricity for delivery in 2026?

For delivery in 2026, the Cal26 PEAK contract has a price of 64,50 €/MWhwhile its basic version 57,35 €/MWh.

CAL28: What is the price of an MWh of electricity for delivery in 2028?

For delivery in 2028, the Cal28 PEAK contract has a price of 72,89 €/MWhwhile its basic version 61,56 €/MWh.

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The time offer at -20 % (HT) compared to the regulated rate

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Electricity price in France Monday September 29, 2025

The price of reference electricity in France is the regulated price of EDF. Here are the prices applicable today Monday, September 29, 2025:

Electricity price for individuals (regulated rate – EDF)

• Base option of KWH option: 0,1952 €
• KWH price in full hours: 0,2081 €
• KWH price in off -peak hours: 0,1635 €
• Total amount of the invoice*: 113,08 € per month

Most competitive electricity price (fixed offer -20% – primeo)

• Base option of KWH option: 0,1634 €
• KWH price in full hours: 0,1736 €
• KWH price in off -peak hours: 0,1380 €
• Total amount of the invoice*: 97,17 € per month

Suppliers with the price of the cheapest electricity kWh

Suppliers with the price of the most expensive electricity

*Amount calculated on Monday September 29, 2025 for a consumption of 6000 kWh for an optional 6 kVA counter.

Cheapest electricity offers on Monday, September 29, 2025

The Primeo supplier Now offers the cheapest offer on the market. The price per kWh of Its fixed offer -20% is 0,1634 €/kWh Base optional, 0,1736 € in full hours and 0,1380 € in off -peak hours.

In total, for an annual consumption of 6000 kWh, it is possible toSave € 191 on the bill Compared to the regulated price of EDF.

This offer, Available throughout metropolitan Francepropose A 20 % discount On the reference rate, a Guaranteed fixed rate During a defined contractual period and an electricity supply with monitoring of online consumption to better control your uses.

Here is a small calculator to calculate your budget with Primeo at Monday September 29, 2025:

My electricity bill with the fixed offer -20% primeo

Fixed offer -20%

97
€/month
or 1166 €/year incl.

€ 191 saved per year^*

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Non-inclusive green electricity

Offer with blocked prices

Display the details

Hide the details

Subscription price:

186 €/an

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Total :

1166 €/an (97 €/month)

Savings^* :

191 €/an

• Non -binding offer
• Free termination
• No cut

Online

*: savings / additional costs compared to the regulated rate

Price of the fixed offer -20% verified on 01/09/2025

Here is the price of 5 cheapest electricity offers on Monday September 29, 2025:

Prices € TTC. Simulations made for domestic consumption of 6000 kWh per year and a power of 6 kVA in Lyon. Learn more about our Selectra Score.

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The time offer at -20 % (HT) compared to the regulated rate

A cheaper fixed price offer

EDF electricity price on Monday September 29, 2025

Chez Historical supplier EDFthe price of electricity is today Monday September 29, 2025 higher than most alternative suppliers. With the blue rate (regulated rate), the price per kWh of electricity is today to 0,1952 € Base optional, 0,2081 € in full hours and 0,1635 € in off -peak hours.

Beyond the regulated rate, EDF also offers other market offers. On Monday September 29, 2025, the most interesting offer of EDF is Zen Online with a price per kWh of 0,1856 € Base option, 4.9% cheaper than EDF’s blue rate. In full hours, the price per kWh is 0,1977 € et 0,1559 € in off -peak hours. In total, for a consumption of 6000 kWh, this represents € 58 savings per year Compared to the blue rate.

This offer, Available throughout metropolitan Franceis a 100% online offer with digital management of the contract. She offers a price per kWh reduced by 6% HT compared to the regulated rate without a commitment of duration. The subscription is at the same price as the regulated rate, with electronic invoicing and direct debit.

More details in the table below:

Price TTC. Simulations carried out for domestic consumption of 6000 kWh per year and an optional 6 kVA power. Learn more about our Selectra Score.

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The time offer at -20 % (HT) compared to the regulated rate

A cheaper fixed price offer

What specific renewable energy projects contributed most to the 17% increase in renewable energy generation cited by the EIA?

Factors Driving the September 2025 Price Drop

After a period of volatility and, for many, escalating costs, electricity prices are poised for a noticeable decline throughout September 2025. Several converging factors are contributing to this positive trend, offering relief to both residential and commercial energy consumers. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for budgeting and making informed energy choices. Key drivers include:

* Increased Renewable Energy Generation: Solar and wind power output have reached record highs this month, considerably reducing reliance on more expensive fossil fuel sources. Data from the Energy Facts Management (EIA) shows a 17% increase in renewable energy contribution to the national grid compared to September 2024.

* Natural Gas Inventory Levels: Natural gas storage levels are currently 8% above the five-year average, easing concerns about supply shortages during peak demand periods.This surplus is directly impacting wholesale electricity prices, as natural gas remains a primary fuel source for power generation.

* Decreased Demand: Cooler-then-average temperatures across much of the country have led to reduced air conditioning usage, lowering overall electricity demand.This seasonal shift is a predictable, yet significant, contributor to price reductions.

* Grid Modernization efforts: Ongoing investments in grid infrastructure, including smart grids and improved transmission lines, are enhancing efficiency and reducing energy losses. These improvements translate to lower costs for consumers.

Regional Variations in Electricity Price Declines

While a nationwide decline is expected, the extent of the price reduction will vary by region. Several factors contribute to these differences:

* northeast: States heavily reliant on natural gas for heating may see a more moderate decline due to anticipated increased demand as winter approaches.Expect a price decrease of approximately 5-8%.

* Southeast: Regions with considerable solar energy capacity are experiencing the most significant price drops, with some areas reporting decreases of up to 12%.

* Midwest: A combination of wind energy production and stable natural gas supplies is driving price reductions of 7-10% in the Midwest.

* West: California, despite its renewable energy leadership, faces ongoing challenges with grid reliability and transmission capacity, potentially limiting price declines to around 4-6%.

* Texas: The ERCOT grid, known for its self-reliant operation, is seeing a 9-11% decrease in wholesale prices, largely due to increased wind and solar generation.

Impact on Different Consumer Groups

The declining electricity prices will have varying impacts on different consumer segments:

* Residential Customers: Homeowners and renters can expect to see lower electricity bills in the coming months.this provides much-needed financial relief, particularly for low-income households.

* Small Businesses: Reduced energy costs will improve profitability for small businesses,allowing them to reinvest in growth and create jobs.

* Large Industrial Consumers: Energy-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and data centers, will benefit significantly from lower electricity prices, enhancing their competitiveness.

* Renewable Energy Developers: While lower electricity prices may slightly reduce the immediate financial incentives for new renewable energy projects, the long-term trend towards cleaner energy sources remains strong.

Understanding Time-of-Use (TOU) Rates & Demand Response Programs

To maximize savings during this period of declining prices, consumers should consider optimizing their energy usage.

* Time-of-Use Rates: Many utilities offer TOU rates,which charge different prices for electricity depending on the time of day. Shifting energy-intensive activities (laundry, dishwashing, EV charging) to off-peak hours can significantly reduce costs.

* Demand Response Programs: These programs incentivize consumers to reduce their electricity usage during peak demand periods. Participating in demand response programs can earn you credits on your bill.

* Energy Audits: Conducting a home energy audit can identify areas where you can improve energy efficiency and reduce consumption.

Case Study: The Impact of Wind Energy in Iowa

Iowa serves as a compelling case study for the benefits of renewable energy. The state consistently leads the nation in wind energy generation, accounting for over 60% of its electricity supply. This reliance on wind power has resulted in consistently lower electricity prices for Iowans compared to the national average. In September 2025,Iowa is projected to see some of the largest price declines in the country,demonstrating the economic advantages of investing in renewable energy infrastructure.

Long-Term Outlook: Sustaining Lower Prices

While the September 2025 price decline is a welcome advancement, sustaining lower electricity prices in the long term requires continued investment in:

* Renewable Energy Infrastructure: Expanding solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources is crucial for reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets.

* Energy Storage Solutions: Battery storage and other energy storage technologies are essential for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid.

* Grid Modernization: Upgrading grid infrastructure to improve efficiency, reliability, and resilience is paramount.

* Energy Efficiency Programs: Promoting energy efficiency through incentives and education can reduce overall demand and lower costs.

Keywords: electricity prices, energy prices, renewable energy, natural gas, energy costs, September 2025, energy decline,