Türkiye’s Tightrope Walk: Navigating a Shifting Global Order
The world is witnessing a recalibration of power, and few nations are navigating this shift more strategically – and ambiguously – than Türkiye. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara has embarked on a course of increased international assertiveness, simultaneously deepening ties with traditional adversaries while maintaining its crucial role within the NATO alliance. But how sustainable is this balancing act, and what does it mean for the future of regional stability and the broader geopolitical landscape?
For decades, Türkiye has been a cornerstone of Western security architecture, joining NATO in 1952 in the wake of World War II and the burgeoning Cold War. This alignment, despite internal political upheavals and military coups, positioned Türkiye as a bulwark against Soviet expansion. However, the post-Cold War era has seen a gradual divergence in strategic interests, a trend accelerated under Erdoğan’s leadership. As Ariel González Levaggi, director of the Center for International Studies at the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, points out, Erdoğan seeks to project greater Turkish influence internationally, even if it means charting a course that occasionally deviates from Western expectations.
The Russia Conundrum: Energy, Pipelines, and Regional Influence
Perhaps the most striking example of this divergence is Türkiye’s complex relationship with Russia. Despite being a NATO member, Türkiye relies heavily on Russia for energy supplies, with Russia being its primary natural gas provider. This dependence extends beyond energy, encompassing crucial crude oil imports and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant – a project spearheaded by Rosatom. Furthermore, Russian gas pipelines traverse Turkish territory, offering Moscow a strategic advantage in circumventing European energy markets.
“Türkiye’s relationship with Russia is fundamentally pragmatic,” explains González Levaggi. “It’s driven by economic necessity and a desire to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy. Ankara understands the risks of over-reliance on Russia, but it also recognizes the benefits of maintaining open channels of communication and cooperation.”
However, this economic interdependence doesn’t preclude tensions. Türkiye actively supports Azerbaijan, a move that directly challenges Russian influence in the Caucasus. The ongoing war in Ukraine presents another layer of complexity. While officially condemning the invasion, Türkiye has refrained from joining Western sanctions, maintaining trade ties with both Russia and Ukraine. This position, while criticized by some, allows Türkiye to position itself as a potential mediator and maintain a degree of leverage in the conflict.
A Measured Approach to China: Economic Ties and Uyghur Concerns
Türkiye’s engagement with China presents a different dynamic. While China is a significant economic partner, ranking among Türkiye’s top three importers, the relationship is tempered by concerns over China’s human rights record, particularly the repression of the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang. Elements within the Turkish government have voiced criticism of China’s policies, creating a degree of friction that limits the depth of the strategic partnership. This contrasts sharply with the more transactional relationship with Russia, where economic considerations often outweigh political concerns.
The Shifting Sands of the Middle East
Erdoğan has made a concerted effort to reassert Turkish influence in the Middle East, a region historically within Türkiye’s sphere of influence. This has included a renewed engagement with the Arab League, with Türkiye participating in the Council of Ministers for the first time in 13 years. Crucially, Ankara has also reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian cause, strengthening its ties with Hamas and positioning itself as a key player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Did you know? Türkiye’s military interventions in Syria, Libya, and Somalia, while controversial, are often framed by Ankara as necessary to protect its regional interests and counter perceived threats to its security.
However, this assertive foreign policy has not been without its critics. Türkiye’s military interventions have drawn condemnation from some quarters, and its actions in Syria, particularly regarding the Kurdish population, have been a source of ongoing tension. Despite these criticisms, Türkiye has also played a role as a peace guarantor, mediating between Syria and Israel in the past and facilitating negotiations in the Ukraine war.
Domestic Politics and the Future of Erdoğan’s Rule
Internally, Erdoğan’s grip on power, while seemingly unshakeable for years, has shown signs of weakening. The loss of local elections in 2024, while not a fatal blow, signaled a potential shift in public sentiment. González Levaggi suggests that, like Russia, Türkiye’s political future hinges on Erdoğan’s eventual departure from power and the succession process. While Erdoğan remains a formidable political force, his longevity in office raises questions about the long-term health of Turkish democracy.
The “green elite” – conservative and religious sectors that have benefited from Erdoğan’s policies – have become increasingly influential in Turkish society. The construction of numerous mosques in recent years is a visible manifestation of this trend. However, Türkiye remains a secular state, and the constitution continues to reflect its republican foundations. The challenge for the future will be to balance these competing forces and ensure a stable and inclusive political system.
Key Takeaway:
Türkiye is a nation at a crossroads. Its strategic position, economic imperatives, and internal dynamics are converging to create a complex and unpredictable future. Successfully navigating this period will require a delicate balancing act, one that prioritizes both national interests and regional stability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Türkiye’s primary motivation in maintaining ties with Russia despite being a NATO member?
Türkiye’s relationship with Russia is largely driven by economic necessity, particularly its reliance on Russian energy supplies. It also seeks to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy and avoid being overly reliant on any single power.
How does Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan impact its relationship with Russia?
Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan creates tension with Russia, as Russia traditionally views the Caucasus region as within its sphere of influence. This dynamic highlights the competing interests and strategic rivalry between the two countries.
What role does religion play in Türkiye’s foreign policy under Erdoğan?
Erdoğan’s government has promoted a more visible role for Islam in public life, appealing to conservative and religious sectors of society. This has influenced Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly its support for the Palestinian cause and its engagement with the Arab world.
What are the potential implications of Erdoğan’s eventual departure from power?
Erdoğan’s departure from power could lead to significant political changes in Türkiye, depending on his chosen successor. The succession process will be crucial in determining the future direction of Turkish foreign policy and its relationship with the West.
What are your predictions for Türkiye’s role in the evolving geopolitical landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
