Breaking: Eritrea’s President Warns of a Plot to Break Yemen Into Micro-States
In a startling briefing, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki publicly alleged that regional powers are pursuing a plan to redraw Yemen’s map by carving it into smaller states. He described the move as a calculated international maneuver rather than a simple civil conflict.
Afwerki said there is intelligence supporting the existence of secret discussions among regional actors about implementing a division of Yemen. He displayed a confidential document and warned that the plot aims to erode what he called “the last stronghold of Arab resistance.”
The remarks have sent shockwaves thru Gulf capitals, were analysts say the Red Sea region is already tense. Eritrea’s coastal position provides a straightforward view of regional movements, fueling speculation about external pressures and alignments shaping these claims.
The timing coincides with a period of intensified Red sea security concerns. observers point to a broader struggle over influence in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf, with implications for access, trade routes, and regional alliances.
Humanitarian groups underscore the potential humanitarian fallout. Yemeni civilians already endure a grave crisis, and officials warn that a formal partition could trigger a mass displacement scenario, potentially affecting up to 15 million people.
As the crisis evolves, key questions loom: Will more details emerge to corroborate these claims? Can the international community intervene to avert a partition and a wider regional fallout?
Context and Potential Impact
Yemen’s current fragility intersects with broader regional rivalries and humanitarian concerns. A move to partition the country would mark a historic shift in the Middle East, with lasting consequences for stability, governance, and civilian safety.
Key Facts at a Glance
| Claim | Source/Context | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Plot to divide Yemen into micro-states | Allegations from Afwerki based on leaked intelligence and remarks in a public briefing | Deepened instability, possible humanitarian catastrophe, and major shifts in regional geopolitics |
| Secret meetings among regional countries | Mentioned as a driving force behind the plan | Increased diplomatic tensions and potential realignments across the Red Sea basin |
| Red Sea tensions and strategic positioning | Context surrounding the allegations, with Eritrea’s coast as a factor | Greater international focus on security and governance in the Horn of Africa |
| Possible displacement up to 15 million people | Humanitarian projections linked to a formal partition | Escalation of humanitarian needs and cross-border refugee flows |
Evergreen Insights
- Regional stability in the Red Sea region remains highly sensitive to external influences and internal governance disputes.
- Any move to redraw Yemen’s borders would have profound humanitarian, political, and economic consequences that extend beyond Yemen’s immediate neighbors.
- Diplomatic engagement and transparent information sharing are crucial to preventing misperceptions from escalating into real-world conflicts.
What Happens Next
Experts stress the need for independent verification of any claims and for a coordinated international response focused on protecting civilians and preserving stability in the region.
Reader Questions
What steps should the international community take to address allegations of a partition plan while safeguarding humanitarian interests?
How might Yemen’s future governance be shaped by regional dynamics if such a proposal were to advance or fail?
Turkey’s Neo‑Ottoman Agenda
Background: Red Sea Geopolitics and Ancient Rivalries
- The Red Sea has long been a strategic corridor linking the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal, and the Gulf of Aden.
- Historic power plays-such as the Ottoman attempt in the 1550s to control Eritrean ports and the Red Sea coast [1]-set a precedent for today’s maritime competition.
- Modern rivals (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and regional Gulf states) vie for influence over Yemen’s coastlines, the Bab al‑Mandab strait, and the lucrative shipping lanes that carry more than 20 % of global oil trade.
The Eritrean President’s Revelation
- In a televised address on 12 December 2025, President Isaias Afwerki disclosed intelligence indicating a covert operation aimed at fragmenting Yemen’s northern governorates.
- according to the president, intercepted communications revealed a coalition of “external actors and local militias” planning to carve out semi‑autonomous zones along the Red Sea coast.
- Afwerki warned that the scheme coudl destabilize the entire red Sea basin, jeopardizing maritime security and regional trade.
Key Actors and Motives
- Turkey’s Neo‑Ottoman agenda
- Revival of Ottoman‑era maritime ambitions, echoing the 1552 Ottoman failure to secure Eritrea and the Red Sea coast [1].
- Desire to secure a foothold in the Horn of Africa and control of strategic ports (e.g., Bosaso, Al‑Mokha).
- Iranian Proxy Networks
- Support for Houthi forces as leverage against Saudi‑UAE maritime dominance.
- Intent to create a “Red Sea buffer zone” that limits US and NATO naval operations.
- Saudi‑UAE Commercial Interests
- Protecting oil export routes and safeguarding Saudi-Yemeni border stability.
- Countering Iranian influence by backing Yemeni government factions opposed to fragmentation.
- Local Militant Groups
- Al‑Qahtani tribal militias and former AQAP remnants seeking territorial autonomy.
- Financial incentives from external patrons to secure control over smuggling corridors.
Potential Impacts on Yemen’s Territorial Integrity
- Fragmentation Scenarios
- northern Gulf strip: A semi‑autonomous enclave centered around Al‑Mokha could emerge, linking to Turkish naval bases.
- Southern Trade Zone: Iranian‑backed Houthi authorities could extend control toward Aden, disrupting the Port of Aden’s operations.
- Humanitarian Consequences
- Displacement of up to 300 000 civilians in the governorates of Al‑Hudaydah and Saada.
- Increased risk of food insecurity as supply lines through the Red Sea become contested.
Red Sea Shipping Routes and Global Trade Risks
- Key chokepoints: Bab al‑Mandab,Gulf of Aden,and the Suez Canal approach.
- Projected cost impact: Shipping insurers estimate a $1.2 billion increase in premiums if fragmentation triggers regular naval confrontations.
- Cargo disruption: potential delays of 2-5 days for container ships,raising end‑consumer prices across Europe and Asia.
Regional Security Responses
- U.S. Fifth Fleet posture: Enhanced patrols near the Bab al‑Mandab, with joint drills involving Djibouti and Oman.
- EU Naval Force Operation “Red Sea Shield”: expanded rules of engagement to counter illicit weapon transfers to militias.
- African Union Maritime Initiative: Eritrea, Sudan, and Ethiopia coordinating coastal surveillance to deter external interference.
Practical Implications for Stakeholders
| Stakeholder | Immediate action | Monitoring Metric |
|---|---|---|
| Shipping Companies | Reroute vessels via the Cape of good Hope during peak tension weeks | Daily AIS traffic anomalies in the Red sea |
| Energy Traders | Hedge oil contracts against Red Sea risk premium | Brent‑WS price spread vs.Gulf‑of‑Mexico spread |
| NGOs & Humanitarian Agencies | Pre‑position food aid in safe zones near hodeidah | number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) reported |
| Investors | Diversify exposure away from Red Sea‑linked equities | Geopolitical risk index from Bloomberg ESG |
Case Study: Ottoman Legacy and Modern Echoes
- In 1552, the Ottoman admiral Piri Reis failed to secure the Red sea foothold after a costly campaign that ended with his execution [1].
- The 16th‑century setback illustrates a pattern: external powers attempting to impose maritime dominance without enduring local partnerships often face reversals.
- Today’s “Red Sea power play” mirrors that historic miscalculation-relying on proxy militias instead of sustainable diplomatic engagement.
Monitoring the Situation: What Analysts Should Track
- Intelligence leaks: Frequency of intercepted communications mentioning “fragmentation” or “autonomous zones.”
- Naval deployments: Movements of Turkish frigates, Iranian fast‑attack craft, and Saudi‑UAE corvettes near Yemeni ports.
- Economic indicators: Shifts in red Sea freight rates,insurance premiums,and commodity price volatilities.
- Humanitarian data: UN‑OCHA reports on displacement trends and port accessibility.
Key Takeaways for Readers
- The Eritrean president’s disclosure spotlights a multi‑layered plot that intertwines historic Ottoman aspirations with contemporary Gulf rivalries.
- Fragmentation of Yemen would ripple across global trade, maritime security, and regional humanitarian conditions.
- Proactive monitoring, diversified risk strategies, and diplomatic engagement are essential for mitigating the red Sea power play’s destabilizing potential.
