Germany is shifting gears on the topic of EU enlargement, with significant discussions surrounding the potential accession of new member states, particularly Ukraine. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos recently emphasized the realistic perspective of new member states joining in the coming years during her visit to the German Council on Foreign Relations on March 4, 2026. However, she cautioned that the EU must prepare for these developments.
Amid ongoing efforts to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, driven largely by U.S. Initiatives, the European Commission has proposed various reforms aimed at facilitating Ukraine’s EU membership, potentially as soon as next year. One controversial proposal aimed to fast-track Ukraine’s accession by initially formalizing its membership while deferring the fulfillment of standard criteria. This idea, known as “reverse enlargement” or “phased integration,” faced immediate backlash from EU ambassadors who called for more realistic approaches that consider political sensitivities and varying levels of public support across EU member states.
While the proposal for “phased integration” has been met with skepticism, the possibility of revising the accession model remains open. Key decisions regarding candidate countries and the timeline for these reforms are now firmly in the hands of EU member states, necessitating careful consideration of competing priorities within their domestic contexts.
Germany’s Evolving Stance
Historically, Germany has adopted a passive stance on EU enlargement, often characterized by a “wait and see” approach. However, in recent weeks, the German government has entered a more proactive phase, particularly concerning Ukraine’s EU aspirations. The coalition government, led by the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), has begun to clarify its position on enlargement, driven by the anticipation of the European Commission’s proposals on accession reform.
Within this coalition, the CDU/CSU holds significant influence over the enlargement agenda, particularly as both the chancellor and foreign minister hail from this party for the first time in decades. Meanwhile, the junior coalition partner, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), has limited input on EU enlargement discussions, which may affect the overall approach to candidate countries.
Political Dynamics and Challenges
The internal deliberations within the CDU/CSU are further complicated by the cautious stance of its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which has expressed a preference for prioritizing internal reforms and impact assessments in upcoming EU budgets before considering any new accession models. Germany’s domestic political landscape is set to undergo significant changes, with regional elections taking place in five of its 16 federal states throughout 2026. The first of these elections, held in Baden-Württemberg, resulted in a victory for the Green Party on March 8.
These elections are perceived as a crucial indicator of the national mood, especially with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) competing closely with Chancellor Merz’s CDU/CSU in the polls. High-ranking officials within the CDU/CSU emphasize the necessity of viewing EU enlargement through a “geopolitical logic,” advocating for a merit-based approach that adheres to the Copenhagen criteria, especially concerning the rule of law.
Ukraine’s Path Forward
Germany remains the largest European donor to Ukraine, providing extensive military, humanitarian, and financial support. Its primary goal has been to ensure Ukraine’s survival as an independent state. While Berlin has consistently backed Kyiv in its EU-related reforms—particularly in the areas of rule of law and anti-corruption—its focus has largely shifted toward addressing Ukraine’s immediate defense and economic needs rather than its long-term EU ambitions.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has yet to show strong engagement with the EU enlargement topic. His approach has been sporadic, often influenced by external diplomatic pressures. At a recent Munich Security Conference, he expressed discomfort with the current enlargement strategy, asserting the necessitate for the EU to enhance its approach to integrating Western Balkan countries further.
Wider Enlargement Considerations
The discussion of enlargement extends beyond Ukraine. Germany views Montenegro as a potential frontrunner in the Western Balkans and a success story that could catalyze further enlargement momentum. Efforts to elevate Montenegro’s political profile within Europe have included persuading the government in Podgorica to lead the Berlin Process for regional cooperation this year.
Meanwhile, Albania is seen as needing to achieve a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR) from the European Commission before being deemed ready for accession negotiations. Berlin has adopted a stringent stance regarding recent high-profile corruption cases in Albania, insisting on thorough investigations into implicated ministers. If Albania meets the IBAR requirements, it could join Montenegro and Iceland in an enlargement package deal, which might also consider granting special pre-membership status to Ukraine and Moldova.
Germany has also maintained an open door toward Serbia, recognizing that successful EU integration of the entire Western Balkan region is closely linked to Serbia’s accession. However, Serbia’s failure to meet prior EU commitments regarding the rule of law and its domestic political issues have complicated its accession prospects significantly.
Looking Ahead
The future of EU enlargement appears to hinge on Germany’s evolving stance. The latest Eurobarometer poll indicates that about 49 percent of Germans view enlargement positively, slightly below the EU average. The Bundestag and Bundesrat will play pivotal roles in ratifying any new accession treaties, and the current coalition will need to garner support from opposition parties, especially considering the potential impact of rising far-right sentiments in regional governments.
As discussions continue, the focus will remain on balancing the immediate needs of candidate countries with broader EU reform considerations. Germany’s proactive engagement could signal a shift in the EU’s enlargement narrative, but the path remains fraught with political complexities and public sentiment challenges. Stakeholders will closely monitor these developments as they unfold.
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