The Shadow War in Europe: Why Transnational Repression is the Next Major Security Threat
Over 100 individuals have been targeted on European soil in the last decade, not by traditional espionage, but by a chilling tactic: transnational repression. This isn’t a future dystopia; it’s happening now, and a new report commissioned by the European Parliament warns that a coordinated response is urgently needed to counter this rising tide of cross-border authoritarian coercion. The stakes are higher than many realize, extending beyond individual human rights to the very foundations of democratic sovereignty.
Understanding the New Landscape of Repression
Transnational repression, as the report emphasizes, is a complex phenomenon encompassing a range of actions – from harassment and intimidation of family members back home, to digital threats like doxxing and account suspensions, and even physical violence carried out by proxy actors. It’s a deliberate attempt by authoritarian regimes to silence dissent and extend their control beyond their borders. The recent findings, building on the groundbreaking China Targets investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), reveal a disturbing pattern of abuse.
This isn’t simply about silencing critics; it’s about eroding democratic principles. As Alexander Dukalskis, a co-author of the report from the University of Dublin, explains, “It infringes on the rights of victims, but it also degrades democratic participation and infringes on sovereignty.” The use of international institutions like the United Nations and Interpol to issue Red Notices for political reasons, as documented by ICIJ, demonstrates a brazen disregard for international norms.
The China Factor and Beyond
While China’s expansive campaign to silence overseas dissidents – detailed in China Targets – is a significant driver of this trend, it’s not the sole source. The report highlights a marked increase in transnational repression originating from Russia and Iran as well. However, the EU’s response has been uneven. “Compared to the actions taken against Russia and Iran, European responses to China’s use of transnational repression appear to have been weaker,” the report notes, a disparity potentially linked to significant economic ties.
Emile Dirks, a co-author from the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, points to the delicate balance many European nations strike between condemning human rights abuses and maintaining crucial trade relationships with China. This economic calculus creates a reluctance to impose robust countermeasures, even as the threat escalates. This is a critical point: economic interests are actively hindering a strong, unified response.
The Digital Frontline: A Systemic Risk
The digital realm has become a key battleground in this shadow war. The report rightly identifies transnational repression as a “systemic risk” under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). This means that platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and others have a responsibility to address the issue. Strengthening data protection clauses and actively monitoring for coordinated harassment campaigns are crucial steps. However, enforcement remains a significant challenge.
The use of proxy actors – criminal organizations hired to carry out surveillance, harassment, or even violence – adds another layer of complexity. This outsourcing of repression makes attribution difficult and allows authoritarian regimes to maintain plausible deniability. France, Germany, and Poland have seen a disproportionate number of these incidents, according to Freedom House data, highlighting the need for targeted protection measures in these countries.
The Vulnerability of Activists and Dissidents
Those targeted by transnational repression often face unique vulnerabilities. Many are recent immigrants with precarious legal status, making them hesitant to report threats to authorities. Lack of trust in law enforcement, coupled with fear of retaliation against family members back home, creates a climate of silence. The report rightly calls for increased resources and support systems for victims, including legal aid, safe housing, and mental health services.
Looking Ahead: Towards a Coordinated European Response
The European Parliament’s recent resolution to create a unified definition of transnational repression is a positive step, but it’s only the beginning. Nate Schenkkan, the lead author of the report, emphasizes the need for a clear mandate and assigned responsibility. “There’s clearly awareness of transnational repression as an idea,” he says, “There is an unclear mandate, though, to work on it.” Without a designated authority to coordinate efforts and drive action, progress will remain slow.
The future will likely see an increase in sophisticated tactics, including the exploitation of artificial intelligence for disinformation campaigns and the use of cyberattacks to silence dissent. The EU must proactively invest in its ability to detect, deter, and respond to these evolving threats. This includes strengthening intelligence sharing between member states, imposing targeted sanctions on perpetrators, and developing a robust legal framework to protect victims. Ignoring this growing threat isn’t an option; the integrity of European democracies is on the line. What steps will the EU take to prioritize this emerging security challenge and safeguard its citizens and values?
