EUR/USD: Critical Levels to Monitor Before U.S. Employment Report Release

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What impact would a 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.5% likely have on the EUR/USD exchange rate?

EUR/USD: Critical Levels too Monitor Before U.S. Employment Report Release

The upcoming U.S. Employment Report is poised to be a notable market mover, particularly for the EUR/USD currency pair.Traders are keenly focused on potential volatility, and identifying key technical levels before the release is crucial for informed decision-making. this article outlines those critical levels, incorporating analysis of price action, Fibonacci retracements, and potential breakout scenarios. We’ll cover both bullish and bearish perspectives, offering a comprehensive view for forex traders.

Key Support and Resistance Levels – Current Landscape

As of August 13, 2025, the EUR/USD is navigating a period of consolidation.Identifying immediate support and resistance is paramount.

Immediate Resistance: 1.0850 – This level has capped upside attempts multiple times in the past week. A sustained break above this could signal a bullish continuation.

Second Resistance: 1.0900 – A psychological level and previous swing high. Expect potential selling pressure here.

Immediate Support: 1.0780 – A short-term support level formed by recent buying activity.

Key Support: 1.0750 – This level coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and represents a critical defense for the bulls. A break below this could accelerate downside momentum.

Strong Support: 1.0700 – A longer-term support level, representing a potential buying opportunity for those anticipating a bounce.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels & Potential reversal Zones

Fibonacci retracement levels offer valuable insights into potential reversal zones. Applying these to the recent EUR/USD swing (from the July 2025 low to the August 2025 high) reveals:

38.2% Retracement: 1.0820 – A potential area for a short-term bounce.

50% Retracement: 1.0770 – A key level to watch. A break below this suggests further downside.

61.8% retracement: 1.0720 – A significant level where buyers might step in, potentially forming a double bottom.

Traders should monitor these Fibonacci levels in conjunction with price action and other technical indicators. Using Fibonacci extensions can also help project potential profit targets following a breakout. EURUSD analysis frequently enough incorporates these tools.

Analyzing Potential Breakout Scenarios

The U.S. Employment Report could trigger significant breakouts. Here’s a breakdown of potential scenarios:

1. Bullish Breakout (Positive Employment Data):

Trigger: A strong U.S. jobs report (above 250k jobs added, unemployment rate below 3.7%) could weaken the dollar and propel EUR/USD higher.

Target 1: 1.0900 – Initial target,as mentioned above.

Target 2: 1.0950 – A previous high from June 2025.

Stop-Loss: Below 1.0780 – Protecting against a false breakout.

2. Bearish Breakout (Negative Employment Data):

Trigger: A weak U.S. jobs report (below 100k jobs added, unemployment rate above 3.9%) could strengthen the euro and push EUR/USD lower.

Target 1: 1.0750 – Initial target, testing the 50-day SMA.

Target 2: 1.0700 – A key support level.

Stop-Loss: Above 1.0850 – Protecting against a false breakdown.

impact of U.S. Treasury yields on EUR/USD

U.S.Treasury yields play a crucial role in influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate. A rise in yields typically strengthens the dollar, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, falling yields can weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD.

10-Year Treasury Yield: Monitor the 10-year yield closely. A break above 4.5% could signal further dollar strength.

2-Year Treasury yield: This yield is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy. Watch for any significant shifts in expectations regarding future rate hikes or cuts