Breaking: ECB Holds Rates, Euro stalls Near 1.17 After Meeting
Teh euro barely moved near 1.1700 as the European Central Bank kept its key rates unchanged in a broadly anticipated decision, offering little fresh directional signal for the single currency.
The main refinancing rate stayed at 2.15 percent, while the deposit facility remained at 2.0 percent. Officials reaffirmed a cautious,data‑dependent approach,signaling a willingness to move on a meeting‑by‑meeting basis.
During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde indicated that policy makers did not discuss a rate hike or a cut at this juncture. She stressed that there is no pre‑set path for rates and, given elevated uncertainty, forward guidance on policy moves cannot be provided at this time.
Alongside the decision, the ECB published its latest quarterly projections. Growth forecasts were nudged higher to 1.4 percent for 2025, 1.2 percent for 2026,and 1.4 percent for 2027.The inflation outlook for 2026 was revised up, driven mainly by persistent price pressures in the services sector.
Technical Update: EUR/USD
Fourth‑hour view (H4)
In the H4 frame, the pair finished a corrective rally to around 1.1760 and is now forming a downward impulse aimed at 1.1706. A break below this level would open the next downside target near 1.1640.
The setup is reinforced by the MACD, whose signal line remains above zero but is turning downward, signaling ongoing bearish momentum and the potential for further declines.
One‑hour view (H1)
The intraday chart shows an initial drop to 1.1705, a brief rebound to 1.1755, and a renewed move lower. A decisive break below 1.1705 would point to a third leg lower, with 1.1645 as a local objective.
The Stochastic oscillator supports a bearish stance, with its signal line below the 50 level and trending down.
Conclusion
Trading in the euro remains range‑bound after a largely uneventful ECB gathering. The central bank’s cautious, data‑dependent stance offers little fresh directional support, while the technical picture points to downside risk if the 1.1705 barrier gives way.
Should the euro break below 1.1705, a move toward the 1.1640 area appears more likely in the near term.
Key facts At A Glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Main Refinancing Rate | 2.15% |
| Deposit Facility | 2.0% |
| Growth Forecast 2025 | 1.4% |
| Growth Forecast 2026 | 1.2% |
| Growth Forecast 2027 | 1.4% |
| Inflation Forecast 2026 | Higher – services prices driving the revision |
| EUR/USD Near Level | Approximately 1.1700 (post‑decision trading) |
For more context on central bank statistics, see the European Central Bank’s statistics portal at ECB Statistics.
What This Means for Investors
Policy clarity remains data‑driven, underscoring the importance of upcoming inflation and growth data for any meaningful shift in policy posture. The technical setup suggests traders should watch for a decisive break of 1.1705 before committing to new longer‑term bets.
Engagement Questions
Where do you see the EUR/USD heading in the next few weeks, given the current data trajectory?
How will the ECB’s data‑dependent stance shape your trading or hedging strategy in the coming months?
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects current market conditions and is not financial advice.Market movements involve risk,and readers should perform their own due diligence before trading.
Share your take and join the discussion below. Do you expect the euro to push toward 1.1640 or rebound toward 1.1800 in the near term?
