The Formula 1 grid is bracing for a season of change, with new regulations and the arrival of Cadillac poised to shake up the established order. As teams prepare for the first 24 grands prix of the year – contingent on the status of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian races – speculation is rife about the potential for upsets and the continuation of McLaren’s recent dominance. But one particularly bold prediction is turning heads: a leading F1 commentator believes reigning champion Max Verstappen may not finish the 2026 season as a Red Bull driver.
The forecast comes from David Croft, lead commentator for Sky Sports F1, who, whereas acknowledging the speculative nature of his claim, stated his belief that Verstappen will be elsewhere by the end of the 2026 season. “Now this might not arrive true, and it might not have any basis in fact whatsoever,” Croft said, “but here is my bold prediction for 2026…that by the time we come to the end of 2026, Max Verstappen won’t be a Red Bull driver!” This prediction arrives after Lando Norris clinched the 2025 Formula 1 world championship, beating out Verstappen by a mere two points at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix as reported by Sports Illustrated.
The suggestion raises questions about the long-term stability of Verstappen’s relationship with Red Bull, despite his continued success. Verstappen secured his third consecutive driver’s championship in 2024, and his dominance has been a defining feature of recent Formula 1 seasons. However, the competitive landscape is shifting, with McLaren emerging as a serious contender, and other teams investing heavily in their programs.
McLaren’s Momentum and the 2026 Regulations
Croft’s prediction arrives as Formula 1 prepares to implement significant regulatory changes for 2026. These changes are expected to impact car design and performance, potentially leveling the playing field and creating new opportunities for teams to challenge Red Bull’s supremacy. The arrival of Cadillac as a new team on the grid further adds to the uncertainty, introducing another competitor into the mix.
The Sky Sports F1 team offered a range of other predictions for the upcoming season. Bernie Collins and Naomi Schiff both tipped George Russell to claim the driver’s championship, while Jenson Button suggested Fernando Alonso of Aston Martin could secure a victory late in the year, potentially becoming one of the oldest grand prix winners in F1 history at the age of 45. These predictions highlight the perceived potential for disruption and the unpredictable nature of the sport.
Verstappen’s future has been a topic of discussion in the paddock, particularly following a challenging start to the 2025 season. During the 2025 Miami Grand Prix, Verstappen engaged in a fierce battle with Lando Norris on the opening lap, a contest Norris later described as “crash or don’t pass unless you get it really right” when battling the reigning World Champion according to Formula 1’s official website. Norris ultimately lost momentum in that exchange, dropping back to sixth place, but the incident underscored the intensity of competition and the risks involved in challenging Verstappen on track.
Norris’ Championship and Verstappen’s Response
The 2025 season culminated in a dramatic championship battle between Norris, Verstappen, and Norris’ McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri. Norris ultimately secured his first world championship title at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, finishing third while Verstappen won the race as reported by Yahoo Sports. The victory marked McLaren’s first constructors’ championship since 2004 and ended Red Bull’s four-year reign.
While Verstappen has not publicly commented on Croft’s prediction, his recent criticisms of the new generation of Formula 1 cars suggest a potential dissatisfaction with the direction of the sport. Motorsport.com reports that Norris has even teased Verstappen over these complaints, suggesting he could retire if he’s unhappy. This discontent could potentially fuel speculation about his future with Red Bull.
As the 2026 season approaches, all eyes will be on Verstappen and Red Bull to see how their relationship evolves. The new regulations and the emergence of competitive rivals like McLaren will undoubtedly present challenges, and the possibility of Verstappen seeking a new opportunity cannot be ruled out. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Croft’s bold prediction will come to fruition.
The 2026 Formula 1 season promises to be a captivating one, filled with uncertainty and potential for dramatic shifts in the competitive landscape. What impact will the new regulations have on team performance? Will McLaren be able to defend their titles? And, most intriguingly, where will Max Verstappen be racing by the end of the year? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below.
