The French economy should continue to show resilience, with a stabilization of activity in January following a “slight increase” at the end of 2022, despite the energy and inflationary shocks, the Banque de France said on Wednesday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth would reach 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a “slight increase in December”, the central bank said in its monthly economic note. It should then become “almost stable” in January 2023.
“Resilience is confirmed and even prolonged”, underlined the director general of the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier, during a press briefing.
GDP growth should thus reach 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, taking into account the penalizing effect of the fall strikes in refineries and the maintenance of nuclear power plants, with a “slight increase in December”, depending on the institution.
It should then become “almost stable” in January.
For the whole of 2022, the Banque de France confirmed its forecast for growth of 2.6% (compared to 2.5% for INSEE and 2.7% for the government), before a sharp decline in 2023, to +0.3% according to its main scenario.
But there are still “a lot of uncertainties weighing on the first quarter”, noted Mr. Garnier. A “limited and temporary” recession is not excluded by the institution.
In the medium term, the Banque de France expects an economic cycle with three “Rs”: resilience, slowdown and recovery from 2024.
In detail, activity continued to grow in December in industry, services and construction, more strongly than expected the previous month, according to the results of the latest monthly survey carried out by the central bank among 8,500 heads. business between December 20 and January 5.
In January, activity should progress a little in services and industry, with however strong sectoral disparities: decline in clothing or rubber-plastic in particular, and rise in pharmaceuticals, automobiles or aeronautics. She would be stable in the building.
