Germany: investor morale improves in February

The indicator, particularly unstable, stood at 71.2 points, up 9.4 points over one month, after an increase of close to 7 points in January.

Investor morale took another boost in February in Germany, despite the extension of most restrictions against Covid until early March, according to the ZEW barometer. The indicator, particularly unstable, stood at 71.2 points, up 9.4 points over one month, after an increase of close to 7 points in January and 16 points in December, which reversed a series of decreases.

It is much better than the forecasts of analysts compiled by the financial service provider Factset, who expected a barometer in slight decline to 60 points. Investors “are convinced that the German economy will return to a growth path within six months” via a “catching-up process” on the consumption side which should benefit the retail trade, note in the press release released Tuesday Achim Wambach, chairman of the ZEW institute.

In the euro zone, investor sentiment improved by 11.3 points to 69.6 points. The investigation was carried out between February 8 and 15, as Germany decided to extend until at least March 7 most of the restrictions taken to fight Covid-19, due to the spread of variants of the virus and despite the weariness of public opinion and professional federations.

The component of the barometer measuring the current economic situation therefore shows a slight drop over one month to -67.2 points (-0.8). As in January, inflation is expected to rise sharply for both Germany and the euro zone over the coming months.

The ramp-up of vaccination campaigns should make it possible to revive the consumption of goods and services, by putting pressure on prices.

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