Global South’s Influence on International Order in the Trump Era: A World Economic Perspective by Ha Hyunok

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Global Economic Order Faces Reset as New Alliances Emerge

The Global Economic landscape is undergoing a significant conversion, marked by the decline of a decades-old multilateral trade order adn the rise of new economic power blocs. Experts are describing this shift as a potential reset of the global economic system, not seen in nearly 80 years.

Recent announcements signal a departure from the established World Trade Association (WTO) system, with proposals for a new framework dubbed the “Trump Round,” focused on reducing trade barriers through tariff adjustments.

The Rise of the ‘Trump Front’

A coalition of nations, dubbed the ‘Trump front’, is actively forming, driven by nations impacted by increased tariffs and seeking choice economic partnerships. Key players include China,India,and Brazil,who have all been affected by the United States’ trade policies.

Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva has engaged in discussions with both indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, strengthening ties and exploring new avenues for economic cooperation. Renewed diplomatic efforts between China and India, including a potential visit by Prime Minister Modi to China for the SCO summit, are further evidence of this evolving alignment.

Russia is also playing a critical role in these emerging alliances, with President Vladimir Putin actively engaging with leaders from China, India, and Brazil, solidifying a front against Western economic pressures.

The global South: A New Economic Force

At the heart of this realignment is the growing influence of the Global South – a collective of over 120 developing countries across Asia, africa, and South America. This bloc represents a significant economic force, accounting for 21% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to a recent Deutsche bank report. This places the Global South as a weighty competitor to the United States (27%), Europe (23%), and China (19%).

The Global South also holds considerable growth potential, with an anticipated average annual economic growth rate of 6.3% between 2023 and 2029,outpacing the Global North’s 3.9%. Furthermore, 63% of the world’s working-age population resides within the Global South, offering a substantial demographic advantage.

Resource Wealth and Trade Shifts

The Global South is rich in essential resources, controlling 41% of the minerals crucial for energy and electric vehicle battery production. This includes significant reserves of lithium (Chile), nickel (Indonesia), cobalt (Democratic Republic of Congo), and other key minerals.

This resource wealth is driving shifts in global trade patterns. China is increasingly sourcing food imports from South American countries like Brazil, while also expanding its economic presence in Africa through mining investments.

Challenges to the Petro dollar System

The growing influence of the Global South also presents a potential challenge to the long-standing Petro Dollar system – the practice of pricing oil in US dollars. As China’s economic power grows and its demand for oil increases,it is exploring alternatives,including settling oil transactions in Yuan. Instances of India and Pakistan purchasing Russian crude oil using Yuan further demonstrate this trend, which may erode the dominance of the US dollar in international trade.

Key Economic Indicators: Global South vs. Global North

Indicator	Global South	Global North
GDP Share (2024)	21%	27%
Average Annual GDP Growth (2023-2029)	6.3%	3.9%
Working-Age population Share	63%	37%
Global Trade Share	25%	N/A

Potential Pitfalls and Considerations

Despite its promising potential, the Global South faces challenges, including low education levels, corruption, and significant national debt. Addressing these issues will be crucial for realizing its full economic potential.

long-Term Implications

The shift in global economic power has far-reaching implications for international relations, trade, and investment. The emergence of a multipolar world order could lead to increased competition but also opportunities for greater collaboration and innovation. Understanding these dynamics is essential for businesses and policymakers alike.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the Global South? the Global South refers to developing and emerging economies located primarily in the Southern Hemisphere, but also includes countries in the Northern Hemisphere.
2. what is the “Trump Round?” A proposed new trade framework advocating for the elimination of trade barriers through tariff adjustments.
3. How is the Petro dollar system being challenged? China and other nations are exploring alternative currencies for oil transactions, possibly reducing the dominance of the US dollar.
4. What role does Russia play in the emerging alliances? Russia serves as a key partner for China, India, and Brazil, solidifying a front against Western-lead economic policies.
5. What are the biggest challenges facing the Global South? These include issues such as low education levels, corruption, and high national debt.

What impact will these shifting alliances have on your

How did the Trump governance’s trade wars specifically create opportunities for countries in the global South to attract foreign direct investment?

Global South’s Influence on international Order in the Trump Era: A World Economic Outlook

The shifting Sands of Global Power

The Trump era (2017-2021) witnessed a significant recalibration of the international order, marked by a deliberate US retreat from multilateralism and a surge in economic nationalism. While often framed as a US-centric shift, this period also catalyzed a growing influence of the Global South – nations in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania – on the global economic landscape. Ha Hyunok’s research provides a crucial lens through which to understand this dynamic, focusing on how emerging economies leveraged opportunities and navigated challenges presented by the changing US foreign policy. This analysis delves into the economic dimensions of this influence, examining trade, investment, and institutional reforms.

Trump’s Policies and the Global South: A Disruption of the status Quo

several key Trump administration policies directly impacted the Global South’s economic trajectory:

Trade Wars: The imposition of tariffs on goods from China, and threats to other nations, disrupted global supply chains. this created both vulnerabilities and opportunities for countries in the Global South to reposition themselves as alternative manufacturing hubs and trading partners. Vietnam, for example, saw a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) as companies sought to diversify away from China.

withdrawal from Multilateral Agreements: The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Agreement created a vacuum in global governance. this prompted countries like China to step up and champion multilateralism,offering alternative frameworks for economic cooperation.

Sanctions and Geopolitical Pressure: Increased use of sanctions, particularly against Iran and Venezuela, had ripple effects across the Global South, impacting trade flows and investment.

“america First” Foreign Aid Cuts: Reductions in US foreign aid forced many developing nations to seek alternative sources of funding, frequently enough turning to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

These policies, while intended to prioritize US interests, inadvertently empowered the Global South to assert greater agency in the international system. The concept of South-South cooperation gained prominence as nations sought to build economic partnerships independent of traditional Western dominance.

China’s Ascendancy and the BRI’s Impact

China’s economic rise was arguably the most significant factor shaping the Global south’s influence during the Trump era. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, became a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy, offering substantial infrastructure investment to countries across asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Infrastructure Progress: the BRI funded projects like railways, ports, and energy infrastructure, addressing critical development needs in many Global South nations.

Increased Trade and Investment: The initiative facilitated increased trade and investment between China and participating countries, fostering economic growth.

Geopolitical Influence: The BRI expanded China’s geopolitical influence, challenging the US-led international order.

Though,the BRI also faced criticism regarding debt sustainability,environmental concerns,and lack of transparency. The case of Sri lanka’s Hambantota port, leased to China for 99 years after the country struggled to repay its debts, serves as a cautionary tale. This highlights the complexities of debt-trap diplomacy and the need for careful consideration of the long-term implications of BRI projects.

Regional Integration and Alternative Institutions

Beyond China, other actors in the Global South actively pursued regional integration and the development of alternative international institutions:

BRICS Expansion: The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) strengthened their cooperation, establishing the New Development Bank (NDB) as an alternative to the world Bank and the International monetary Fund (IMF). The recent expansion of BRICS to include nations like saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, UAE, and Ethiopia further solidifies its position as a counterweight to Western-dominated institutions.

African Continental Free Trade Area (afcfta): The launch of the AfCFTA in 2019 aimed to create a single market for goods and services across Africa, boosting intra-African trade and economic integration.

ASEAN’s Role: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to play a crucial role in promoting regional stability and economic cooperation in Southeast Asia.

Latin American Regionalism: efforts to strengthen regional integration in Latin America, such as through CELAC (Community of latin American and Caribbean States), aimed to reduce dependence on external powers.

These initiatives demonstrate a growing desire within the Global South to create a more multipolar international order,characterized by greater inclusivity and shared governance.

The Role of Technology and Digital Economies

The rapid growth of digital economies in the Global South also contributed to its increasing influence.

mobile Money: The widespread adoption of mobile money platforms, particularly in Africa (e.g., M-Pesa in Kenya), revolutionized financial inclusion and facilitated economic transactions.

Fintech Innovation: Fintech companies in emerging markets are driving innovation in areas like digital payments, lending, and insurance, bypassing traditional banking systems.

E-commerce growth: The expansion of e-commerce platforms is creating new opportunities for businesses in the Global South to access global markets.

* Digital Infrastructure: Investments in digital infrastructure, such as broadband internet and mobile networks