Global Supply and Trade Dynamics of Hot-Rolled Steel Products: China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Ukraine

U.S. Trade Commission Votes to Maintain Steel Duties Amid Injury Concerns

Washington, D.C. – September 19,2025 – The United States International Trade Commission (USITC) has ruled to maintain countervailing and antidumping duties on hot-rolled steel imports from China,India,Indonesia,Taiwan,Thailand,and ukraine,citing potential harm to domestic steel producers. This decision, reached after extensive five-year reviews, underscores ongoing concerns about unfair trade practices and their impact on the American manufacturing sector.

Investigation and Review Process

The commission initiated these reviews on July 1, 2024, with full reviews later determined on October 4, 2024. A public hearing was held on july 24, 2025, allowing stakeholders to present their arguments. The USITC’s determinations, made under the Tariff Act of 1930, reflect a careful consideration of the record developed throughout the review process.

Key Findings and Rationale

According to the USITC, revoking these duties would likely lead to a continuation or recurrence of material injury to the United States steel industry. This determination is based on an assessment of market conditions, import volumes, price trends, and the financial health of domestic steel companies. the Commission completed and filed its determinations on September 19,2025,detailing its findings in USITC Publication 5667.

Affected Countries and Products

The duties remain in place for hot-rolled steel products originating from the following nations:

Country	Duty Type
China	antidumping
India	Countervailing & Antidumping
Indonesia	Countervailing & Antidumping
Taiwan	Antidumping
Thailand	Countervailing & Antidumping
Ukraine	Antidumping

Did You Know? Hot-rolled steel is a fundamental material used in a wide range of industries, including construction, automotive, and energy.

Implications for the U.S. Steel Industry

This decision provides continued protection for American steel manufacturers, allowing them to compete on a more level playing field. Without these duties, domestic producers could face increased competition from unfairly priced imports, possibly leading to job losses and reduced investment. The steel industry has been a key focus for the Biden governance, emphasizing a commitment to domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience. In 2024, the U.S. steel industry contributed over $185 billion to the national economy, according to the american Iron and Steel Institute.

Pro Tip: Businesses that rely on steel should closely monitor trade policy developments and diversify their sourcing to mitigate potential risks.

What impact will this decision have on construction costs in the U.S.? And how might these duties affect global steel trade flows in the coming years?

Understanding Trade Duties and Their Purpose

Countervailing duties are imposed when a foreign government subsidizes its domestic producers, giving them an unfair advantage in the global market. Antidumping duties, conversely, are applied when foreign companies sell products in the U.S. at prices below their fair market value, a practice known as “dumping.” Both types of duties are intended to protect domestic industries from harmful trade practices and ensure fair competition.

Frequently Asked Questions about Hot-Rolled Steel Duties:

• What is hot-rolled steel? Hot-rolled steel is a metal product that has been processed at high temperatures to achieve a desired shape and properties. It is commonly used in construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure projects.
• What are countervailing duties? Countervailing duties are trade restrictions imposed to offset subsidies given to foreign producers by their governments.
• What are antidumping duties? Antidumping duties are imposed when imported goods are sold at a price lower than their normal value, causing harm to domestic producers.
• Why are these duties being reviewed? The USITC conducts five-year reviews to determine whether the continuation of duties is still necessary to prevent injury to the domestic industry.
• What is the tariff Act of 1930? the Tariff Act of 1930 is a U.S. law that provides the legal framework for regulating international trade and imposing tariffs.
• How does this affect consumers? Maintaining duties can potentially lead to slightly higher prices for goods made with steel, but it also supports American jobs and domestic production.
• Where can I find more information about this decision? USITC publication 5667 (September 2025) provides a comprehensive overview of the Commission’s findings.

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How might china’s “Dual Circulation” strategy impact global hot-rolled steel prices and availability?

China: The Dominant Force in Hot-Rolled Steel

China remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of hot-rolled steel (HRC). Its influence on global steel trade is undeniable.

* Production Capacity: Boasting a massive production capacity exceeding 1 billion metric tons annually, China caters to both domestic demand (construction, manufacturing) and international markets.

* Export Trends (2024-2025): While facing increased scrutiny regarding overcapacity and trade practices, Chinese HRC exports continue to be notable, particularly to Southeast Asian nations. Recent data indicates a slight decrease in exports due to domestic infrastructure projects and environmental regulations.

* Key Export Destinations: Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and south Korea are major importers of Chinese HRC.

* Pricing Influence: chinese steel prices heavily influence global HRC pricing, often setting the benchmark for other producers. Fluctuations in domestic Chinese demand and government policies directly impact international prices.

* Government Policies: China’s “Dual Circulation” strategy and focus on high-quality steel production are reshaping its export landscape.

India: A Rising Steel Exporter

India has emerged as a significant player in the global hot-rolled steel market, driven by increasing domestic demand and government initiatives like “Make in India.”

* Production Growth: Indian HRC production has seen significant growth in recent years, fueled by investments in new steel plants and capacity expansions.

* Export Performance: India is actively increasing its HRC exports, targeting markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

* Competitive Advantages: Lower labor costs and a growing skilled workforce contribute to India’s competitive edge.

* Infrastructure Progress: rapid infrastructure development within India is driving demand for HRC, impacting both domestic supply and export availability.

* Challenges: Dependence on imported coking coal and iron ore presents a vulnerability for the Indian steel industry.

Indonesia: growing Demand and Local Production

Indonesia’s demand for hot-rolled steel sheet is rapidly increasing, driven by infrastructure projects and a growing manufacturing sector.

* Domestic Consumption: The construction of new infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and ports, is a major driver of HRC demand.

* Local Production Capacity: Indonesia is investing in expanding its domestic HRC production capacity to reduce reliance on imports. Krakatau Steel is a key player in this expansion.

* Import Dependence: Despite increasing local production, Indonesia still relies heavily on HRC imports, primarily from China and japan.

* Trade Agreements: Regional trade agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), are influencing Indonesia’s steel trade patterns.

Taiwan: A Niche Player wiht High-Quality Steel

Taiwan specializes in producing high-quality hot rolled coil and caters to niche markets requiring specialized steel grades.

* Focus on Value-Added Products: Taiwan’s steel industry focuses on producing high-value-added steel products, including HRC for automotive and engineering applications.

* Technological Advancement: Significant investments in research and development have enabled Taiwan to produce advanced steel grades.

* Export Markets: Key export destinations include Japan, the United States, and Southeast asian countries.

* Supply Chain Resilience: Taiwan is actively working to diversify its supply chain and reduce dependence on single suppliers.

Thailand: Import-Dependent Market

Thailand is a significant importer of hot rolled steel plate,relying heavily on external sources to meet its domestic demand.

* Automotive Industry: The automotive industry is a major consumer of HRC in Thailand.

* construction Sector: Growth in the construction sector also contributes to HRC demand.

* Key Suppliers: China, Japan, and South Korea are Thailand’s primary HRC suppliers.

* Trade Barriers: Import tariffs and non-tariff barriers can influence the cost and availability of HRC in Thailand.

Ukraine: disrupted Supply Chains and Future Uncertainty

The ongoing geopolitical situation in Ukraine has severely disrupted its steel exports, impacting global supply chains.

* Pre-conflict Production: Prior to the conflict, Ukraine was a major exporter of HRC, particularly to Europe.

* Production Halt & Damage: The conflict has led to the shutdown of several steel plants and significant damage to infrastructure.

* Impact on Global Supply: The disruption of Ukrainian steel exports has contributed to higher HRC prices globally.

* Reconstruction Efforts: Future reconstruction efforts in Ukraine will likely drive demand for HRC, but the timeline for recovery remains uncertain.

* Option Sourcing: European countries are actively seeking alternative sources of HRC to replace Ukrainian supplies.

Factors Influencing HRC Trade: A Deeper Dive

Beyond country-specific dynamics, several overarching factors are shaping the global hot rolled steel trade:

* Raw Material Prices: Fluctuations in the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and scrap metal significantly impact HRC production costs and prices.

* Shipping Costs: Global shipping rates play a crucial role in determining the landed cost of HRC.

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